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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world
In western media, elections are usually held up as critical events that will determine future policy. This is mostly narrative, however, as core policies are usually “Deep State” affairs, i.e. made behind the scenes and executed irrespective of who gets voted into office.
Iran is apparently fully aware of this reality, as it has not been looking at the Israeli parliamentary elections or the US midterm elections as “pivotal moments”. It expects more attacks regardless of who takes control in Israel or of Congress, writes The New York Times. On Saturday, Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said on social media that he had met with senior leaders of the armed forces and directed them to respond to any kind or level of threat with an immediate response in order to establish “maximum deterrence.” He also directed them to be prepared to target all types of US and Israeli assets.
The Associated Press has analyzed Iran’s operations against US military assets around the region, and its conclusions make clear that the Iranian threats should be taken serious. Iran methodically took out early warning systems, before proceeding to strike and destroy aircraft, air defense systems, communications systems and other equipment crucial to base operations, AP concludes.
Against this background or elections and war preparations, US vice president JD Vance last week contacted Iranian general Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and former commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, one of the top Iranian political and military officials, to propose a renewal of comprehensive peace negotiations, writes The Wall Street Journal. Through the letter, Vance wanted to test whether Tehran and Washington could find enough common ground to persuade Trump not to give a final order for a short, intense attack on Iran in the coming weeks, WSJ says. Vance’s letter and subsequent discussions between US and Iranian officials haven’t included specifics for a peace proposal, but instead focused on a possible framework for negotiations.
At the same time, Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between the US and Iran and avoid an outbreak of war after the midterms, writes Axios. The discussions continued over the weekend in Doha, Qatar. The Qataris are prodding the U.S. and Iran to agree on a set of reciprocal steps that would be implemented over a few days and get the parties back to direct talks on the Iranian nuclear program and other issues. A US official said two competing demands have stymied the talks so far: the Trump administration’s insistence that Iran make nuclear concessions as part of resuming talks, and Iran’s stipulation that the U.S. first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow it to sell oil. The Qataris are trying to bridge the gap by convincing Iran to allow UN inspectors to visit its bombed nuclear sites as a confidence-building measure that the US would respond to with some sanctions relief.
Axios adds that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to launch a joint operation against Iran immediately after the election. Trump and Netanyahu spoke on Saturday morning over the phone to discuss the matter, writes The Times of Israel. Following the call, Trump told reporters the US wanted to destroy up to two more targets in Iran. “We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” he said. “You probably could look at Pickaxe Mountain, and you have to take care of that.”
Netanyahu is being supported by the Israel Lobby inside the Trump administration, namely Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Vance, however, is being supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading an economic pressure campaign dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast,” that he says is a great success. The sanction efforts have crippled Iran’s economy and limited its ability to generate revenue, Bessent’s US Treasury department says, according to Axios. But, it needs more time to destabilize the Iranian government and convince the Iranian leadership to make concessions at the negotiations table. The Treasury also says, for which reason Bessent is supporting the call to hold off from another round of military attacks.
Iran has respoxnded positively to the Vance letter, writes Al Jazeera. General Rezaei in an interview said, “I have read the [Vance] letter, but I have not yet responded to it. The tone has completely changed, and it is different from the previous one from Trump”. At the same time, he communicated limited willingness to compromise on the position that it set out as part of the MOU. “The recent diplomacy has been ongoing for more than a month. The Americans are insisting on negotiations, but we have said that we will not negotiate with you until our terms are fulfilled.”
The 7 conditions Iran insists on are, according to Al Jazeera: Lifting the sanctions the US imposed on Iran after the collapse of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding (MoU) in July; Reducing the US military presence in the region; Reinstating the oil waivers granted in June as part of the MoU; Releasing frozen Iranian funds, including those held in Qatar; Formally recognising the new shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz, set by Iran and Oman, and closing all other routes; and Ending the war on all fronts, particularly Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
3W notes these diplomatic developments can be explained in one of two ways. It could be the US is seeking an off ramp before the midterm elections, such that trump can present a “win” to his base. It can also be that the US seeking to trick Iran again, offering diplomacy on the eve of another military attack.
At 3W we note the latter would fit the pattern of recent history, we at 3W note. Recall that Isarel attacked the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the leadership Hamas in Qatar, when they gathered to review a supposed ceasefire offer by the US – Israel Alliance; and attacked Iran in February 2025 just when the negotiations hosted by Oman were approaching a compromise solution. The latter is also what Israel will be pushing for, we at 3W add.