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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In our last update we said the US is completely stuck when it comes to Iran, clutching at straws in an attempt to change the situation, and in the process making a fool of itself.
The memorandum of understanding that the US and Iran signed in June in an effort to buy time to negotiate a lasting peace deal — is repeatedly violated as it had been during that 60-day window — has now expired, writes Bloomberg. There are no plans to extend it, as US president Trump insisted on Tuesday that there are no talks ongoing with Iran. “There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump posted on his social media.
In the 3W view, US president Trump then proceeded to ridicule himself and his nation (again), posting an image of a map labelling the Strait of Hormuz as US territory, writes The Hill. When asked about it by reporters, Trump said he liked the idea and claimed the US already controls the waterway. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” he told reporters. “We’re taking out millions of barrels of oil a week,” he said of the Strait of Hormuz. “The oil prices are coming down, and they will continue to come down unless we decide to do something far drastic, more drastic than what we’re doing.”
None of the above assertions are based on fact, 3W notes. Oil prices rose above $90 per barrel again just a few days ago, exactly as a result of the clear and obvious stalemate in the US – Israel Alliance’s War on Iran, as a result of which the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again.
US president Trump also told reporters that he demands Iran “put up the white flag of surrender”, while he threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of his effort to end the war, writes The Guardian. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them,” Trump said. This is the second time he has directed such a threat at the longtime US strategic partner.
Trump’s statement is an example of what Axios calls his “torching of allies”. Trump is growing angrier at allies that stayed out of the War on Iran, it says, and is now punishing them as he struggles to end it. On Sunday, Trump sought to satisfy his quest for infantile vengeance by ordering the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises in South Korea, citing their cost and his “very good relationship” with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Trump noted in his Truth Social announcement that he “recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, ‘No thanks!'”. This is why 3W on Sunday said the US is now, through its acts of desperation, only deepening the hole the finds itself in. Alienating allies is the last thing the US should do in its current moment of weakness. The National also writes that as a result of acts such as these, the War on Iran is leaving US increasingly isolated on world stage. Bloomberg agrees that this greatly undermines US strength.
Trump is growing angrier at allies that stayed out of the War on Iran, and is now punishing them as he struggles to end it
As to Iran, for a while already 3W has expressed the view that Iran has increased in confidence, and as a result is operating on the basis of its own strategy and plans, no longer following the US. We said this was evidenced by the fact that Iran decided to negotiate with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, not with the US. Further evidence came on Monday when a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture. “Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions,” the Iranian official said, adding that Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the US naval blockade.
The Iranian emphasis on “offensive deterrence” against the US comes after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed several IRGC old guard and confidants to key military and security positions last week, writes Al Jazeera. Khamenei said Major General Ahmad Vahidi’s rise to commander-in-chief of the IRGC must represent a mix of “maximum deterrence” with readiness for “powerful offensive operations against the enemy”. The New York Times provides more details. Among the appointments made by Ayatollah Khamenei, Mohsen Rezaei, who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps during the Iran-Iraq war, was named head of the Supreme National Security Council. And Hossein Taeb, a cleric and former intelligence chief, was tapped to run the Basij, a powerful network of paramilitary forces. The overhaul also included a new general staff of the armed forces, a new head of the Revolutionary Guards and a commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces. Most of Ayatollah Khamenei’s appointees are from an older generation of Iranian leaders who were part of the revolution that established the Islamic Republic in 1979 and were commanders in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
Most of Ayatollah Khamenei’s appointees are from an older generation of Iranian leaders who were part of the revolution that established the Islamic Republic in 1979 and were commanders in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s
An opinion piece in Bloomberg argues that this turn to “traditional hardliners” is because Iran needs war to survive. At 3W, we see assertions such as these as propaganda – Iran is being painted as inherently violent, seeking war, even after being attacked twice within recent months by the US – Israel Alliance, three times even if one includes the assassination of Ismail Haniyyeh, and four times if one includes the Mossad organized violent protests that occurred during January of 2026.
We at 3W believe The Wall Street Journal is most likely more accurate in its assessment. The people now appointed to the positions of powers in Iran’s national security institutions had argued that the US – Israel Alliance only tried to deceive Iran via the MOU process, to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road, WSJ writes. Since they were proven correct, they are now being rewarded. These new leaders, WSJ writes, believe the main war has not yet begun. “What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of ‘salami-slicing’ tactics—limited, incremental escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation”, said Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government. The new leaders’ strategy is therefore to ensure the US – Israel Alliance does not have the ability to launch a new war on Iran – hence the concept of “offensive deterrence”.
3W notes that while this strategy makes sense, if comes with the risk of increasing fear among the Arabian Gulf countries, which the US – Israel Alliance can use to push them more actively into the War on Iran. What the region needs to prevent war is a new, inclusive security arrangement, involving the Arabian and Persian Gulf states. Both sides need to realize this, and act accordingly, for that to become a reality. An Iranian offensive deterrence strategy not executed well could result in reducing the chances of such an inclusive security arrangement coming about.
In this regard, it is probably wise for Iran to say it remains open to negotiations, as Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, did on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Because this communicates pragmatism, and a willingness to find a solution. Ideally, 3W adds, Iran would also find a modus operandus for the Strait of Hormuz that is somewhat agreeable to its Arabian Gulf neightbours (although, of course, not entirely as to their wishes). Bt with the US pushing the Arabian Gulf countries to accept nothing short of a return to the pre-war situation, that is unlikely to be achieved.
As a result, the Strait of Hormuz should be expected to remain closed, and tensions between not only Iran and the US – Israel Alliance, but also between Iran and the Arabian Gulf countries, should be expected to remain elevated. In this situation an offensive Iranian military operation, even if targeted against US military facilities, could achieve full degradation of the US ability to wage war against Iran; but it also could instigate just that.