Our analysts at the Geopolity have come up with a list of issues they believe will be major events in 2026 and which they will be following.
End of the Global Order, What comes next – Donald Trump has declared the post-WW2 global order dead, arguing the US will no longer fund a system that yields no profit and which China refused to join. The question is what replaces it. In 2026 and beyond, the US is signalling a hegemonic framework built on “peace through strength:” align with Washington or face military coercion. Subordination or confrontation become the only options. This is a return to neoconservative methods — and risks the same disasters.
New Nuclear Arms Race – The last treaty limiting US and Russian long-range nuclear arsenals expires in February 2026. Negotiating a replacement for New START is unlikely in time. Following Donald Trump’s announcement in November 2025 that America should resume nuclear testing, a new nuclear free-for-all is looming. China is rapidly expanding its arsenal, and America’s allies and adversaries alike are reconsidering nuclear options. From 2026 onwards, middle-tier states may pursue nuclear weapons to defend themselves in a new strategic era, dramatically elevating global risk.
Military Competition in Space will Intensify in 2026 – American generals once spoke in euphemisms about the possibility of fighting a war in space, preferring to talk about space “dominance” rather than the grim prospect of shattering satellites in orbit. Now they speak openly about the need to launch weapons from, within and towards space in any future conflict with Russia or China. The US plans to launch interceptors and weapons in space to deal with missiles that traverse space. The US also has plans to place laser based weapons in space. China has been launching satellites at a rapid rate and made visits to the moon. Russia is developing a space-based nuclear weapon capable of destroying large numbers of satellites in low-Earth orbit in one go. Space in 2026 and beyond is now officially an arena of great power competition.
Hemispheric AI – AI continues to accelerate, and in 2026 we are likely to see the emergence of hemisphere-based AI ecosystems. The US is building a “national AI infrastructure” by integrating its semiconductor firms (NVIDIA, AMD) with software players (OpenAI) and its cloud and hardware hubs (Microsoft’s data centres). Washington intends to deploy this AI ecosystem largely within its own orbit, while China builds its own stack within its sphere. Rather than competing directly for customers, the two will compete for technological superiority. Whichever national AI infrastructure outperforms the other will grant the hemisphere it anchors a holistic strategic advantage.
AI uptake by Corporate World Remains Low – Despite its marvel, businesses have been slow to adopt AI into their processes. For the moment data centres and ChatGPT are all the rage. But surveys all point to the fact that adoption is slow. According to America’s Census Bureau just over 10% of businesses with more than 250 employees say they have embedded AI into their production processes. A survey by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released in July 2025 found that 95% of businesses’ AI pilots failed to generate a return at all. The hype and the hopes around AI have been like nothing the world has seen before, and the true nature of its impact is still unclear. In 2026 it remains to be seen will AI bring an economic revival, a financial bust or a social backlash, or some combination of the three.
The Arctic Connects with the Global Economy – For decades the Arctic was the world’s geopolitical outlier — distant from trade, commerce and conflict. That era is ending. With shipping, freight, military manoeuvres and new supply routes traversing the region, 2026 may be the year the Arctic fully connects to the global economy. The prospect of Russian and Chinese vessels travelling through the region with minimal Western interference has alarmed NATO planners. While institutions exist to manage territorial claims over the frozen north, the political contest is only just beginning, and 2026 may mark the moment the Arctic becomes the newest theatre of global struggle.
Gen Z Protests – In 2025, protests led by Generation Z erupted worldwide — in Bangladesh, Serbia, Argentina, Kenya, Nepal, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru, Tanzania and Morocco. These movements shared common traits: overwhelmingly young participants; decentralised, leaderless structures; and heavy use of digital tools. Their grievances centred on widening inequality, economic precarity, corruption and state intrusion into personal lives. What makes these protests distinctive — and worth watching in 2026 — is whether a generation that has been failed by its leaders can translate demonstrations into meaningful political and social change.
Has Trump’s Tariff Strategy Run its Course? – In 2025, Trump’s economic programme rested on aggressive tariffs to reset global trade. Trump has not even come close to achieving this. On the broader economy, Trump promised to revive manufacturing, protect American jobs and stop outsourcing to China. Behind the theatrics, the economic results are mixed. Manufacturing jobs grew in limited sectors, but not at the promised scale. Costs — higher consumer prices, supply disruptions, retaliatory tariffs — remain severe. Trump promised 90 trade deals in 90 days; by late 2025 he secured only four finalised agreements, including with the EU. In 2026, he will need a new strategy — but tariffs are all he has. Without an alternative method to restructure the global economy or confront China, history suggests escalation may end in conflict.
