Despite Trump’s Posturing, the US is in a Middle East Quagmire

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

Before we delve into the latest developments regarding the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, today at 3W we want to cover the latest developments regarding Gaza.

Last Thursday, US president Trump went on social media to announce that Hamas had agreed to fully disarm, in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, writes CNN. The “Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza,” Trump said. As that is completed, “Israeli forces will withdraw, and the International Stabilization Force will work with a new Palestinian police force to take responsibility for Gaza,” he added. On Friday, senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad then confirmed to CNN that the group had reached an agreement to disarm, if Israel ceases fire, stops all targeted killings in Gaza, withdraws its troops to the so-called “Yellow Line”, allows for a surge of humanitarian aid consistent with the October ceasefire agreement, and a Stabilization Force is deployed that protects not only Israel but also the Palestinians. Hamas also said that Israel was to move first – especially since it has occupied a much greater part of Gaza, moving further inside the territory beyond the Yellow Line agreed in October – something which Netanyahu has proudly boasted about, 3W notes.

The Israeli government threw up the first roadblock to the deal via a written statement released on Friday, in which it said the Israeli military would not withdraw from its “current” lines in Gaza without “genuine” disarmament by Hamas, writes The New York Times. On Saturday its actions spoke louder than any words could. Israel bombed Gaza again, killing at least two people and damaging warehouses for medical supplies, writes The New York Times. The outpatient clinic of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in central Gaza was also damaged.

On Sunday Israeli airstrikes then hit Gaza for a second straight day, killing at least 18 Palestinians, writes Reuters. Despite the fact that since the ceasefire of October 2025 Israel has continued to attack Gaza on a daily basis, the death toll of the Sunday attack was markedly higher than during most days since then. Strikes on Deir al-Balah killed at least four people, Palestinian health officials said, ​and a separate attack wounded five people and set some tents ablaze in Mawasi, near Khan Younis. A couple and their 9-year-old son were killed in a strike on a house in Mawasi. Another couple was killed with their child in a strike on an apartment in Gaza City, where two more people died in a strike on a tent near the office of the Egyptian representative mission. Later on Sunday, another two ​people were killed in the city’s eastern Zeitoun neighbourhood. One person was killed near Jabalia in northern Gaza. In an attack on Gaza City, Israeli airstrike on a car killed ‌at least three ⁠Palestinians near Saraya Square. In the 3W view this was done purposely; to communicate a clear message to the US government that Israel would not go along with the new plan.

The New York Times notes that Trump’s latest backing down of a threat to escalate is seen by Iran as a sign of US weakness, not as a sign of strength

Doron Spielman, spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, told reporters on Sunday that Israel had formally communicated with the US government that it has “serious security concerns” regarding the proposed disarmament deal with Hamas, writes The Associated Press. He also said the Israeli military would not withdraw from Gaza — where it controls more than 60% of the territory — before Hamas disarms. US officials, who briefed reporters on the disarmament agreement last week, said that Israel had been consulted at every step of the negotiations and was not being asked to do anything more than what it had committed to as part of the ceasefire and hostage release agreement signed last October.

Nikolay Mladenov, the Board of Peace official overseeing Gaza’s postwar transition then on Monday met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the new disarmament deal, writes The Associated Press. Mladenov and his senior adviser Aryeh Lightstone reportedly pressed Netanyahu to halt Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip. 3W notes that Lightstone is a Jewish American, rabbi, ardent Zionist, one of the key architects of the Abraham Accords, and close confidant of Netanyahu, as The Times of Israel wrote already a few years ago. In other words, the Board of Peace does not travel to Tel Aviv to negotiate with Netanyahu, it travels there to align with him.

The whole affair makes blatantly obvious that negotiating with the US – Israel Alliance is absolutely, utterly pointless. Either the Alliance will lie and cheat, pretend to be a united front to get the opposing party to give into the Alliance demands, but once this is achieved, it will pretend to be a disunited alliance, with Israel breaking the agreement almost instantly, to give the US “plausible deniability”. Or Israel will simply force its will on the US, and this means continued war and destruction, because as 3W previously wrote, “The current Israeli strategy aims to occupy and annex the territories immediately surrounding it (Gaza, West Bank, Southern Lebanon, Golan Heights), formally subject the Arab states to Israel regional hegemony via the Abraham Accords, and weaken through war its ‘second ring’ neighbours Iran and Turkey to prevent them from ever threatening Israel’s regional hegemonic ambitions.”

