What We’re Watching – How the US Uses War to Further its Geopolitical Interests

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In this roundup, we take a closer look at how the US uses war to further its geopolitical interests. To prove this, 3W analyses the recent developments in the Thailand – Cambodia conflict.

Furthermore, we look at:

• Israel’s continued, systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure in Gaza, a month since the ceasefire agreement
• The continued threat of war in Lebanon, as the US – Israel Alliance threatens to another invasion of southern Lebanon if the Lebanese do not surrender unconditionally
• The signal by the Houthi’s in Yemen that they will halt their attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea following the ceasefire in Gaza
• The continued US military build-up in the Caribbean
• The continued Russian advance in the key strategic city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine
• Why global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050
• How the EU, after sacrificing energy affordability over Ukraine, is now threatening to sacrifice energy availability holistically
• The US ambition to become self-sufficient when it comes to rare earth minerals; where 3W explains why this will be very, very hard to achieve.

Geopolitics

As to Gaza, Israel has destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in areas of Gaza that have remained under its control since the ceasefire with Hamas started on 10 October, writes The BBC. Entire neighbourhoods controlled by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been levelled in less than a month, apparently through demolitions. The demolitions are an apparent violation of the ceasefire agreement, but a spokesperson for the Israeli military argued to Ther BBC that since Hamas is unlike to abide by the terms of the second phase of the ceasefire deal, Israel is fully in its right not to abide by the terms of the first phase of the ceasefire deal. Independent analysts and academics argue the demolition of civilian infrastructure is (another) war crime. 3W has previously analysed that the ultimate Israel objective is genocide of Gaza, and that the secondary objective, if the first can not be achieved, is to create an uninhabited buffer zone inside Gaza (through which the remainder of Gaza becomes practically uninhabitable for the people of Gaza).

Meanwhile, Israeli soldiers have confessed they were allowed to shoot and kill randomly in Gaza, writes The Guardian. “If you want to shoot without restraint, you can,” Daniel, the commander of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tank unit, says in the documentary “Breaking Ranks: Inside Israel’s War”, due to be broadcast in the UK on ITV on Monday evening. The soldiers who agreed to talk confirmed the IDF’s routine use of human shields and gave details of Israeli troops opening fire unprovoked on civilians racing to reach food handouts at the militarised distribution points set up by the US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

As to Lebanon, the country is on the brink of war, writes Arab News. One the one hand, the US – Israel Alliance is forcing the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. US envoy Tom Barrack has reportedly given Beirut until the end of November to disarm Hezbollah, warning that Israel will launch a military action if nothing changes once this deadline has passed. Israeli tanks are reportedly being deployed on the border, threatening another invasion. At the same time, Israeli forces have breached that ceasefire agreement between it and Hezbollah hundreds of times in near-daily attacks, and continues to occupy southern Lebanon from five permanent basis in the area, writes The National. If anything, this is making it clear to Hezbollah that it should not disarm. “America … is putting pressure on the government to make concessions without any reciprocal commitments or guarantees … and wants to give Israel free rein,” Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said on Tuesday. 3W notes that if the US – Israel Alliance has not kept any of its promises so far, it should be expected to not keep its promises after a Hezbollah disarmament. Effectively, therefore, Hezbollah would commit suicide by disarming now. In our view, Hezbollah made a strategic mistake by signing the “ceasefire proposal”, because the deal was nothing of the sort. It was part of the US – Israel Alliance’s plan to make the Lebanese surrender unconditionally to Israel.

As to Yemen, the Houthis have signalled a halt to their attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea following the ceasefire in Gaza, writes The Financial Times. Writing to the armed wing of Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Qassam Brigades, in an undated letter published online, the Houthis suggested their campaign of attacks had stopped for now.

As to the tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, on Tuesday at least 12 people were killed in a suicide bombing outside court buildings in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, writes The National. Earlier on Monday Pakistani security personnel said they foiled an attempt by militants to take cadets hostage at an army-run college, which was attacked by a car bomber and five other people overnight. The authorities blamed the Pakistani Taliban but the group denied involvement in that attack.

As to Venezuela, the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group has moved into the Latin America region, writes Reuters. US president Trump ordered the deployment of the Ford last month, adding to the eight warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 aircraft already in the Caribbean. The US military has carried out at least 19 strikes so far against what it calls “drug vessels” offshore Venezuela killing at least 76 people. Trump has authorized covert military operations on Venezuelan soil, and an earlier Reuters investigation found the US military is upgrading a long-abandoned former Cold War naval base in the Caribbean, suggesting preparations for sustained operations that could help support possible actions inside Venezuela.

The above update makes this a good moment for 3W to share our fundamental take on the US geostrategy. War plays an important role in it, we believe, in two ways.

Firstly, the US is very willing to militarily engage those entities it sees as opponents. This applies to Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran, hut also Venezuela, and potentially Nigeria.