US Mid-terms – America first vs Israel first – The November 2026 mid-term elections typically spell losses for the president’s party. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested. But these mid-terms may become a referendum on “America First” versus “Israel First.” The pro-Israel lobby has long wielded influence and money to sustain America’s blank cheque to Israel, but two years of televised carnage in Gaza has shifted US public opinion. New York’s first Muslim mayor built his campaign in opposition to Israeli policy. Candidates have returned donations to AIPAC, whose money is increasingly toxic. As MAGA fractures over Israel’s role in US foreign policy, 2026 may reveal that being pro-Israel has become an electoral liability rather than an asset.
The Friend Trump Can’t Escape – Donald Trump has survived an assassination attempt, impeachment, prison threats and scandals that would have ended any other political career. Yet he cannot escape allegations surrounding convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump promised the MAGA base he would release the files, then reversed course — prompting revolt — before passing the Epstein Files Transparency Act, forcing the FBI and DOJ to disclose unclassified materials. The December 2025 release of some 20,000 estate records saw Trump’s name appear repeatedly. In 2026, further revelations may emerge — and this unresolved issue remains one threat Trump cannot simply deflect.
A Divided America Turns 250 – 2026 is the year-long commemoration of the semiquincentennial of the US. The celebration comes as the country fractures over everything from what is a woman to foreign policy. Two national commissions are planning rival commemorations. Congress created “America250” in 2016, with bipartisan leadership and the Obamas and Bushes as honorary co-chairs. Trump countered by establishing “Task Force 250,” chaired by himself and staffed entirely with his appointees. The past has become a partisan battleground in America with wildly diverging accounts of America’s past, present and future, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in irreconcilably different terms.
Is the US going to war of Venezuela – The drums of war are beating once again — but this time, not in the Middle East, but in the Caribbean. In October 2025, President Donald Trump deployed America’s largest aircraft carrier off the coast of Venezuela, under the guise of a drug interdiction operation. The alleged culprits are Venezuelan “narco-terrorists” led by President Nicolás Maduro. With sanctions tightening and domestic dissent within the Venezuelan government mounting, Trump has everything in place for war. Maduro has offered talks, oil and access to the US, but the Trump administration continues to pile on the pressure. Trump does have a history of making deals and considering he wouldn’t want to get the US into another quagmire or repeat the cycle that once turned Iraq into America’s longest mistake. 2026 could be the year the US goes to war again.
Can the American Empire Last? – From the moment Donald Trump re-entered the White House in 2025, he made clear that alliances and global commitments are subordinate to American profit. His foreign policy is transactional: he will engage with any government, at the right price, and demands resources in return. This approach delivered mineral agreements around the world in 2025, but it is unsustainable as a strategy for maintaining US hegemony. If Washington is transactional, other states will be too. If this remains America’s model, 2026 may be the year the US empire visibly begins to strain.
MAGA rupture – Trump’s support base is fracturing over Israel, war, immigration and Jeffery Epstein. This base has been a reliable electorate for Trump on two occasions, but just one a year into his second term the fractures are only getting larger. Trumps challenge is he has opposing supporters in his camp, from pro-Israel to anti-Israel supporters. In 2026 Trump will face the prospect of having to deliver for his donors verses fulfilling the wishes of his supporter base who want to see the opposite of what he’s doing.
Can Trump Make Russia Kneel? – Trump made major promises of ending the Ukraine war in 24 hours, but a year on this has been a major failure. He failed as Russia refuses to play ball as it has the upper hand in Ukraine and sees Ukraine as an existential issue. Trump’s problem is he’s revealed his hand, he is prepared to force Ukraine to give up land and cut arms transfers to please Russia and get it on side. But Russia has still not come to any agreement. In 2026 Trump has his work cut out to use Ukraine to get Putin on side.
End of US soft power – The US spent decades building its soft power. The American dream , Hollywood, free trade, freedom of expression were all values many in the world wanted and looked up to the US for having. But Trump has slaughtered these sacred cows and embraced transactionalism, nationalism and short-termism. The US is now down to its hard power, its soft power has been buried. In 2026 the US only has its hard power to bend others into submission.
