|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
As we at 3W noted last week, about a week after the US said it would pause military operations against Iran, and instead focus on bringing Tehran to its knees through economic sanctions, the US initiated another phase of military escalation in the Persian Gulf. In our 3W view, this flip-flopping between tactical plans signals desperation born out of failure. So let’s analyse if perhaps “this time things are different.”
Similar to the start of the Iran War, when the US targeted a girls school killing over 150 people, according to Amnesty International, the new phase of US military operations was “announced” with an attack on a civilian target. Around 9:30 pm on Tuesday, the US attacked a wedding in the southern Iranian city of Kuhestak, killing least five wedding guests, including a 6-year-old boy, and injuring at least 67 other people, writes The New York Times. US Central Command spokesman captain Tim Hawkins said in response the event, “The US military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC.” But the circumstances lead 3W to another conclusion. With this being the second case of mass killing of civilians, again at the moment the US initiates a phase of military attacks, we are left with the impression these attacks are targeting killings designed to strike fear in the hearts of the Iranian people. War crimes by intent, not only by outcomes.
The on Friday, US president Trump told reporters that he would have the so-called Pickaxe Mountain in Iran, in Farsi known as Kuh-e Kolang, attacked very soon, writes The National. Pickaxe Mountain is a heavily fortified underground site near Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility. The area is believed to contain deeply buried tunnel complexes.
Then on Saturday the US military attacked and struck three Iranian crude oil tankers, writes The National. The US attacks “permanently disabled” the M/T Downy and the M/T Stark 1, and “completely destroyed” the M/T Kylo in the Gulf of Oman, US CENTCOM said in a news release, adds Axios.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday said it attacked US military vessels and an American unmanned surface vessel following the US strikes on the Iranian oil tankers, writes The National. The IRGC said it had fired several ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer, claiming both were damaged and forced to leave the “engagement area”.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf also said on Sunday that the US should understand that the rules of the game have changed “before it is too late”, writes Reuters. “From now on, any attack against Iran’s interests and security will receive a faster, heavier and more painful response,” he said in a speech.
Iran also gave a first indication as to how it will “see and raise” the hand played by the US military. The new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, on Sunday said Tehran plans to announce an “exclusion zone” outside the Strait of Hormuz aimed at vessels it believes are attempting to transit the waterway, writes The Associated Press. Rezai also made clear that diplomacy is even less likely to succeed now, after the US abused the process to trick Iran. “We had trusted our friends in Pakistan, Qatar or Oman, thinking that since they had stepped in as mediators, one of a mediator’s responsibilities is that if one side violates the agreement, they should stop them,” Rezaei said. In our view this means Iran now fully understands that talking with the US – Israel Alliance, directly or indirectly, is pointless.
“We had trusted our friends in Pakistan, Qatar or Oman, thinking that since they had stepped in as mediators, one of a mediator’s responsibilities is that if one side violates the agreement, they should stop them.”
In the midst of all this, the US is preparing a plan to “contain Iran” after the current war ends, while bringing Israel and the Arabian Gulf countries closer together, writes Axios. 3W notes this has been the US plan for years already. As such, we see it as another example of the US desperately trying to return to the world that used to be – before China became a peer competitor; before Russia showed it could not be defeated by sanctions; and before Iran showed how to effectively resist the “US imperial army” on a shoe-string budget. This US mindset will accelerate its decline, in our 3W view. Every nation needs to strategize based on the realities, crafting a vision as to the position it wants to take in the world that is developing under the influence of “structural forces”. Empires collapse under overreach when they cling to the past and try to push down these structural forces.
The obliviousness to reality of US policymakers was on full display on Friday, when US treasury secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that once the US had defeated Iran, oil prices would rapidly come down to $40 per barrel, dragging interest rates on government bonds down with them, and all would be fine again, writes Bloomberg. “We’re going to get on the other side of this Iran conflict, and I expect that oil will come down,” Bessent said. “We’re going to be very much oversupplied in the oil market after this. We can see $50, $40 crude maybe, just because there’s so much coming online”. He added, “If you go and look, the interest rates — this is the highest correlation they’ve ever had to the oil price,” Bessent said. “The Iran conflict will end, interest rates and the spike in headline inflation will come down.”