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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
The US military on Monday evening carried out another round of strikes against Iran, its 10th consecutive night of operations, writes The National. The National further writes that Iranian media reported US air strikes hit several locations overnight, with explosions reported in southern provinces including Bushehr, Fars, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchestan. Iranian media also said two locations in eastern and western Shiraz, Fars province, were targeted, while explosions were reported near Shahid Bahonar barracks in Kerman. Iranian outlets also reported explosions in the south-eastern port city of Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchestan.
As to effectiveness of the US military operation, US intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran’s government is unlikely to feel significant impact or soften its negotiating position as a result of new rounds of US military strikes like those now underway, writes The Washington Post.
In response, Iran continues to ensure no traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, striking another tanker early morning on Wednesday, writes The Associated Press.
In addition, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it attacked and destroyed US radar and air defence assets at Kuwait’s Ahmad Al Jaber air base, writes The National. The IRGC said an early-warning radar, missile defence radar, FPS-117 radar, Patriot air defence system and satellite communications equipment linked to US air defences were hit and destroyed. The IRGC claims the operation has “cleared” the way for further waves of Iranian drones and missiles.
Iran also responded to the US horizontal escalation over the past days with a vertical escalation. On Monday, the Houthi’s in Yemen announced they are imposing a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for a blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on Sanaa International Airport, writes The Associated Press. A Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a video statement that the maritime ban against Saudi Arabia will be effective immediately, describing it as an “equation of ‘an eye for an eye.’” There were few details on how the embargo might work, but the deputy head of the Houthi media office, Nasruddin Amer, said on X that the Bab al-Mandeb strait will be closed to the Saudis.
What this all is likely to mean, in the 3W view, is the following.
It is quite clear that Kuwait is being struck much harder now than during the 40 Day War. Just as Jordan is. At the same time, in particular the UAE, to some extent Bahrain, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are being hit much less. One could speculate that this indicates the success of the Iranian military operation. In other words, Iran appears to have succeeded in removing the US ability to operate out of the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, and therefore Iran is now focusing on the “second ring” US military facilities, further out, from which the US is now forced to operate. This would explain why the US has been redeploying more and more of its military assets in the Middle East to Israel, further away from Iran, as noted by StoryChase. If this assessment were to be true, the IRGC claim regarding Kuwait would probably be true as well. And this would mean the US ability to launch military operations against Iran, and to effectively deal with Iranian counterstrikes, is gradually but systematically being reduced by Iran.
the US ability to launch military operations against Iran, and to effectively deal with Iranian counterstrikes, is gradually but systematically being reduced by Iran
According to The Financial Times, US strategists are worried that the rapid development of drone and missile technology — combined with extensive help from Russia and China — make it very likely that in a few years’ time Iran will possess weapons that are even more accurate and have a longer range.
Meanwhile, the Houthi’s move against Saudi Arabia threatens the latter’s ability to export crude oil to Asia via its export facilities in the port city of Yanbu. This further adds pressure on the global oil market, at a time global inventories are already at record lows due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg has analysed this subject in more detail.
All this means the “window of opportunity” for the US – Israel Alliance to force a military defeat upon Iran is closing. This would explain why, as Axios writes, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the US and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. And why Israel is pushing the US to escalate in a major way against Iran, urgently. The “Israeli intelligence assessment” that states Iran has moved its nuclear material into Pickaxe Mountain in order to “reconstitute its nuclear program”, as reported by Israel’s Wall Street Journal, is undoubtedly designed to make the case for a bigger military attack on Iran with a heightened sense of urgency.
At 3W we can imagine that Iran would agree to another ceasefire, without getting anything (major) in return from the US – Israel Alliance. By now it should be abundantly clear that for the Alliance a ceasefire agreement means nothing, and will only be used to “regroup and rearm” in preparation for a new round of attacks. This is clear in Gaza, where, writes The National, not only does Israel continues to sow destruction on a massive scale, killing 1,100 Palestinians and injuring nearly 4,000 since the ceasefire was agreed in October 2025; but at the same time, writes The National, the US – Israel Alliance is quietly abandoning its ceasefire-related promise to reconstruct the devastated area.
In addition, if 3W’s above speculative analysis is correct, Iran will know that the current battlefield dynamic, as well as time, are on its side, which further reduces the incentive for Iran to agree to any kind of ceasefire deal.
it would be a rational move on the part of the US – Israel Alliance, that negotiations about an “Arab led” ground operation in Iran are taking place
But at the same time, earlier 3W questioned the strategic rationale for the Alliance’s current military operation – if the 40 Days War failed, why start another, similar operation? This would only make sense if this time around, the Alliance has different cards to play. Also earlier, at 3W we speculated this might be a ground invasion of Iran. But if 3W’s speculative analysis above is correct, the Alliance does not have the luxury to properly prepare for such a complex and highly risky operation. As a result, at 3W we expect such an operation to have disastrous results for the forces being put on the ground in Iran – a risk we expect the Alliance will only be willing to take if the Arab countries and Pakistan provide the bulk of the invading forces, leaving the Americans and Israelis in coordinating and guiding positions behind the frontline.
At 3W we expect, therefore, because it would be a rational move on the part of the US – Israel Alliance, that negotiations about an “Arab led” ground operation in Iran are taking place. If the leaders of the Arab world were to cave to the Alliance request, the result is likely to be disastrous for them and the global economy – the war would significantly escalate, thousand are likely to end up dead, and destruction of world scale oil, gas and petrochemical facilities becomes next to certain.
On the other hand, if the Arab leaders were to stand up and refuse to participate in the idiocy of the US – Israel Alliance, defeat of the Alliance is almost certainly guaranteed. The US will have to accept military defeat. If the Arab leaders were to use this opportunity to build a new, inclusive security arrangement for the Gulf region, they could come out of the current mess in much stronger position – less exposed to regional conflict, with more freedom (from US interference) to manoeuvre and pursue their own nations’ interests (instead of those of Washington DC).