Europe’s Impossible position – Europe in 2026 faces a convergence of challenges. It seeks to increase defence spending, retain US favour, boost growth and address deficits — even as austerity fuels hard-right populism. It also wants to champion free trade and green technology. It cannot do all of this simultaneously. Most EU states lack the finance, industrial capacity or public consent. NATO’s Mark Rutte has argued for deep cuts to welfare, education and healthcare to prepare for war. In 2026, Europe’s leaders will need to make the strategic choice of what side they want to be on and whether they are prepared to make the sacrifices that are needed.
Will MAGA Expand Abroad – A wave of movements across Europe now model themselves on America’s MAGA populism. 2026 will reveal whether MAGA-style nationalists are poised to take power in major European economies. In Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK leads polling; local elections will test whether this translates into votes — and how likely a Prime Minister Farage becomes during the next general election. In France, another government collapse appears likely, which could prompt parliamentary elections and propel Jordan Bardella into office as prime minister from the populist right. In Germany, the question is whether the political “firewall” against Alternative für Deutschland can endure.
Europe to Ready for 2030 War – The European Commission has told EU member states they have five years to prepare for war. The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 signals Brussels’ growing role in military affairs, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s ambiguous commitment to European security. In 2026, the EU must find financing for defence industries. This is Europe’s core dilemma: meaningful military expansion will require cuts to welfare, bitterly unpopular after a decade of austerity and a cost-of-living crisis. Europe faces contradictory choices it cannot easily reconcile.
Will the EU Survive in 2026? – The EU has been through a torrid period for the last two decades. With the first member state leaving the union in 2021 and with opposition to the union growing in most member states as political parties gain in national polls with their anti-EU positions. The future of the EU looks bleak. In 2026 Bulgaria will adopt the euro as its currency, in place of the Bulgarian lev, and become the 21st member state of the eurozone, after several delays. The Euro was meant to challenge the dollar’s dominance when it was launched back in 1999, but today it remains a regional currency, overwhelmingly used in Europe. The EUs justification and credibility has waned as the years have gone by as many in Europe see the EU as the problem rather than the solution.
Will the German Leader Survive? – Just six months after taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is struggling to fulfill pledges to revive Europe’s largest economy and fend off the far right, with only a fifth of Germans wanting to see him run for office again. Merz, who is now 70, took over from his unpopular predecessor Olaf Scholz in May 2025 vowing to boost growth, reduce irregular immigration and build up Europe’s largest army in the face of security concerns about Russia. His popularity hovers at 25%, far below that of his predecessors. Growth stagnates and coalition debates over migration worsen. German business elites express dissatisfaction. With elections not due until 2028, Merz has time to recover, but critics say he must act soon to avoid the fate of Scholz, whose fractious, Social Democrat-led coalition collapsed in acrimony.
Will Macron Still be President in 2026? – After eight years in office, Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure amid France’s political crisis. A fragmented parliament, and personal rivalry among those hoping to succeed Macron, in the last 12 months France has gone through three different prime ministers, with the third of them—Sébastien Lecornu—reappointed to try again. France is drowning in debt and cannot pass a budget. Macron’s horizon is shrinking: his remaining objective is to survive until April 2027’s presidential election. If he endures 2026, it will be through inertia rather than strength.
UK’s Future in Doubt – In 2026, Wales and Scotland will hold national elections, further straining the British union. The United Kingdom is a union between Scotland, Ireland, Wales and Northern Ireland, with devolved governments. Calls for independence have intensified since Brexit. Scotland’s SNP is likely to retain control of Holyrood due to the unpopularity of the Labour government, extending its rule from 2007 to at least 2031 — a powerful claim for a new referendum. In Wales, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party aims to oust Labour for the first time in the history of devolution. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill: the group that led an armed rebellion against London, already serves as First Minister. By late 2026, pro-separation parties may govern all three devolved nations.
Power is shifting from West to East – Whilst the West has been the epicentre of the world for over 500 years, power is now moving to the East and Europe needs to decide which side it will be on. For decades Europe sided with the US, who now has put them on notice. If Europe abandons the US and sides with China, that would be the beginning of a new order where Europe plays a central role and keeps her relevant. In 2026, this will likely be unpalatable to many but may remain Europe’s only choice.
