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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
First, 3W looks at the much discussed trip by CIA director Ratcliff to Moscow. Ratcliff flew on a massive US military cargo plane, from Andrews Air Force Base near Washington which landed at Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport after a stop in Riga, the capital of Latvia. He then drove in an diplomatic motorcade to the Kremlin for meetings. The whole spectacle was, of course, captured by bystanders on camera and shared extensively on social media. From there, it was covered by the media, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, CBS News, The Financial Times and Politico. While social media has speculated extensively about the trip, “official” reporting portrayed it as a “surprise trip” and “secret meeting”, supposedly to warn Russia against launching a military attack on the Baltic states or NATO targets in Europe, and to request Russian support for the US’s economic blockade on Iran. Ratcliffe held talks with Russian intelligence officials during his visit, according to Russian sources, but not with President Vladimir Putin or any other Russian political figures.
In the 3W view, if the US wanted to have a secret meeting with Russia, it could easily have had one. Just pick up the phone. If it wanted a secret meeting in person, it could have sent someone inconspicuous, and make travel arrangements that do not stand out like a sore thumb. The whole arrangement therefore leaves us with the impression this trip was designed to attract public attention, not to avoid it.
The whole arrangement therefore leaves us with the impression this trip was designed to attract public attention, not to avoid it
As to what was discussed, one can only speculate, but Ukraine would obviously be on the agenda. Bloomberg writes, for example, that Russia is preparing to escalate in the Ukraine War, while BBC writes that Russia has threatened to attack facilities inside NATO countries that are used to supply weapons and ammunitions used by Ukraine to attack Russia. Iran will likely have been another talking point, now that the US wants all countries to end their economic relations with Tehran. However, it should be assumed as quite clear to Russia that the meeting between Trump and Putin in Anchorage in 2025 was a complete waste of time, and that Iran’s negotiations with the US were equally pointless – both the negotiations before the US launched its wars on Iran and those that have taken place since. Consequently, at 3W we are left wondering what a visit by a US official could possibly achieve in Russia. We cannot imagine that Russia would be swayed by US offers of trade and better relations, or intimidated by US threats – Russia will undoubtedly have noticed that the US – Israel Alliance does not abide by “deals”, “agreements” or even “treaties”.
All together, therefore, 3W is left with the impression we are dealing with a US effort to “communicate strength”, while it finds itself stuck in a disastrous situation.
3W is left with the impression we are dealing with a US effort to “communicate strength”, while it finds itself stuck in a disastrous situation
Turning to the subject of Iran, Axios writes that US secretary of state Rubio has been telling his counterparts from around the world that the US does not intend to restart military action against Iran “at least until the midterms”, because the US has already succeeded in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and can therefore now focus on economically starving Iran. At 3W we acknowledge this is a great story indeed. But we note that at the same time, Bloomberg writes that US allies are privately warning that the Strait of Hormuz is still likely mined. The US is likely to have made some progress in removing mines in the Strait, but the demining efforts haven’t cleared all of the estimated 80 to 150 mines laid by Iran. Meanwhile, The New York Times writes that Saudi Arabia cannot export oil via the Straif of Hormuz, nor via the Bab el Mandab, and is therefore exporting via the Suez Canal. This means Saudi exports are now constrained by the SUMED pipeline, which apparently can transport some 2 million barrels per day, and it means Asian crude oil customers having to wait at least 2 weeks more for their shipments of Saudi crude.
In other words, 3W notes, the reality on the ground is quite different from what Trump and his administration claims.
In the real situation, which Reuters writes is best describes as an “impasse”, not the fantasy world crafted by US official statements, the best the US can now achieve is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press has analysed how the stated US objectives for the War on Iran have shifted over time, and concludes the Strait reopening now appears to be the main goal of the Trump administration.