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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world
We start today’s analysis with Trita Parsi’s roundup of developments related to Iran, over at Substack:
“Over the past few days, progress has increased to the point that sources and officials on all sides have privately expressed a degree of optimism, and both JD Vance and Trump himself did so publicly just a few hours ago. Then, suddenly, things started to blow up on the Iranian island of Qeshm, as well as near the cities of Bandar Abbas and Ahvaz in southern Iran. The Iranians tell me that they are certain the attacks were conducted by Israel, and not the US. A senior US source tells me it wasn’t the American side… It would be completely in line with a decades-long pattern of Israeli sabotage of US-Iran diplomacy that Netanyahu would begin kinetic action on the eve of a potential breakthrough in US-Iran talks”
Parsi’s insider information directly conflicts with what an US official said to The Financial Times: “This was a defensive measure for Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets”. But, noted FT, US Central Command, which oversees American operations in the Middle East, did not respond to a request for comment. In our 3W view, this essentially confirms Parsi’s assessment. If the US had managed the operation against Qeshm, it would have been fully prepared with an official statement regarding it. The fact it was not able to respond immediately to media enquiries regarding the attack makes clear to us it was not the driving actor, but rather a spectator. The “official” spoken to by the FT in our view is just playing a role to hide all this, and in that way hide Israel’s efforts to get the War on Iran restarted.
If indeed the US wants to avoid that, then what should happen now is that the US takes a really firm stance, shows Israel who has the true power, and who therefore is boss. However, at 3W that is not what we believe will happen, for reasons we explained earlier.
And there are no indications whatsoever this is or will be happening. To the contrary, even. In an interview with The Financial Times on Tuesday, after the attack on Qeshm, US president Trump said he was content with the state of the stand-off with Iran. Asked about strong hints by Israeli prime minister Netanyahu that there would be an attack later this week, Trump said: “I’m ready, we’re ready. We’re locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it.”
This leaves the countries of the Arabian Gulf in the unenviable position of having to prepare for another round of Iranian retaliatory attacks. Several Middle Eastern countries are now raising their preparedness by running safety drills at key sites, increasing food supplies and testing military capabilities, writes The National.
Qatar says that the US and Iran are still reviewing proposals put forward by mediators to end the conflict, writes The National. But, a senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides are still far apart. In addition, writes The National, Iran is approaching last-ditch US peace talks with “maximum caution and complete pessimism”, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, because of the “experience of America violating previous agreements”.
Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, who recently received the letter from US vice president JD Vance, wrote on Tuesday on X/Twitter that “the United States’ response regarding Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing.” Writes The Jerusalem Post. Rezaei stressed that Washington must provide a full and explicit response to Iran’s seven conditions. Only then, he said, would “the Strait of Hormuz be opened.” Among Iran’s demands are a complete cessation of the war, including in Gaza and Lebanon; the comprehensive lifting of all sanctions; the return of Iran’s frozen assets; compensation for war damages; international guarantees against future attacks; and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Jerusalem Post further writes that several US military cargo aircraft which had over recent days departed from Fort Bliss, a major US Army center for air and missile defense command, were tracked arriving at bases in Israel. In addition, the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and its strike group were tracked near the Strait of Malacca in Asia. This means that the carrier is expected to reach the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by next week, potentially bringing the number of US aircraft carriers in the Middle East to three, a level of military presence not seen during previous operations.
There are two ways to interpret all these developments. The first is that as Trita Parsi said, (elements within) the US administration tried to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough, but Israel sabotaged the effort since its ambition is for continued war. The second is that the US and Israel are operating as an Alliance, and the diplomatic outreach was just part of the plan to confuse Iran and soften its defenses, ahead of a next round of attacks. Either way, 3W notes, another US – Israel Alliance attack on Iran is now essentially certain.
As to what this next attack may look like, former Trump insider Tucker Carlson alleges that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to attack Iran’s “Pickaxe Mountain” with a nuclear weapons, writes The Hindustan Times. Former CIA officer John Kiriakou, the only man ever charged over the CIA’s use of torture during the War on terror, though not for committing the crime but for whistleblowing about it, says his sources within the White House also say Trump is considering a nuclear strike on Iran, writes Trading View.
3W would not rule the possibility. We note, namely, that Elbridge Colby, US under-secretary of policy, has been pushing for a reassessment of the US nuclear doctrine, effectively proposing to break the taboo on utilizing nuclear weapons. He set this out in recent remarks at the 2026 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium, but the idea has been floating since longer, as evidenced by Trump’s decision mid-2025 for the US to resume nuclear weapons testing, as documented by the BBC.
These facts bring into focus the speculative analysis that says there is no real Israeli control over the US, nor close coordination between the US and Israel in an Alliance, but that instead the US uses Israel to hide its evil intent and actions. This speculative analysis says that the US uses Israel as a scapegoat. In the case of nuclear weapons, this would mean the US will pretend that Israel is pushing it to use the nuclear weapons, and that due to the Israeli Lobby the US cannot resist this push, such that when the nuclear weapons are indeed used and the world (justifiably) erupts in uproar over it, the anger will be directed to Israel not to the US.
The fact that at 3W we discuss this speculative analysis means that we take it seriously. But, we hasten to add, we do not agree with it. It is a very creative way to connect a number of different facts and developments. But it assumes complete global control over information and messaging, over a period of years, that in our 3W view is simply unrealistic. In addition, it does not explain why over time the US – Israel relationship has clearly changed, as we document earlier. It also does not explain whistleblowers such as Joe Kent – unless if one assumes this is also part of the elaborate US disinformation campaign.
What we at 3W have noted over the 3 years since October 7 is that there are multiple camps inside elite US politics. In the context of Iran, we twice wrote this, last week and earlier this week. There is camp that shows signs of thinking independently about what the US interests are, and how the US should go after these interests. There is another camp, however, that works to portray Israel’s interests as “aligned with US interests”, and to sell Israeli plans as “the best plan for the US to go after US interests”, such that effectively the US acts based on Israel plans in order to achieve Israel’s interests. (The recent scandal in the US about democratic politician Haley Stevens, who decided to support a republican politician for the midterm elections because the democratic candidate in her view does not support Israeli enough, we at 3W see as further evidence in support of our assessment of contemporary US politics –for many US politicians, Israel takes precedence over everything else.) Since October 7 it has been clear to us that the Israel-aligned camp, otherwise referred to as the Israel Lobby, is at present the most powerful actor in elite US politics. As far as Iran is concerned, this means war is the most likely next phase, as that is what Israel aspires to.