Donald Trump’s second presidency promises to reshape both domestic and international landscapes with lasting implications. From internal divisions to shifts in global power, the years ahead are set to test the resilience of institutions and the adaptability of nations. We delve into the key trends likely to define this volatile period.
1. US Polarization and the Threat of Fragmentation
The United States stands on the precipice of profound internal conflict. Partisan divides have grown sharper, with blue state governors expected to entrench progressive policies, including protections for LGBTQ+ rights and WOKE initiatives. This will provoke fierce resistance from Trump’s new administration and red states, exacerbating the cultural and political chasm.
Trump’s consolidation of power through loyalist appointments signals a drift toward dynasty politics and a disregard for institutional checks and balances. His administration’s likely pursuit of vendettas against the “deep state“—particularly figures associated with his prior prosecutions—will erode public trust in federal institutions.
The resulting dysfunction is likely to severely damage the legislature on Capitol Hill and could even push the US towards fragmentation. Scenarios once deemed unthinkable, such as federal disintegration or civil conflict, may enter mainstream discourse, reflecting a nation at odds with itself.
2. Western Legitimacy in Decline
The US’s global reputation continues to falter, undermined by its perceived complicity in Israel’s actions in Gaza. Support for what many view as genocidal policies has shattered America’s moral authority, exposing the hypocrisy of its advocacy for democracy, human rights, and international law.
With its legitimacy in tatters, the US will increasingly rely on coercive tactics to maintain its global influence. The Gaza war has set a chilling precedent: defiance of US directives could lead to devastating consequences for countries, especially the Global South. This shift accelerates the erosion of Western values as a guiding force, leaving smaller nations to seek alternative alignments or bolster their own defences against coercion.
3. A Return to Neocolonialism
The Trump administration’s foreign policy is expected to pivot toward neocolonialism, prioritizing resource control through overt and coercive means. Calls from figures like Erik Prince for US colonization of Africa and Latin America may find resonance in Trump’s rhetoric, if not outright policy.
Even traditional allies face potential fallout. Threats to sanction the UK over an ICC warrant for Netanyahu and punitive tariffs on BRICS nations reveal a foreign policy driven by intimidation rather than partnership. This marks a dramatic departure from the post-Cold War emphasis on multilateralism, signaling a return to zero-sum geopolitics.
The implications are profound. By weaponizing economic and military power to enforce compliance, the US risks alienating both allies and rivals, accelerating global instability and signalling a return to physical occupation of countries.
4. The Resurgence of Mercantilism
Mercantilism, long considered a relic of pre-globalization, is making a dramatic comeback. The Trump administration’s protectionist policies, including trade wars with China and punitive tariffs, exemplify this shift.
The decoupling of the US and Chinese economies will likely accelerate, particularly in strategic sectors like AI, semiconductors, and rare earth materials. This fracturing of economic interdependence signals a broader trend, as Western nations embrace reshoring and nearshoring to safeguard their supply chains.
Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs against BRICS nations underscore a doctrine of economic coercion, aimed at neutralizing competitors and consolidating US dominance. For the global south, this signals a harsher economic environment, with diminished access to Western markets and resources.
The abandonment of free trade in favor of mercantilist policies may reshape global economics, introducing new hierarchies of power and dependence.
5. Democracy in Recession
Democracy, once heralded as the pinnacle of governance, is under siege. The Gaza conflict has exposed its vulnerabilities, showing democracies as prone to internal corruption and external manipulation.
Furthermore, liberal democracies once viewed as a beacon of light are now seen as the most violent actors in the international arena.
Globally, democratic institutions are faltering. The ousting of French Prime Minister Barnier, Romania’s annulled presidential election and political deadlock in South Korea highlight the fragility of democratic systems. Meanwhile, the appeal of authoritarian governance grows, casting doubt on democracy’s future as a global norm.
As this trend deepens, democracy’s recession will likely reshape the international landscape, creating fertile ground for alternative governance models to take root.
6. Sino-American Rivalry Over AI and Space Supremacy
The US-China rivalry is entering uncharted territory, with AI and space emerging as critical domains of competition. Both nations view dominance in these fields as essential to securing global primacy, fueling an arms race that extends beyond traditional military capabilities.
Export controls, sanctions, and technological decoupling are expected to intensify as Washington seeks to stifle Beijing’s advances. Meanwhile, China’s investments in self-reliance, particularly in AI and space infrastructure, will position it as a formidable challenger.
This rivalry is likely to fragment global innovation networks, forcing other nations to align with one of two competing technological blocs. The risks are high: missteps in this high-stakes competition could escalate tensions, with implications for global security and economic stability.
7. A Multipolar World in Flux
The international order is shifting irreversibly toward multipolarity. The EU, long a pillar of Western unity, faces existential threats as the US, UK, and Russia pursue policies that undermine its cohesion. While NATO may endure as a military alliance, the EU’s political and economic fragmentation appears inevitable.
The failure of Arab states to counter Israel’s genocide is likely to have a devastating impact on in the Middle East. The US is likely to advocate the abandonment of Sykes Picot borders in favour of new states as a means of controlling regional dynamics. In Asia, tensions over Taiwan will escalate, with a potential Chinese takeover signalling the end of US primacy in the Pacific.
These developments reflect a world where power is increasingly distributed, challenging the dominance of any single nation or alliance. As multipolarity takes hold, the rules of engagement will evolve, demanding new strategies from global players.
Conclusion: A World in Transformation
The next four years will test the resilience of democracies, the durability of alliances, and the adaptability of nations to a rapidly shifting global order and global challenges like climate change. From the resurgence of mercantilism to the decline of democracy, the Trump presidency will likely catalyse trends that redefine international relations and push the world towards the pre-1945 era. The stakes are high. As nations navigate this turbulent era, the balance between transformation and chaos will determine the trajectory of the global system well beyond 2029.
One comment
Osman Bakhach
8th January 2025 at 8:49 am
A concise Executive summary of expected transformation of the global world order, under Trump 2.0 term.
Yet some points needs further elaboration:
1- In his previous term Trump had ordered the withdrawal of US troops form Syria 3 times, as per James Jeffery; The DEEP STATE outsmarted Trump and did not comply with the orders. Hence the question (as far as foreign policy is concerned): will Trump succeed now where he failed previously? and, an offshoot question: who ultimately decides the US foreign policy: the POTUS at the White House or the behind the scene king makers? in the 2020 election James Jeffery was asked few days before the election: how do you think the US policy in Syria be affected if Biden enters the WH? he answered with full confidence: irrespective of who is in the WH, US policy in Syrian will not change.
2- Concerning the EU: seems the European political class is spineless and in total shamble, not knowing which direction to pursue due to conflicting national currents and aspirations. Ukraine has halted the flow of Russian gas which has a big impact on energy cost in Europe, yet EU is rudderless, while average Joe Smith is suffering..will this translate into further weakening of EU?
3- On China, can China afford an open confrontation with the US over Taiwan? seems to me the Taiwan question is postponed for a latter day, with China getting busier in preparing for the D day, benefiting form the Russian need for active relations with China….But will this also lead to the rise of Japan military, with Japan assuming some burden sharing with the US is East Asia??
4- I noted with interest the comment on the decline of “Western” Democratic institutions, in the light of the on going Gaza Genocide, you seem to imply that the world may be more receptive to a different governing system??