Why the Latest Gaza Ceasefire Will Not Work

It’s unlikely the ceasefire will hold as Israel has maximalist aims making any long-term resolution as elusive as ever
Adnan Khan4th June 2025

A new proposal for a Gaza ceasefire spearheaded by Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been accepted by Israel just three months since the last ceasefire ended. Hamas confirmed it had received the Witkoff proposal and said it “…is responsibly studying it in a way that serves the interests of our people, provides relief, and achieves a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.” The ceasefire negotiations take place with Gaza facing a man-made famine and as Israel continues to pummel the enclave after 20 months of war.

The new ceasefire deal includes a 60-day initial truce, a “redeployment” of some Israeli occupation forces, and an exchange of captives, including ten living Israelis held in Gaza. It would also require the “immediate” delivery of humanitarian aid, including by the United Nations and the Red Crescent.

These terms however have constantly been amended as the US, who is not an independent mediator in the talks and continues to support the Israeli position. Hamas amended the 13-point proposal, including a guarantee for a permanent ceasefire, a change to the timeline on the release of Israeli captives, and reinserted language that said Hamas would cede power to an independent Palestinian committee. “I received the Hamas response to the United States’ proposal. It is totally unacceptable and only takes us backward,” Witkoff wrote on X. “Hamas should accept the framework proposal we put forward as the basis for proximity talks, which we can begin immediately this coming week.”

the US, who is not an independent mediator in the talks…continues to support the Israeli position.

Blockade

The negotiations have been taking place with Israel imposing a full-scale blockade of Gaza since the original ceasefire collapsed in March 2025 as Israel didn’t want to continue to the second and third stages of the ceasefire agreement. Israel blocked humanitarian aid, energy and supplies and has been carrying out an intense bombing campaign that has seen the destruction of what remains of infrastructure in Gaza and the slaughter of women, children and medical personnel. Israel has even been attacking the few food control centres it recently permitted to receive aid, where it killed 32 starving Palestinians.[1]

Israeli officials have been very open with their agenda for Gaza. Israel’s security cabinet announced a plan to “capture” the whole of the Gaza Strip. The prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said on May 5 the IDF would remain in the territory indefinitely and take over the administration of humanitarian aid. Israel’s far-right has repeatedly advocated for the expulsion of Palestinians and the resettlement of Gaza. Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, confirmed there will be “…no retreat from the territories we have conquered, not even in exchange for hostages”. Smotrich envisioned that a successful Israeli incursion would leave Gaza “totally destroyed”, with the Palestinian population left “totally despairing” and wanting to leave the Strip.

Israel’s objectives are maximalist, it’s forcing Gaza’s population to move to the South of Gaza and plans to occupy and control all movement in the rest of the enclave.

Israeli officials have been very open with their agenda for Gaza. Israel’s security cabinet announced a plan to “capture” the whole of the Gaza Strip.

The Wests Favourite Child 

Israel has been able to do all of this as its allies in the West have done nothing to halt the slaughter that’s been taking place for 20 months. Despite the recent statements criticising Israel, arms exports from Europe and the US have continued. White House officials told Axios that President Trump has been frustrated by the ongoing war in Gaza and upset by images of suffering of Palestinian children, and has told his aides to tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wants him to wrap it up.[2] Trump halting arms exports to Israel is not on the agenda. The West, who have for long supported Israel are pressuring Israel to get the job done and wrap it up as images of starving children and dead bodies are affecting their domestic ratings.  

Despite the recent statements criticising Israel, arms exports from Europe and the US have continued

With the West effectively providing Israel with cover, not surprisingly Israeli officials admit that allowing “minimal” aid into Gaza will ensure Israel has continued support from its “friends” to continue with its goal of “destroying” the Palestinian territory. Netanyahu made similar comments, saying that allowing “minimal” aid into Gaza was about maintaining support from the US. “Our best friends in the world – senators I know as strong supporters of Israel – have warned that they cannot support us if images of mass starvation emerge.”[3]

Whilst Israel wants to end Hamas in Gaza and be responsible for security, this will be unacceptable to the US and the regional Arab states, Türkiye and the broader international community. Indefinite Israeli occupation would be further destabilising at a time when the Trump administration is pursuing a complex strategy for regional stability. There is also the issue of whether the Israeli military, which is already engaged on multiple fronts, could handle the strain.

Whatever happens to Gaza after the war ends Israel will reserve the right to influence how the area is administered. Another possibility is for the US to take over – as President Donald Trump said back in February 2025, when Netanyahu visited the White House. That plan involved rebuilding the entire area and included the relocation of 2.2 million Gazans to other countries. It’s debatable how serious Trump even is with this plan as just a few days after calling for a reverie in Gaza, Trump said it was just a suggestion and he’s open to other ideas in a meeting in his oval office with King Abdullah of Jordan. This indicates that the Arab nations need to step up and take responsibility for security in Gaza. The Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf States have little experience in such a mission and it is unlikely Israel would want Muslim armed forces in Gaza.

The negotiations and ceasefire and eventual resolution to the crisis doesn’t involve the Palestinians who have lost their homes and many family members. The negotiations are all in the context of Israeli security needs, with the Palestinians being told to relocate elsewhere. This is why it’s unlikely the ceasefire will hold and the long-term resolution remains as elusive as ever.

 


 

[1] Israel kills 32 starving Palestinians in latest US aid point ‘massacre’ | Middle East Eye

[2] Trump wants Netanyahu to end Gaza war, White House officials say

[3] ‘We’re Destroying Gaza’: Netanyahu, Smotrich Rush to Soothe Right’s Fears Over Aid Renewal – Israel News – Haaretz.com

 

 

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