Does Europe have Solutions to the Continent’s Problems? – Economics, demographics, debt and education and infrastructure seem to be an endless challenge that European leaders seem to constantly fail in fixing. Europe’s failure in this endeavour has led to anti-EU sentiment to grow and the rise of the Far Right. In 2026 Europe’s centre and mainstream parties need to solve the continent’s problems, otherwise the masses will turn even further to the Far right.
Europe needs to decide its future – Europe is currently in the middle of the world’s great power battle. On one side is the sitting great power the US, who Europe has a long history with as an ally. Then there is the rising power, China, who is writing about the future. Europe needs to decide which power is likely to win this battle and which power will go into decline. This is the strategic choice the continent now faces.
China’s Opportunity – With the US abandoning its own global order and adopting bullying tactics, 2026 provides China a chance to craft its narrative. The US blocks Chinese tech, yet China pushes into next-generation systems. Washington imposes tariffs; Beijing has deep reserves and is the top trade partner for over 130 states. Trump slapped tariffs on Africa; China builds infrastructure and ports. Trump insults India; Xi courts it. American unpredictability is enabling China’s soft power. 2026 may be the year Beijing is seen as a reliable partner where the US is not.
Can China win the Trade war? – China’s strategy against the US trade war has been reactionary and in small pieces based on the US attack. As China did not start the trade war China does not want to escalate the battle, but China needs to see this battle as part of the broader great power battle taking place and this raises the question in 2026: how China can win the battle and does it have the tools to do so before the US expands and deepens the battle.
Will China invade Taiwan 2026? – It’s extremely unlikely China will do so, but this places a major question mark over China’s claim that it’s the sole and legitimate ruler over all of China. Taiwan is now the Israel of the Far East and an outpost for the US. Until China does not put an end to this, its claims of being a globe power will continue. Despite China’s economic rise and its military ascent it’s failed to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people, who are now largely anti-Chinese. China has now run out options with Taiwan and an invasion seems like the last remaining option and the most risky.
Israel’s credibility Hits Rock Bottom – Israel is over seven decades old, yet its future remains uncertain. Despite being attacked on October 7th, it is Israel that stands accused globally of genocide, starvation and mass destruction. The narrative of self-defence collapsed against the images of Gaza’s devastation. What Israeli propagandists have been trying to tell the world has fallen on deaf ears as it’s just not what the world was seeing. Many around the world can see the large discrepancy between what they are hearing and seeing. Former supporters have abandoned it: US presidential candidate Kamala Harris blamed her defeat on backing Israel; conservative voices such as Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens have distanced themselves. Even the UN, which mid-wifed Israel’s creation, has turned against it. Despite expanded territory and weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel faces an existential crisis of its own making in 2026.
Restructuring the Middle Easts Architecture – The US seeks to reshape Middle Eastern security architecture to align with its competition with China. This required the US to force Iran back to its national borders and to disarm the armed groups in the region. After October 7th, Israel pursued these groups under a security pretext, with US backing and weapons. But public opinion has turned sharply against Israel and its destruction of Gaza. Governments may quietly support Washington, but the wider Muslim world opposes Israel’s expansion. In 2026, the US faces rising regional anger, and its credibility is already at a historic low.
What Now for the Palestinians – Dispossessed in 1948 and pushed into shrinking territory ever since, Palestinians pursued diplomacy, international law, protest movements and armed struggle — only to face mass violence. The last two years saw famine, bombardment and torture. Despite this, neither Israel nor its Western allies have imposed a permanent settlement. Palestinian visibility is now global, while Israel’s legitimacy has never been weaker. In 2026, the question remains: can this diplomatic moment translate into tangible gains for Palestinians?
Will Darfur be Partitioned? – South Sudan’s separation in 2011 was orchestrated by the US, yet Sudan only became more unstable. Western Sudan rebelled against Khartoum despite numerous integration schemes. Today, Darfur is held by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia-turned-paramilitary that seized territory from the central government. In 2026, the RSF will likely push to legitimise its rule and entrench a breakaway Darfur, paving the way for partition — echoing the South Sudan precedent.
India to Become World’s 4th Largest Economy – India will replace Japan to become the world’s 4th largest economy. In just a few years India has surpassed both the UK and France and its future prospects look impressive. But the GDP numbers reveal very little about the state of India and in fact the country falls short on almost every other measure. India may be seen as a rising nation but it has no say on global issues and Trump in his second term has come down hard on India. India’s response was revealing in that it did not act like the 4th largest economy in its dealing with the US. In 2026 India either challenges the status quo and pushes its national interests in global institutions and demands to be at the decision making table. Or India is used by other nations in its plans and agenda’s.
