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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In our previous analyses last week, we explained why at 3W we believed the latest round of fighting between the US – Israel Alliance and Iran was a dead-end for the US. In the 40 Day War the US could not achieve a decisive military defeat of Iran, so a repeat of the same actions cannot lead to a different outcome. What happened instead was that during the latest round of fighting, Iran showed it has learned from earlier experiences, and used its superior drone and missile technologies to push the US military out of the Gulf region, and out of its “second ring” bases in Jordan and Syria, severely degrading the US ability to attack Iran.
We also said this left the US – Israel Alliance with no option but to escalate in a dramatic fashion, and we speculated a ground operation via troops from the Arabian Gulf countries might be a possibility, especially since the US suddenly gave Saudi Arabia everything it asked for in the negotiations around a US-supported, Saudi Arabian nuclear program.
Since then, it has become known that the US not only caved to Saudi on the nuclear subject. It also gave the Saudi’s a $15 billion loan. On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund signed an agreement in this regard with the US Export-Import Bank, writes The National. The agreement “provides a framework to enable long-term financing” for PIF to acquire US goods and services, in areas such as advanced technology, space and aviation, infrastructure, future mobility, water and minerals.
What happened next can be understood as support for the above mentioned 3W thesis.
While the US and Saudi signaled that close collaboration in the economic realm would continue, the Saudi’s also signaled that close collaboration in the military realm would continue. When Iranian passenger jets attempted to land in Yemen, Saudi Arabia undertook military action in an attempt to stop them – a development 3W covered previously.
This has since spiraled out of control, it seems.
The Houthi’s have responded significantly in the direction of Saudi Arabia. Not only blocking the Bab el Mandab for Saudi vessels (except if they are shipping crude oil to China…), but also striking Saudi energy infrastructure. The refinery in Jazan in southern Saudi Arabia, as well as the East – West pipeline transporting Saudi crude oil to the export facility in the Red Sea at Yanbu were targeted, writes The Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry said it shot down drones aimed at petroleum targets, some in its eastern province and others in the capital Riyadh, writes The Times of Israel (ToI). ToI adds that satellite imagery circling on social media appears to show damage caused to Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in the country’s east.
In our 3W view, the fact that Saudi Arabia has been attacked from both Yemen and Iraq, in a coordinated manner, indicates there is a coordinating entity behind it. This appears to be punishment for Saudi Arabia by an entity which has close relations with both the Houthi’s and groups in Iraq – Iran. And probably in response to something significant Saudi Arabia has done against Iranian interests, such as confirming its alignment with the US in the midst of the current war, and possibly even agreeing significant military support for the US in the war – such as providing ground troops for a land invasion of Iran. In addition to punishment, this would also serve as a warning to Saudi Arabia to not enable or support US attempts to escalate dramatically in the direction of Iran, by highlighting the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia to Iranian asymmetric responses. We recognise this is speculative analysis, but events over the past two weeks do point in this direction.
Support for the 3W thesis that the US – Israel Alliance is looking for dramatic escalation against Iran also came from the Black Sea, as Ukraine attacked and destroyed an Iranian vessel, the “Anna”, as it was anchored about 5km (3 miles) from the mouth of the Volga River, writes the BBC. Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said the vessel had been carrying components for drones and missiles from Iran to Russia, not civilian cargo. In the 3W view, the fact that the Ukrainian official provided international media with information about this operation, which officially brings Ukraine into the US – Israel Alliance into the War on Iran (Ukraine was already an unofficial part of the war through its military support for the Arabian Gulf countries), is the Ukrainian ambassador to Israel, is noteworthy. Speaking to Israel’s N12, the ambassador further insisted that Ukraine and Israel were confronting the same “axis of evil” on different fronts, adds the BBC. What this means, in the 3W view, is that Israel had a hand in this “vertical escalation” of the war on Iran via the Ukrainian route. This is noteworthy because as we 3W noted about two weeks ago, Israel was also the driving force behind this latest round of attacks on Iran. After all, US president Trump elected to (again) escalate the War on Iran at that time in response to Israeli “intelligence” which said that Iran had devised a plan to assassinate him.
This shines a different light on the meeting between Trump and Israeli prime minister Netanyahu that is scheduled for today (Tuesday). The meeting is taking place at the moment US military advisers appear to have succeeded in convincing Trump that the US cannot escalate the war on Iran further. intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East, writes The New York Times. Instead of fighting, Trump is now calling for negotiations with Iran again, writes The New York Times separately. Axios is helping Trump make the case for this sudden U-turn, claiming that Iran is on the verge of economic collapse and that its negotiators are “begging” the US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for money. (Believe that at your own peril…)
Sidestepping for now the question whether the US has the leverage to negotiate it way to achievement of its stated objectives (it doesn’t…), the above indicates that inside US elite circles, some people share the 3W view that the US cannot win the War on Iran by military means. It also indicates that inside the same circles there are people who are nevertheless pushing the US to fight, to escalate, to double down, regardless. These are the circles closely aligned with Israel. The NYT in its mentioned article quotes Michael Makovsky, the president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. Makovsky said he hoped Mr. Trump chose a return to military action. “Almost four months of diplomacy has gone nowhere,” he said, adding that “the war-diplomacy stop-and-starts make us look fickle and weak.” Makovsky also said that he believed Israeli prime minister Netanyahu will be urging Trump to resume a major military campaign against Iran.
This goes back to our 3W “overarching thesis” regarding US policy when it comes to the Niddle East. As we reminded our audience at the start of the most recent round of US attacks on Iran, in our 3W view Israel presently leads US thinking. US policymakers are either convinced that they will serve US interests by following Israeli advice, or they are simply pressured into accepting this advice and selling it as serving US interests, regardless of actual US interests. Whenever moments arise in which US policy makers appear to be deviating from this Israeli control, events are manufactured and pressure is applied to force them back into the Israeli fold.
Therefore, what we 3W believe is the most likely explanation for events over the past days is the following:
- The US has realized its strategic weakness vis-à-vis Iran is sought a way out
- One way out was to increase Arabian Gulf military support for the War on Iran, for which the US offered economic benefits to Saudi Arabia
- Iran recognized this and has been warning Saudi Arabia not to go down this route, using its influence in Yemen and Iraq
- Israel has sought to prevent the US from going down the de-escalatory ladder, by bringing Ukraine into the war, in an attempt to trigger escalation outside of US control, forcing the US to join the escalatory ladder again
If 3W is correct, there will be a change of tone coming from the White House soon. Not necessarily immediately following the Trump – Netanyahu meeting, since Netanyahu is smart enough to realize this would look bad on him and Trump. While Netanyahu upon his departure for Washington DC made it clear he would be focusing his time with Trump on Iran, Trump in his typical bombastic style said to reporters that Netanyahu would listen to him because Israel “would not survive” without the US, writes The Financial Times. The immediate word out of the White House is therefore likely to be that Trump pressured Netanyahu to agree with the US plans. In reality, however, Netanyahu will use “intelligence” to win Trump back over to Israel’s desired plan for continued conflict in the Middle East.
Lastly, to counter the idea that “Netanyahu is the problem”, 3W notes that during a visit of Washington DC, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said on Iran that he supports the continued bombing of Iranian energy sites. “It’s going to be painful in the short term. It’s the right thing to do on the long term,” he said, according to The National. “This will get rid of the regime, and if you get rid of the regime, you get rid of the nuclear programme, and then you get rid of the ballistic missile programme. It’s a painful solution, but I think it’s the only solution.”