Secondly, the US seeks to create military conflict for those entities it wishes to engage with, but who need a nudge in this regard. 3W previously explained why, for example, we believe the origin of the current tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan is the US geostrategy. These tensions do not serve the interests of either Pakistan or Afghanistan. But they do create an opportunity for the US to present itself as a “mediator”. This, in turn, enables the US to build relations with key officials in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and demand concessions from both in return for the US support to solve the problem. This, in turn, enable the US to influence the policy direction of Pakistan and Afghanistan to align it with US plans and interests.

This was quite visible over the period following the recent tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. After the US brokered a ceasefire, it then proceeded with strengthening its relations with key officials in the country, in particular in defense and security circles. The US lifted its ban on arms sales to the country, writes Reuters, and the US and Cambodian militaries agreed to restart military exercises, writes The South China Morning Post. Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet also held a telephone conversation with US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director Kash Patel, and committed to “strengthening cooperation between Cambodia’s security institutions and the FBI to combat transnational crimes and enhance security for both nations”. writes Khmer Times. The original reason for the ban on arms sales and the suspension of military and security collaboration was that the US saw Cambodia as moving too close to China, and feared the country had agreed to let China develop the Ream Naval Base for the Chinese navy, which would be China’s first puncture in the “Island Chain” that the US has erected to contain it.

As to Ukraine, thick fog has enabled Russian troops to move further into the key strategic city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, writes The BBC. Russian forces have spent more than a year trying to seize the city. Ukraine’s military says there may now be 300-500 Russians there and President Voloydymyr Zelensky says the situation remains difficult. Meanwhile, army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi says the situation on the front line in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region has “significantly worsened”, with the loss of three settlements.

Energy

Global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, writes Reuters. In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption. The IEA last used the “current policies scenario” for its predictions in 2019 and switched to predictions more in line with a clean energy transition and pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century from 2020. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade and said no more investment in oil and gas was needed.

Meanwhile, another day, another push back by the oil and gas industry against the EU’s policies under its Green New Deal. Two weeks ago the US and Qatar threatened to stop supplying fossil fuels to the EU over its CSDDD regulation. Last week, ExxonMobil CEO added his voice to the debate, saying he is considering pulling out of Europe over the same regulation, as it forces him to abide by EU regulations even in countries outside of the EU. This week, gas producers warn that they could redirect LNG cargoes away from the EU if it goes ahead with its planned methane regulation, writes the Financial Times. The oil and gas industry argues it will impossible to comply with the law because it requires companies to trace where each molecule in a shipment has come from — a significant challenge in countries such as the US, which has thousands of small gasfields combining their output in large pipelines. “We have been complaining about many of these things basically since day one,” said Andreas Guth, secretary-general of Eurogas, which includes BP, Shell and TotalEnergies among its members. Importers “may decide to divert those cargoes to other markets outside of the EU” if changes are not made “immediately”, he said. 3W notes that it is becoming clear that after the EU sacrificed energy affordability over Ukraine (by cutting off from Russian energy), it is now threatening to sacrifice energy availability holistically. The damage the EU’s current policy direction will do to prosperity in the bloc is almost unimaginable.

Other

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says that China’s leverage over the rare earth metals supply chain will last no more than 24 months. Washington is injecting funding into rare earths and critical mineral companies in the hope of catalysing the sector domestically. It has also sought to corral allies including Australia and Japan into rare earths deals. Washington and Canberra in October agreed to invest more than $3bn together in critical mineral projects within the next six months. Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday that the country and the US would jointly study developing rare earth mining in the waters around Minamitori island in the Pacific. But, writes the Financial Times, observers have questioned this, given the extent of China’s grip on the sector, and the complexity and expense of building the mines and processing facilities that will be needed to replace Chinese suppliers. Bringing a new mine to life is lengthy, risky and capital-intensive. Newly discovered deposits are studied for years before a final decision to build a mine, while projects are often slowed by long permitting processes. Raising the money to finance a mine is also challenging, meaning initial timelines frequently slip. 3W adds that is just looking at the mining part of the supply chain. The processing of the rare earths coming from a mine is probably even more difficult, since it is a very dirty process. The end result is that governments will need to push through rare earth mineral mining and processing permits, which in the western world should be expected to be against public opinion and trigger protests and demonstrations, thereby risking political instability. Or, governments will need to force companies in the rare earth mineral mining and processing business to adopt stringent environmental policies and procedures, which will make most projects financially challenged when dealing with Chinese competition. The only way to overcome this obstacle is to ban the imports of Chinese rare earth minerals, which can not be done due to China’s current control over the supply chain, or by massively subsidizing rare earth minerals operations outside of China, which will further challenge government investment in sectors such as education and healthcare, which in the western world should also be expected to be against public opinion and trigger protests and demonstrations.

The BBC writes that the US has overtaken China as the largest foreign investor into Africa due to its rare earth minerals push. But, the numbers remain relatively small, 3W notes. The US invested $7.8bn across Africa in 2023, compared with $4bn by China. The American investment is being led by a government agency called the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). This was set up in 2019 during President Trump’s first term of office, and it is not shy about saying that its mission is to take on Beijing. The DFC says on its website that it was established as a means of “countering China’s presence in strategic regions”.