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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
Following the meeting between US president Trump and Israeli prime minister Netanyahu in Washington DC last Tuesday, our 3W analysis concluded that most likely the US – Israel Alliance was going to escalate its War on Iran.
The current status quo is a complete embarrassment of the US, as the military operations in 2025 and 2026 achieved none of their stated aims (regime change, end to nuclear and missile programs, end to independent Iranian foreign policy including relationships with Hezbollah and the Houthi’s), but did cause Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
In this situation, it doesn’t take much to convince Trump to “flee forward”, and that is clearly what Netanyahu set out to do on Tuesday. Because, as 3W documented extensively over the past year, the Israeli strategic objective is to keep the US military fighting against anyone whom Israel deems an adversary on the Greater Middle East.
And, we said, the is probably driving an effort to bring the Arabian Gulf countries into the conflict in a more active manner, in particular Saudi Arabia, but also others. We speculated that the attack on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure that originated from Iraq might not have been an Iranian operation, just as the attack on LNG tankers in the Egyptian port of Damietta could have been part of the effort to escalate by the US – Israel Alliance, or an element of it (Israel…) – while we recognized they could also fit into Iran’s current strategy to push the US out of the greater Middle East region.
Since then…
As to the Damietta case, Israeli media, such as The Media Line and The Jerusalem Post, pushed the narrative that Iran was behind it. And, that it showed that Egypt cannot sit on the fence in the War on Iran, and should get actively involved on the side of the US – Israel Alliance. Both Iran and the Houthi’s have however officially denied involvement in the event, writes Ash Sharq Al Awsat. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the drone attack had no connection to Iran, and he accused the US of driving insecurity across the region. The Houthis said on their website that it was not responsible. In a post to X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday warned against what he described as Israeli “false-flag operations” saying Egypt’s security is of “utmost importance” to Tehran, writes Anadolu Ajensi.
On Friday, US president Trump convened his cabinet at Camp David to discuss an escalation in the War on Iran, writes CBS News. With journalists still in the room, Trump said: “We’ll be hitting them very hard. At some point, they’re going to say, ‘We just can’t take it anymore.'” The following closed-door meeting discussed plans for the US and Israel to launch one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran over the weekend, CBS News added. Shortly after, the US state department urged Americans across the Middle East to be alert and ready to leave “should there be escalation” in the region, writes the BBC.
3W would note that the Alliance has performed this play many times before already. Threatening a “devastating attack”, in the hope this will strike fear in the hearts of Iran’s leadership, and thereby make Iran agree to all of the US and Israel’s demands. And, we add, in all previous instances things did not play out this way. In this instance as well Iran appeared not in the least intimidated. A senior Iranian official said Tehran had prepared a “comprehensive response” to the attacks the US and Israel were planning against the country’s energy infrastructure, writes CBS News separately.
the Alliance has performed this play many times before already. Threatening a “devastating attack”, in the hope this will strike fear in the hearts of Iran’s leadership, and thereby make Iran agree to all of the US and Israel’s demands. And, we add, in all previous instances things did not play out this way
The New York Times, meanwhile, analysed Iran’s preparations, including its alignment and coordination with Hezbollah and the Houthi’s, which is says was designed to “make the war as costly as possible for President Trump”. It concludes Iran has achieved many of its objectives in this regard. The National adds that one outcome is close coordination and support between the Houthi’s from Yemen, and the Iran-allied militias in Iraq. The Houthi’s are training the Iraqi militias in the development and use of sophisticated drones and rockets, The National says.
According to The New York Times, the US allies in the Arabian Gulf were not convinced escalation could change the battlefield reality. To America’s allies the war seems headed for a US strategic defeat, NYT says, as Washington is losing credibility both militarily and diplomatically and become seen more and more as an unpredictable instrument of global disorder.
Perhaps this explains why on Saturday Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) called US president Trump to express major concerns regarding the US – Israel Alliance escalation plan. Effectively MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes, fearing Iranian retaliations targeting Arabian Gulf energy infrastructure, writes Axios. The call came after Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told mediators, including representatives from Saudi Arabia, that “Any hostile action by the US or Israel — or participation or cooperation by regional countries in such actions — would be met with a decisive and proportionate response from Iran’s powerful armed forces”.
Hours later US president Trump then announced that he would hold off on ordering new strikes, because the US and Iran had gotten close to a ceasefire deal which, Trump said, “would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”, writes The Associated Press.
How to make sense of this all?
One possible explanation is that the US realized it cannot escalate in a manner that would force a defeat on Iran. In this regard, the US’s top general in Europe privately, general Alexus Grynkewich, warned the Pentagon this week that he lacks sufficient naval forces to continue protecting Israel, writes The Washington Post. Grynkewich, the head of US European Command, sent written notification to senior Pentagon officials saying that without another Navy destroyer he will be forced to choose defense of the United States “homeland” over that of Israel.
But another possible explanation is that the US – Israel Alliance is creating the narrative that it is backing down to give negotiations a chance as a form of deception – something it has by now done on numerous occasions, including in the run up to its attacks on Iran in 2025 and 2026. This, 3W notes, makes it all the more unlikely a deception plan will succeed – who believes anything the US says these days? So we do not expect Iran to be any less prepared, if and when the Alliance attacks again, just because of the latest official announcements from Washington DC.
Most likely, therefore, at least in the 3W view, the US – Israel Alliance is trying to do both, i.e. buy a little extra time for another attack. US president Trump already posted to social media that said he agreed to cancel the attack “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”, writes Bloomberg. “Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE.” This might even lead to an MOU 2.0, but if it does, its role will be similar as the MOU 1.0, regarding which we at 3W said, “The US Hoists White Flag….in Deception!”.
The way we at 3W see it, therefore, is that the War on Iran will remain in the “slow burning phase”. Israel does not want to accept defeat. The US cannot (yet) accept defeat. And the only thing Iran is considering is the defeat of the US – Israel Alliance! In this situation, Israel will continue to push the US to escalate, and US policymakers will continue to seek escalation through “new and innovative kinetic means”, ignoring the hard power realities: in the age of drones and missiles, no military force on the planet can force open the Strait of Hormuz; Iran is capable of withstanding conventional US military attacks; the ability of the US military to attack Iran is dwindling by the hour, as shortages of ammunitions and other military supplies increase with every bomb dropped and every rocket launched.