At 10:46pm on 2 January 2026, US President Donald Trump gave the order. His message was brief: “Good luck and godspeed.” Within minutes, 150 US aircraft were en route to Venezuela’s capital, Caracas. By dawn, President Nicolás Maduro had been kidnapped from his fortified compound, blindfolded, and transferred to a US battleship. He now faces trial in New York. Trump’s words may have been few, but the consequences of this single act are seismic. Its ripples are crashing into the very foundations of the international system the United States built after the Second World War. From multiple perspectives, the long-term implications do not look favourable for the US.
Controlling the World’s Oil Supply
The United States has pursued a hostile posture toward Venezuela for decades. American energy firms played a central role in developing the country’s oil industry during the 1970s, only for it to be nationalised following a military coup in 1975. Relations deteriorated further after Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999, as he adopted an openly anti-imperialist stance. In response, Washington imposed sanctions and later an embargo, triggering a dramatic collapse in Venezuelan oil production.
Running parallel to this was a broader strategic shift in US foreign policy. Successive administrations made clear—through national intelligence estimates, policy papers, and congressional hearings—that China posed the principal long-term challenge to US global dominance. Barack Obama announced that 60% of US aircraft carriers would be redeployed to the Pacific. Trump, in his first term, launched a trade war against China. Joe Biden expanded this into the technological domain. In Trump’s second term, the trade war escalated into a full-scale tariff war, with Washington openly demanding that other nations decouple from China.
Oleg Deripaska, the US-sanctioned Russian oligarch, observed that Washington could keep oil prices near $50 a barrel, giving it decisive leverage against any state attempting to constrain supply. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev was even more explicit, stating that seizing control of Venezuela offered “huge leverage” over the global energy market.
The United States is simultaneously pressuring Iran and Nigeria—two other major oil producers with substantial reserves. With Venezuela under its control, Washington can now influence oil prices by forcing production increases or decreases within its own hemisphere. It can also decide where oil flows—and where it does not. Combined with US dominance over the Arabian Peninsula, this grants Washington effective control over more than 40% of global oil supply.
Washington has established a stranglehold over global oil production—one that gives it the power to shape oil prices in ways that will disproportionately harm China
Given that the United States already possesses vast domestic reserves and does not require this oil for its own consumption, the question becomes unavoidable: why is Washington building an oil empire?
China is the world’s largest oil consumer after the United States, but unlike America, it must import roughly 75% of its oil. By conquering Venezuela, Washington has established a stranglehold over global oil production—one that gives it the power to shape oil prices in ways that will disproportionately harm China.
Does the Chinese Dragon Have Any Teeth?
China now finds itself in the struggle of its life, yet it continues to adopt cautious, non-confrontational positions toward the United States. Washington treats Taiwan as its Israel of the Far East, but beyond rhetoric, Beijing has so far refrained from forcibly reincorporating the island into the mainland.
In Ukraine, the United States backed Kyiv from the outset of Russia’s invasion, only to later place Ukraine on the negotiating table as part of a broader strategic bargain. Central to this approach is Washington’s desire to dilute Sino-Russian relations in order to confront China in isolation.
From Beijing’s perspective, the Ukraine war should be understood as an indirect strike against China. Yet its response has been ambivalent. Xi Jinping initially criticised Russia’s invasion—an operation Putin did not even inform Beijing about in advance. Since then, China has quietly supplied limited military support while continuing to purchase heavily discounted Russian energy.
When the United States launched its tariff war in 2025, China responded by restricting exports of rare earth elements. Yet Beijing continues to negotiate despite increasingly unreasonable US demands. American pressure has forced major technology firms to exclude China from supply chains, but China continues to trade with the United States regardless.
The invasion of Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president were not aimed at Caracas. They were aimed at Beijing. China now faces a strategic choice: either accept this encirclement or begin confronting the United States across multiple regions using the capabilities it possesses.
The invasion of Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president were not aimed at Caracas. They were aimed at Beijing
Where Is the Eastern Axis?
For years, Russia and China promoted the idea of an emerging Russia-China-Iran-Venezuela axis that would challenge the US-led order. BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SWIFT alternatives, and the digital yuan were all presented as evidence that the Western system was approaching collapse.
Yet this axis failed its first real tests. When Israel and the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025, the response amounted to little more than condemnation. Now, with the president of an “axis” member kidnapped and its oil industry seized, the alliance has been publicly humiliated.
The overthrow of a supposed axis leader now exposes a simple truth: this alliance shouts far louder than it can act
The Ukraine war could have been a decisive demonstration of axis power. A major conflict in Europe might have showcased coordination, military effectiveness, and strategic coherence. Instead, Russia launched a disastrous initial assault, failed to capture Kyiv or decapitate the Ukrainian leadership, and settled into a grinding war of attrition approaching its fourth year. Western support has been insufficient for Ukraine to win, yet Russia and its partners have still failed to secure victory.
The overthrow of a supposed axis leader now exposes a simple truth: this alliance shouts far louder than it can act.
The Final Nail in the Coffin of the Rules-Based Order
The global rules-based order is dead. In Ukraine and Gaza alike, the West applies its principles selectively. Courts are sanctioned, journalists silenced, and laws rewritten in real time to protect allies and punish adversaries. The West’s sacred cows—free speech, justice, and the rule of law—have been hollowed out by those who once claimed moral superiority.
Israel’s war in Gaza and South Africa’s case at the ICJ revealed the extent of this hypocrisy. The US House of Representatives voted to sanction the International Criminal Court after its prosecutor sought arrest warrants for Israeli officials. A group of Republican senators went further, sending a letter to ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan that included threats against his family.
The kidnapping of a foreign head of state and the seizure of a nation’s resources shreds the last pretence of Western values. Washington argued that Russia should be sanctioned and Putin tried at The Hague for invading Ukraine—even though Russia is not a member of those institutions. The United States ignored arrest warrants against Israeli officials, and now its actions in Venezuela make one thing clear: might is right.
By this logic, Russia’s claims over Ukraine are legitimate. So too are China’s claims over Taiwan.
The kidnapping of a foreign head of state and the seizure of a nation’s resources shreds the last pretence of Western values
US Soft Power Is Crumbling
All empires struggle to remain profitable. Expansion brings mounting costs, and over time those costs overwhelm the benefits.
After the Second World War, the United States stood alone as the dominant power. It built a global order that much of the world willingly joined. Even during the Cold War, Washington maintained alliances that sustained its position, emerging victorious in 1991.
Rather than using this moment to shape the 21st century into another American century, the United States squandered its advantage. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan shattered global confidence in US leadership and triggered domestic exhaustion with empire.
The United States would do well to study the fate of the Soviet Union—for it now risks becoming the very thing it once defeated. The US is now the new USSR
For decades, America relied on the American Dream, Hollywood, free trade, and democracy to attract others. The Venezuelan episode shows that this era is over. Washington tried elections, opposition movements, sanctions, and embargoes—all failed. It has now returned to good old fashioned gunboat diplomacy.
The US empire has one remaining offer: obedience enforced by military power. Resist, and your leaders will be kidnapped and your resources seized. The nation that once promised liberty now offers only coercion.
History is littered with empires that chose this path. Every one of them failed. The United States would do well to study the fate of the Soviet Union—for it now risks becoming the very thing it once defeated. The US is now the new USSR.