Where nationalism and ethnocentricism failed, necessity prevailed. With Pan-Arabism a relic of history the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia concluded a mutual defence pact with decidedly non-Arab but Muslim Pakistan. Although details of the pact remain elusive the choice of Pakistan over Egypt, whose NATO style Arab defence force was soundly rejected at the recent Doha summit, underlines the bankruptcy of Arab solidarity and Pan Arabism as a political force.[1]
It remains to be seen whether the pact is worth more than the paper it’s written on as assistance may fail to materialise when the adversary is powerful or interests diverge. The Budapest memorandum being an example where the US, despite its commitment to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, failed to uphold its status as a guarantor state when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.[2]
Details of the pact remain scarce and probably remain yet to be negotiated, as the haste with which the pact was concluded probably precluded lengthy and complex negotiations about specifics. What is clear is that the agreement yet to be made public covers the deployment of nuclear weapons. Asked whether Pakistan would now be obliged to provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella, a senior Saudi official told Reuters: “This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.”[3]
It remains to be seen whether the pact is worth more than the paper it’s written on
From the military perspective the agreement is somewhat one sided. It is expected that in the event of an outbreak of hostilities, Pakistan constituting the only nuclear power in the Islamic world as well as possessing the Islamic world’s largest and most battle hardened army will come to the aid of Saudi Arabia, with the latter lacking the capability to intervene militarily on behalf of its co-signatory. On the other hand, from the economic perspective Saudi Arabia has the ability to open lines of credit and supply oil at discounted or nominal rates to Pakistan in the event of a protracted conflict.
The synergies between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been known and discussed for several decades, Pakistan deficient in hydrocarbons, and capital with enormous human potential meshes comfortably with Saudi Arabia capital and hydrocarbon rich but lacking human resources and agriculture.
With common foes mutual co-operation was always a natural consequence of their existence. For both Pakistan and Saudi, enhanced defence co-operation opens up a myriad of opportunities. Hampered by a lack of funds Pakistan’s defence, although achieving a lot with limited resources, has lagged behind its bigger and richer adversary – India. With Saudi funding stalled projects including project AZM, a program to develop a 5th generation fighter and several projects to indigenously develop a radar and air defence capability can be brought to completion. [4][5]
From the Saudi perspective, although the Kingdom has purchased sophisticated weapon systems from the US, these offer no protection from Israel as Friend and Foe Identification (FoFI) systems will flag Israeli aircraft as friendly, preventing their engagement. Although Saudi Arabia may have a number of capable universities, the lack of a work ethic and a no blame culture prohibits the development of indigenous capabilities.
For both Pakistan and Saudi, enhanced defence co-operation opens up a myriad of opportunities
Pakistan with its abundant human capital may fill this void. Simply put, Saudi Arabia does not have the work force that is capable or willing to weld the turret of a tank or force the case of a shell at 40 degrees celsius.
Pakistan has for decades been an able and willing suitor for Saudi Arabia. The Saudis on the other hand have been courting the US for a defence Pact.[6] They wanted guarantees against all security threats. The US offered a limited defence agreement like the one it maintains with South Korea, where the US would protect against external threats, and any agreement would be contingent upon normalisation with Israel, which after the conduct of the Zionist entity in Gaza has become unpalatable to almost all.
Furthermore, to the surprise of the Gulf monarchies, even the presence of the Middle East’s largest US base does not guarantee protection from Israel. It seems that the US is no longer able to restrain its ally. Most importantly what the US offered was protection from external threats as for protection from regime change that was not part of the deal.
For Saudi Arabia and in fact its fellow GCC nations these recent developments in the Middle East have opened up a host of anxieties. The war in Gaza has robbed all Arab regimes including the Saudi regime of any vestiges of legitimacy. The ascension of Ahmad al-sharaa to the presidency of Syria spells out in no uncertain terms that to the western sponsors of all GCC regimes their own interests are paramount. They may reconcile themselves to mildly Islamicist regimes in the event of popular uprising as long as the nation state paradigm is maintained and their interests secured. For Saudi and Emirati monarchies the hysteria concerning the Muslim Brotherhood is predicated on this threat.
For Saudi Arabia and in fact its fellow GCC nations these recent developments in the Middle East have opened up a host of anxieties
Hence, in the estimation of the Saudi monarchical regime a defence pact with a much less capable Pakistan that includes a defence of the regime against regime change is better than a pact with the more capable US that does not.
Although many have surmised that this a defence pact that is fundamentally against US interests, this is not entirely the case; the conclusion of this defence pact brings some important and strategic advantages to the US. There is no guarantee that congress or the US public at large will support an intervention of the US with the accompanying loss of American lives to save any of the decrepit regimes in the middle east. With this pact the US effectively outsources the security of one set of client regimes to another client regime, reducing the burden to itself allowing a focus on more important theatres of operation. Also, with the relationship between the US and India strained due to diverging interests, a pact between two of its client regimes, pressures India in which Saudi Arabia is a very significant investor to comply with its demands. More importantly it gives the US, constrained by domestic considerations, a convenient and somewhat deniable means to restrain its unruly ally – Israel.
Whatever the strategic or tactical reasons behind this pact, events conspire to further integrate the Islamic world into an indivisible whole.
[1] Exclusive: Egypt’s Nato-style Arab defence force proposal rejected at Doha summit | Middle East Eye
[2] Budapest Memorandum – Wikipedia
[3] Saudi Arabia, nuclear-armed Pakistan sign mutual defence pact | Reuters
[4] Report: Pakistan’s Air Defence Systems – Quwa
[5] Defence Uncut | Why Pakistan’s Project AZM Fighter Failed (and What’s Next) – Quwa