The current Israeli strategy aims to occupy and annex the territories immediately surrounding it (Gaza, West Bank, Southern Lebanon, Golan Heights), formally subject the Arab states to Israel regional hegemony via the Abraham Accords, and weaken through war its ‘second ring’ neighbours Iran and Turkey to prevent them from ever threatening Israel’s regional hegemonic ambitions

The turning to the War on Iran.

The Associated Press has counted seven previous instances where US president Trump threatened an escalation in attack on Iran, only to call off all attacks shortly thereafter because a “breakthrough in negotiations” had been achieved. The events over the weekend, previously discussed by 3W, represent the eight such instance. This gives an indication of how reliable Trump’s current claims are.

On Monday US president Trump reiterated that the US had begun talks with Iran, which would give the US everything its – an open Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear program. However, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was not negotiating with the US and was focused on talks with Oman over how to administer shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, writes The Financial Times.

The National has analysed both claims and concludes that most likely indirect talks are underway, in which Iran talks to Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and others, but not the US directly.

The facts on the ground make clear that contrary to Trump’s posturing, in these indirect talks the US is not operating from a position of strength. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially come to a standstill again, writes Bloomberg.

Iran is also very unlikely to offer compromises on its positions, as documented in the MOU. The New York Times notes that Trump’s latest backing down of a threat to escalate is seen by Iran as a sign of US weakness, not as a sign of strength. Iranian officials have spotted a pattern in Trump’s attempts to shape negotiations, says Sasan Karimi, a former senior Iranian government official and a professor of Iranian studies at the University of Tehran. “Whenever their messages are exchanged, Mr. Trump starts to pressurize the situation by threatening Iran, so he can try to get further concessions,” he said. “But Iran is not so easily manipulated.” Amir al-Mousawi, a former Iranian diplomat, who said he had met over the weekend with the team surrounding Iran’s head negotiator and speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said “They (Iran) are ready for the war, and they won’t back down”. Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. Said, “The entire Iranian strategy in this period has been aimed at making the United States understand that if there is another round of escalation, the scope and scale of Iranian response would be so much more devastating for the region and the global economy.”

Meanwhile, the US Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, writes Reuters. The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The US has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources. 3W notes that we are inclined to believe the story, because it is part of a broader narrative that actually makes sense: the US military industrial complex is not prepared to manufacture weapons for a long, drawn out conflict. And the US has essentially been at war since 2022 now, in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran. That said, as we mentioned yesterday, there is the possibility that this narrative is part of a plan to lull Iran into a sense of complacency. But even if this is the case, and US weapons stockpiles in reality remain filled well, at 3W we see no way in which the US could use these to dramatically change battlefield dynamics in the War on Iran.

The result is that Iran has only upped its demands. While Qatar says it has tabled a ceasefire proposal, a senior Iranian official called on the US to “take the first step and change its behavior” by returning to the terms of an agreement the two sides reached in June, writes Bloomberg. Mohsen Rezaee, adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, told state television that “US warships and bases will be in serious danger” if Trump doesn’t lift the blockade of its ports.

A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Iran now wants control over inbound shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and visibility over outbound traffic, with the ability to ​intervene if necessary.

In this situation, Trump keeps threatening, as though he is in a winning position. He is pushing Iran to reach a deal on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Tuesday, or face “devastating air strikes”, writes Bloomberg. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex.”

The 3W assessment of the current situation is, therefore, that despite Trump’s posturing, the US is stuck in a Middle East quagmire. It has no serious cards to play. It does not want to accept defeat yet. But it also does not have a plan, nor the resources, to achieve a victory. Iran, meanwhile has no reason to offer compromises on any of its demands, as it realizes it has winning hand to play. To first and main victim of this situation will be the global economy.