During “Negotiations,” the US–Israel Alliance War on Iran Intensifies

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At 3W we have previously noted that there is a there is a familiar pattern in the behavior of the US – Israel Alliance in the Middle East.

Israel clearly operates on the basis of a “Greater Israel” strategy, under which it uses military force to remove the native populations from the lands it covets, and to create depopulated buffer zones between these lands and its neighbors.

Usually, the US provides support through an “inactive role”, as in Gaza and Lebanon, enabling and supporting Israel via military support from behind the scenes and diplomatic cover. Occasionally, the military component of the support is active, as was the case in Yemen and is the case in Iran. But mostly, despite its involvement, the US tries to maintain a façade of impartiality, spearheading the diplomacy that results from Israel’s military adventures, to ensure that track too progresses in line with the Israeli ambitions.

Under the pattern, whenever the US verbalises a position or an objective that runs counter to Israel’s point of view, first Israel uses its military to create a new problem to complicates the US-led diplomacy; then second “Israeli assets”, both formal as in politicians and diplomats and the secret services, and informal as in donors, media personalities, and even US congressmen, put pressure on US policymakers to revise their positions; and then third those policymakers change their tone and fall in line again with Israel’s point of view.

It’s because of this clearly observable pattern over the past three years that we at 3W are highly skeptical of the current US diplomatic push when it comes to Iran.

The official narrative is that the backdrop to this push is a fall out between Trump and Netanyahu. This narrative was first pushed by Axios, which in and off itself makes it suspicious. Thereafter the US agreed to set of Iranian demands that runs counter to everything the US has been calling for since Israel pushed the US to define Iran as an enemy. The dominant assessment by the analyst community which we at 3W take serious has since been that the US has realized the Israeli interests are not (always) aligned with those of the US, and that consequently the US has chosen to (finally) distance itself from Israel on the issue of Iran.

the US has realized the Israeli interests are not (always) aligned with those of the US, and that consequently the US has chosen to (finally) distance itself from Israel on the issue of Iran

At 3W we respect this perspective, but we do not support it. Referring to the pattern we discussed above, we are of the opinion that in the current case as well, the US and Israel are working hand-in-glove. In the run up to the US – Israel MOU, the US and Israel only pretending to have a disagreement, to give US diplomacy credibility as it works on securing via diplomatic means the aims defined by Israel’s plans for the Middle East, while Israel’s military continues to work on securing these aims via military means. We said regarding the MOU in particular that it is a trap designed to get oil (and other natural resources) flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again, to avoid collapse of the global economy, and thereby buy time for the US – Israel Alliance to plan for a next phase in its War on Iran.

Events since we wrote our analysis we believe support our analysis.

First, we said that the prominence of US vice president Vance in the negotiations with Iran, as opposed to the man whose job this work is, US foreign secretary Marco Rubio, is because Israel wants to isolate the people inside elite US policymaking circles that are not unquestioningly loyal to the Zionist cause. Ahead of travelling to Geneva to negotiate with Iran, US president Trump said to JD Vancre, “You better be careful, JD!”, writes The Hill. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the hawk who pushed for the war at the outset, stood quietly alongside the president. 3W notes that this move means that the one person in Trump’s close circle who argued most fervently against this War on Iran, has now been made the face of it – while Rubio remains in in the shadows, untainted.

Second, after harsh, harsh criticisms levied at him by US Zionist opinion makers and congressmen, as well as in Israeli press, US president Trump did what he has many times before, and so many other US presidents before him. He changed his narrative to re-align it with Israel. Just before the Geneva meeting got underway, Trump said that the US would resume attacks ​on Iran, ​unless the Iranians can ⁠keep their ​Hezbollah allies in ​Lebanon from causing violence, writes Reuters. 3W notes that this perspective, of Hezbollah “causing violence” while Israel is bombarding Lebanon day and night, is quite clearly an Israeli talking point.

To us at 3W it seems Iran understand the games being played by the US – Israel Alliance

As if this was not enough, Trump then proceeded to threaten the Iranian negotiators heading to Geneva. Trump said “You close it [the Strait of Hormuz] and you won’t have a country” and “You won’t even make it back to your fucking country”, writes The Guardian. (The Guardian downplayed the statements, saying they meant Trump intended to “kidnap” the negotiators. Journalists have a curious way of understanding words, we at 3W note. Most people would interpret Trump’s statement as a threat to kill, we would wager…) 3W notes that threats against diplomats participating in negotiations represents a war crime. But it is also a violation of article 1 of the MOU signed by Trump just week earlier.

Trump further said that Iranian president Pezeshkian had better “watch his mouth” and “shape up,” or the US “will take over the rest of the country”, if Iran does not submit to the original US – Israel Alliance demand of dismantling its nuclear program, writes Asia Times.

So much, therefore, for the view that the US and Israel are at odds over Iran.

To us at 3W it seems Iran understand the games being played by the US – Israel Alliance. It has responded firmly, for example by walking out on the US delegation in Geneva in response to the Trump threats mentioned above.

In this context, China is signaling increased structural support for Iran

In addition, through keeping the Strait of Hormuz under its control. BBC writes there has been a significant increase in traffic through the Strait since the signing of the MOU. But, it also notes, a majority of the vessels passing carried Iranian oil or petrochemicals. And, all vessels transiting used the Iranian-approved northern route through Iranian waters, rather than the US-recommended southern route close to the coast of Oman. Nikkei Asia adds that Iran and China appeared prepared to move millions of barrels of Iranian oil once the MOU was signed.

Right now, the situation gradually moving back to where it was before the MOU was signed, in the 3W view, because the US is it making it very clear it has no intention to live up to what it agreed to. US secretary of state Rubio travelled to the Gulf to tell the countries there that the US would not allow Iran to charge any fees for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. “The president’s already said it, that’s not going to happen,” Rubio said, writes The New York Times. 3W notes that the MOU explicitly says there will be no fees for 60 days – which makes it quite clear that the Iranian intent, and US implicit agreement, is to start charging fees thereafter.

Rubio also travelled to Lebanon to discuss with Israel and the Lebanese government the next steps in the plan to defeat Hezbollah there. The idea is for the Israeli army to seize Lebanese territory, and then hand it over to elements of the Lebanese army that have been trained and vetted by the US – Israel Alliance, writes Axios. 3W notes that the MOU explicitly declares an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including specifically in Lebanon. Negotiating a next phase in the war on Hezbollah quite clearly runs counter to this.

In this context, China is signaling increased structural support for Iran. On Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Ghadir Nezamipour, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in New Delhi. “China is willing to continue to provide assistance in its own way and play a constructive role in restoring regional peace and tranquility at an early date,” Wang said after the meeting, writes Nikkei Asia. China’s support appears part of a diplomatic coordinated with Iran. China will soon provide medical and aid supplies to Lebanon, which 3W notes distinguishes it from the US – Israel Alliance which only sends bombs and rockets to Lebanon. And, Wang told Nezamipour that China will promote closer ties between Iran and Persian Gulf countries, which 3W notes distinguishes it from the US – Israel Alliance which calls for a Gulf security architecture excluding Iran.

What this all means, in the 3W view, is that during the “negotiations”, the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran is actually intensifying. As the Alliance is insincere, Iran is preparing for a next wave of attacks by the Alliance, which is leading to China getting more actively involved.