Will Russia Win in 2026? – In February 2026 the Ukraine war will reach its 4th anniversary. On 10th June 2026 the war will have been longer than WW1. That conflict was supposed to have been over in a few weeks, but fighting became bogged down and the high command squandered men’s lives in one doomed assault after another. In 1918 the allies used new tactics to break the German lines. Ukraine is today completely dependent on western support and whilst the US has effectively given the country notice that it’s out, Europe continues to make promises that it’s never going to be able to deliver on. Ukraine is bleeding soldiers and struggling to hold its lines, Russia on the other hand has thrown soldiers at the war and continues to supply its troops. In 2026 and beyond the spectre that’s haunting Europe is the spectre of direct conflict with Russia. Cyber-attacks and incidents of sabotage are increasing. Russian drones are flying over Poland, Germany and Denmark, causing shutdowns of civilian airports. Baltic countries are practising mass evacuations in case Russia invades. In 2026 it remains to be seen if Russia can make the move that breaks the back of Ukraine.
How does the Ukraine War End? – What is Russia’s ideal outcome in Ukraine that is both achievable and allows Russia to secure its strategic interests. Russia claims it occupies 20% of Ukraine, from the Donbas down to Khersan in the South. Russia does not fully control these areas, but it controls most of the territory. Russia has controlled most of this 20% for over 2 years and has not been able to expand or acquire more territory. In 2026 it remains to be seen if this is the best Russia can achieve and if this gives it the buffer it so desperately needs.
Between the Periphery and Beyond – With the war in Ukraine close to its 4-year anniversary, it’s taking up significant resources and the longer the war goes on Russia will be forced to determine which issues to prioritise. Unless Russia can quickly achieve a suitable outcome in Ukraine, the longer the war goes on the more acute the resources needed will drain the war effort impacting Russia’s global position.
Where’s the Eastern Bloc? – For nearly two decades Russia along with China have been promoting an alternative bloc to the world’s established, western dominated blocs. But in 2026 a lot of this remains aspirational and real tangible outcomes that impact the world remain to be seen. Unless this changes in 2026, Russia will be forced, like China, to rely upon its own power rather than utilise the advantage of an alliance structure.
Bangladesh Elections – Ever since the long-term leader Sheikh Hasina was overthrown, Bangladesh has spent much time in political limbo. After months of delay, the interim government finally revealed a package of reforms in October 2025, with elections due to take place in early 2026, but doubts linger over its implementation and legality. But whatever the outcome of the elections, the new government faces formidable challenges. The once-booming garment sector has been hit hard by American tariffs. Unemployment remains a big problem, especially among the young. It remains to be seen if Bangladesh’s revolution can bear fruit.
Syria’s new Leader Needs to Start Delivering – Ahmed al-Sharaa emerged as Syria’s new ruler with a weak hand and the daunting task of rebuilding the country. Almost immediately, Israel launched a brutal bombing campaign that destroyed Syria’s heavy weaponry and military platforms. A UN report highlighted that Syria will require over $250 billion in reconstruction investment and decades of work to recover. Syria’s industry, infrastructure and economy was devastated after 13 years of civil war. As al-Sharaa reached his first anniversary in December 2025 the outlook appeared bleak. He remains popular for now, largely because many Syrians are simply relieved the previous regime has fallen. But in 2026, unless he improves the economy, develops the country, and raises Syria’s prospects, opposition to him and his government will only grow.
Will the Iranian regime collapse in 2026? – In November 2025 the Iranian president in speech said “If rationing doesn’t work, we may have to evacuate Tehran.” Iran has been facing an unprecedented drought, which has been getting worse for the last 8 years. The Iranian regime has been facing numerous issues from economic, global sanctions, war and an energy industry that’s crumbling, opposition has been growing for some time with protests now a regular occurrence in Iran’s main cities. The clerical regime has run the country into the ground after four decades of rule and opposition to them is now widespread. Iran is at war with Israel, its proxies are in retreat and now its domestic issues are engulfing them to the point the Iranian president is saying the nation’s capital may need to be evacuated as the regime cannot supply water. 2026 will likely be a crunch year for the clerical regime.
