The Iran War Has Changed American Politics — But Not American Strategy

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world

Today, at 3W we start our analysis with the outcome of the US midterm elections. The Republican Party was swept aside by voters, not necessarily because of a preference for the Democratic Party, but because of anger over the current state of the US economy, in particular rising prices for food and energy, writes CNBC News. Behind this, however, was the US War on Iran. NBC exit polls found that 63% of voters thought that “taking military action against Iran” was the “wrong decision,” and 74% declared it to be a “crucial” or “a major factor” in deciding their vote for Congress. US president Trump acknowledged this in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, while vice-president Vance acknowledged it via a post to X, writes The Guardian. Vance also highlighted that the anger about the War on Iran and its subsequent impact on American’s economic wellbeing was also directed at Israel, which is generally seen as having pushed the war on the US, writes the BBC. American voters’ recognition that Israel played a crucial role in getting the US to attack Iran was behind Trump announcement on the eve of the election that he would end financial military support for Israel, writes The Guardian.

It’s understandable, therefore, Iran celebrated the outcome of the midterms as a victory, writes NBC News.

The question this raises, however, is where will the US will go next? In this regard, 3W notes the following key pieces of information:

1. The US attacks on the Iranian island of Qeshm, which 3W covered in our most recent update, continue. At least two missiles reportedly struck the island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, writes The National.
2. The US blockade of Iran is also continuing. On Saturday, as part of the naval blockade the US attacked a cargo vessel as it attempted to exit the Strate of Hormuz following a visit to an Iranian port, writes The Associated Press.
3. If anything, the US trying to tighten its boockade of Iran. The US military said it’s creating a special unit to help block routes Iran uses to transport advanced weapons and other materials over land, writes Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s prime minister Mohammed bin ​Abdulrahman ⁠Al Thani says diplomacy between the US and Iran is also continuing, writes The National. Significant progress ‌had been made and Al Thani expressed confidence that a ​settlement could be reached. “We cannot wait to reach a perfect agreement; we hope to reach a good agreement,” he said. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday that he had held talks with 12 foreign ministers over the prior 48 hours, The National also writes. Calls were held separately with the foreign ministers of the UAE, Turkey, Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Tunisia and Iraq, as well as with the foreign minister of Cyprus.

Iran’s demands for a diplomatic agreement have not fundamentally changed, however. Major general Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces and commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, recently reiterated that Iran has five conditions that Tehran considers essential for establishing lasting security, writes Anadolu Ajensi. The first condition calls for ending wars on all fronts, particularly in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, while rejecting negotiations conducted under military threats. The second demands the complete lifting of sanctions against Iran and the release of frozen Iranian assets. The third calls for compensation for damage caused by wars, with Abdollahi stressing that Iran considers itself a “creditor rather than a debtor.” The fourth demands recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the replacement of the US-led security framework with what he described as a “Hormuz mechanism.” The fifth calls for guarantees against renewed military attacks and the establishment of security arrangements led by countries in the region.

In the background to the diplomacy, the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt continues to be en route to the Middle East. It is expected to arrive later this month, writes The Wall Street Journal, after which the US would have three “carrier battlegroups” in the region. In other words, preparations for an attack continue to be underway, we at 3W note.

And while the US appears to continue preparations for a new attack, Iran also continues to prepare for retaliation. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has lifted a self-imposed limit of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) on the range of its ballistic missiles, writes The Associated Press. In the 3W view, this is an Iranian threat. Tehran is essentially warning it will go after US bases all over Europe of these bases support a US attack on Iran.

On the whole, therefore, to us at 3W it seems the US and Iran continue to be on course for another round of military attacks. Despite ongoing talks, there are no indications the participants in this conflict – Israel, the US and Iran – are now more willing to compromise than they were before.

Nowhere is the trajectory towards continued conflict clearer than in Yemen. Since the war there resumed in August, until the end of October, almost 1,800 people have been killed and more than 300,000 people have been displaced, writes The New York Times. NYT adds that over the last few days, matters made a turn for the (even) worse. On Friday strikes on a crowded market in Taiz Province killed at least 30 people. Then on Saturday, airstrikes tore through the village of al-Shariya, in the Bani Hushaysh district east of the capital, Sanaa, killing at least 27 people were killed and 30 others wounded. Both these deadline events took place in areas under control of AnsarAllah.