|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In our most recent analyses, at 3W we concluded that the current escalation in fighting around the Person-Arabian Gulf is evidence that Israel has again been able to win the US over to its point of view. We also concluded that the US – Israel Alliance appears to believe that repeating its actions of the 40 Day War of March and April 2026 will, somehow, lead to a different outcome this time around. And, we said, it should be expected to end in another defeat of the US, which inside the US will propel forward the view that the “strategic partnership” with Israel should be reset, in other words, that the US should distance itself from Israel; and outside the US will propel forward the view that the US is an unreliable partner, an ineffective partner, and a weak bully, in other words, that one should distance himself from the US.
The very first of these key 3W conclusions was confirmed over the weekend by US vice president Vance. Speaking on The Joe Rogan Experience, Vance said that people within the Israeli government have been trying to shift the US away from its efforts to negotiate with Iran, writes the BBC. “I definitely think you have seen this very discreet, extremely well-funded campaign to try to derail the negotiation and try to derail the deal,” he said, adding there is “exact evidence” that some Israeli leaders “hate the deal”. Vance added, “What bothers me is actually when Americans allow, meaning American leadership allows, that influence to affect their judgement and to affect what they are advocating for”.
As a consequence, over the past few days the US has continued its attacks on Iran, seeking to degrade Iran’s ability to restrict the traffic of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, writes The Associated Press. Iranian state media reported that US airstrikes had hit an electricity and desalination plant in Hormozgan and damaged tunnels and bridges, disrupting a main highway toward Bandar Abbas, the site of Iran’s main port near the narrowest part of the strait.
Iran retaliated with attacks against Jordan and Kuwait in particular. In Jordan, Iranian ballistic missiles successfully maneuvered through American air defenses, exploding on impact, killing at least 2 US soldiers, writes the BBC. In Kuwait, Iran struck a vital oil facility, and power and desalination plants, writes Bloomberg. The Iranian attacks also targeted Kuwait Army barracks, injuring a number of personnel.
Furthermore, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday issued a statement accusing the US of violating the MOU and pledging a strong response by Iran and its proxies if the fighting continues to escalate, writes Axios. “The Great Satan’s repeated violations of the memorandum of understanding signed between the presidents of Iran and the United States once again proved to everyone how worthless and unreliable the signature of the U.S. president is,” Khamenei wrote on his Telegram channel. He added that “bullying, hegemonic ambitions, and savagery are inseparable elements of the American way and doctrine.” Khamenei stressed that the U.S. is “seeking to ignite war” and pledged it will suffer “even heavier costs and greater disgrace.” He added that Iran and “the Axis of resistance have unforgettable lessons in store for it.” 3W notes this makes quite clear that Iran is not in a frame of mind that makes Iranian surrender a reasonable expectation. It should be expected to counter whatever the US throws at it.
Iran is not in a frame of mind that makes Iranian surrender a reasonable expectation. It should be expected to counter whatever the US throws at it
As to what the next step of the US likely is, the Trump administration notified Israel it is sending dozens more refueling planes to the country ahead of a potential expansion of military operations against Iran, writes Axios. In the 3W view, this means the War on Iran remains on a escalatory trajectory.
As to what could be next, Axios writes the US has been attacking critical infrastructure around Iran’s port city next to the Strait of Hormuz, Bandar Abbas. Over the weekend, the US bombed at least seven bridges around the city, leaving it isolated from the remainder Iran. Anadolu Ajensi writes the US also attacked 116 telecommunications towers in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, disrupting landline, mobile phone and internet services; as well as a desalination plant in the province, leaving large numbers of people along Iran’s coastal border with the Strait without water. This leaves us at 3W with the impression that the US is preparing a ground invasion. It is using airpower to isolate a particular area of the country, that is of critical importance to the Strait of Hormuz.
In preparing for all possible options, Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route, writes Reuters. The Houthi’s have apparently completed preparations to attack shipping by deploying missiles and drones near Bab el Mandeb strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, in Yemen’s highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden and was awaiting the order to begin. 3W notes, firstly, that this probably explains the flare up in tensions between the Houth’s and Saudi Arabia last week. Secondly, we note that if indeed a land invasion of Iran is the US plan, this will almost certainly result in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb being closed by Iran. This risks hugely exacerbating the global energy crisis. Oil traders are getting worried, notes The Financial Times. “We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” said one trader. “All of that’s now gone.”
if indeed a land invasion of Iran is the US plan, this will almost certainly result in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb being closed by Iran. This risks hugely exacerbating the global energy crisis
Meanwhile, in Lebanon the Israelis have begun betraying the “Peace Deal” it signed with the Lebanese government already before it is implemented. The National writes a virtual meeting between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations scheduled to discuss the first pilot zones in south Lebanon has been postponed on the Israelis request. “It was delayed to finalise the technical preparations … but, to base this in reality, the Israelis are stalling,” a security source said.
The only way out of the current Middle Eastern crisis is an inclusive security arrangement, notes The New York Times. Essentially, a deal between the states surrounding the Gulf that enables all to benefit not only from their hydrocarbon resources, but also the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has indicated willingness to move in this direction. But at 3W we note that at every turn, Israel makes clear that continued war is the only thing it will accept…