Report: Strategic Estimate 2024

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Strategic Estimate 2024 is an annual report that looks at the global balance of power and the major events that have taken place during the year and the key events for the following year.

On the 7th of October 2023, Hamas and a number of other groups carried out their most daring operation. Within hours they captured hostages, reached deep into Southern Israel and undermined Israel’s security image and seemingly invincible intelligence apparatus. The Hamas assault and subsequent Israeli ground assault thrust the Palestinian issue to the headlines. The geopolitical subject for this edition of Strategic Estimate 2023 is the issue of Palestine and we assess the decades old struggle, its position in the Middle East, the different interests of the regional nations and the position of the international powers.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 kick started the latest war in Europe and dominated 2022. What was expected to be a short war on the edge of Europe has turned into a protracted conflict, with the outcome remaining uncertain. The war in Ukraine dominated 2023 with the US leading a coalition of liberal nations on one side and Russia on the other side looking to carve out a victory. For the US, Russia’s invasion presented an opportunity to engulf the country in a quagmire but nearly two years on things haven’t turned out exactly as the US planned. In Strategic Estimate 2023 we assess how the Ukraine war is going for the US as it fast approaches its two-year anniversary in February 2024. 2024 is election year in the US with the incumbent, President Joe Biden one of the most unpopular presidents in recent US history. Biden took over after Donald Trump’s term created tensions with US allies and much of the world. President Biden had his work cut out for him and in Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess Biden’s performance and where the US currently stands in the world. The US has launched a wide-ranging battle with China from a trade war to military aggression. In Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess how the tech war is going as the US attempts to stifle Chinese tech development. US debt continues to make headlines as it grows out of control and as Congress places more restrictions and conditions to increase the debt ceiling. With challenges against the dollar increasing, we assess what the debt situation is and if the US is at the risk of a debt default.

Russia is in the battle of its life as it tries to carve out a victory in Ukraine. The initial disaster when Russia invaded and fell into major problems has given way to Russia adapting and holding its lines. In August 2023 Russia refused to agree to the extension of the Grain deal that permitted Ukrainian grain to get to international markets. In Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess how the war is progressing for Russia and why Russia abandoned the internationally agreed Grain deal. Wagner was a key pillar of Russia’s attempt to project an image of a global power, but in June 2023 the Wagner leader Yevgeny Progozin carried out an attempted coup as tensions grew between him and Russia’s military leaders. We assess what took place and its impact on Russia’s war effort. A key aspect of Russia’s war effort was to project an image of Russia not being isolated and having allies. It was in this context Russia held its Africa summit in August 2023 in order to show she has the support of the Global south. In Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess the influence Russia has over Africa and if the continent can provide the support Russia is looking for.

For China, it is increasingly on the receiving end of US aggression and sanctions. Whilst the US is utilising an array of strategies to contain China, what is China’s strategy to push back? How is China dealing with America’s containment strategy? We assess this in Strategic Estimate 2024. China for long utilised an economic model that brought high rate of growth, but the collapse of multiple property companies, including the latest in 2023 shows its economic model has run its course and the CCP is struggling to shift to a new economic model. We assess China’s prospects and the challenges she faces in shifting to a new economic model.

Europe’s dilemmas have carried into 2023 as the war in Ukraine turned into a protracted battle. Europe is now in the midst of its second winter of war and the impact of sanctions on Russia are now being felt. We assess the impact of the Ukraine war on Europe as the war fast approaches its second anniversary. With the US leading the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, questions are being asked about Europe’s independence in the face of superior US power. In Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess the question, is Europe fast becoming a vassal of the US?

The global economy has been dominated by multiple summits in 2023 which shows there is a East –West divide. The BRICS nations expanded their membership whilst the G20 announced the launch of a new economic corridor that will link India to the Middle East and Europe. In Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess the viability of BRICS and why both the West and the East are trying to win the Global South.  Since its release in late 2022, of artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, ChatGPT has taken the world by storm with its ability to provide in-depth answers to a variety of questions and to hold meaningful conversations. The seeming leaps and bounds that ChatGPT represents in the field of AI has refuelled age-old fears about the impact of new technologies on the job market. In Strategic Estimate 2024 we assess its impact on the global economy.