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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
A few days ago, on the anniversary of October 7, at 3W we wrote about what we have learned in the past three years. We forgot to include one important point, which is that over this period, the US – Israel Alliance has proven itself to be treacherous, inconsistent and we would go as far as immoral. The US is now looking much like an “Evil Empire.”
As to Gaza, it has now been a year since the latest Gaza ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza was agreed, but Israel is still launching deadly strikes on the devastated territory, writes The Associated Press. Israeli strikes have killed over 1,400 Palestinians since the ceasefire took effect. In addition, Israel continues to move the Yellow Line border inwards, and now occupies 60 percent of the territory. It also blocks the establishment of a new government for the remaining area of Gaza, despite Hamas dismantling its civilian government in accordance with the terms of the ceasefire agreement. 3W notes the US has done absolutely nothing to oppose this Israeli behaviour. To the contrary, even. Anyone who criticizes the Israeli behaviour is attacked by the US. For example, the US special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, Rabbi Yehuda Kaploun, proudly announced that the US has revoked the visa for over 250,000 people because they criticized Israel. 
As to Ukraine, now that the Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s refining industry together with the War on Iran have left the world desperately short of diesel, US president Trump says he has struck a deal to obtain diesel from Russia, writes The Associated Press. Trump announced on social media that he had agreed with Russian president Putin that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.” Russia will deliver an additional 3 million tons “within a short period of time” after that, he wrote. 3W notes that this comes after for the US has manipulated and pushed its allies, most notably Europe and India, to abandon Russian energy!
All this makes again clear, in our 3W view, that agreements with the US or Israel are not worth the paper they are written on. Recall that the US lived up to none of its commitments under the MOU with Iran. In fact, the very moment Trump signed that agreement he broke it by threatening Iran, saying “if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head”, although article 1 of the MOU states both sides would “refrain from the threat or use of force against each other”!
What this means, unfortunately, is that diplomacy is not possible with the US – Israel Alliance. The nation that wants to be free from the bullying of these countries will need to organize a defense that will make it too painful for the Evil Empire to attack it, either militarily of economically. The nation that fails to do so, should expect to eventually be treated in the way Venezuela has been after its “liberation” – forced to hand over to the us its oil and gold.
Beyond this particular point, fighting in Yemen is escalating further, writes Reuters. This week, Saudi Arabia organized a major operation to retake control over the Bab Al Mandab from AnsarAllah. Riyadh claims the attack was successful, but Reuters notes that AnsarAllah remains in control of the Red Sea coastal city of Mocha. Both sides are now fighting it out in the hills overlooking the town. In the 3W view, this battle is likely to be decisive, in a very important war. We explained earlier how dangerous this war is for the House of Saud, and why it is taking a massive risk with its latest offensive, considering how its similar previous offensives ended and how another defeat could affect MBS’s control over Saudi’s ruling elites.
AnsarAllah has an important additional card to play, notes The Financial Times, as Saudi Arabia is preparing to host two important, international conferences. There is the country’s flagship Future Investment Initiative conference, also known as “Davos in the Desert” as well as World Petroleum Council’s annual energy conference. AnsarAllah has been using ballistic missiles to attack Riyadh airport, killing three on Thursday, and this is creating major concerns among western politicians and business leaders scheduled to attend the event. In this way, AnsarAllah has the ability to undermine Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic transformation plan, which aims to attract an influx of foreign investment and tourists.
At 3W we previously speculated that the increase in violence across the Horn of Africa could be linked to the Battle for Yemen. The Guardian writes that the Eritrean army has now moved across the border into Ethiopia. Ther invasion comes as Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other armed groups in Ethiopia have stepped up fighting in Tigray and the neighbouring regions Amhara and Afar. The TPLF and Ethiopia’s government fought a brutal civil war from 2020 to 2022 in which between 300,000 and 800,000 civilians died. Eritrea intervened on the side of Ethiopia in that conflict. This time, however, Ethiopia’s military attacked the Eritrean forces that crossed into its territory.
Middle East Eye writes that while Ethiopia and Eritrea are now on the brink of all out war, the network of states that would oppose an Ethiopian victory in the conflict – Egypt, Sudan and Somalia – all met in the Egyptian city of El Alamein last Sunday, to discuss preventing an Ethiopian advance towards the Red Sea. In other words, the Horn of Africa is set to become another major regional conflict, 3W notes. And we add that behind all these entities is a foreign entity directing actions. For example, the relationship between Egypt and the US is well known. The US also put in place Somalia’s government, after fighting a war with the Union of Islamic Courts which had succeeded in bringing Somalia’s civil war to and end. Sudan, meanwhile, is suffering a civil war at present because Saudi Arabia supports one faction, named “Sudanese Armed Forces”, while the United Arab Emirates supports another, named the “Rapid Support Forces” – and neither Saudi Arabia not the UAE are independent actors on the geopolitical stage. So while it is difficult at this stage to predict how the conflicts on both coasts of the Red Sea will play out, one thing is almost certain: an escalation in fighting and a deepening of human suffering.
The lastly, the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran. Last week 3W challenged the assertion by the US that it has succeeded in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It seems we were correct as Reuters writes that under sustained Iranian attacks, traffic through the Strait has slowed to the lowest point in two months’ time. Iran reasserted its effective control in other words, and Bloomberg writes that it has significantly more cards up to play if and when the US decides to escalate this naval battle. Tehran has so far relied on mines, drones and conventional missiles in the battle, while it possesses an inventory of dedicated land-to-ship missiles, developed in collaboration with Russia and China, that it can still deploy. If and when Iran decides to deploy this inventory, the US fleet imposing the naval blockade on Iran we at 3W suspect will likely find itself a target. In this escalatory step we expect Iran will not immediately aim to sink US vessels, but to let them know they can be sunk, easily, in order to force the US navy to pull back and thereby end the blockade.