Germany in crisis – Germany was for long the adult in the room, the stable nation that maintained order and created consensus on major issues. But now a perfect storm of crises have all caught up with the industrial nation. Germany has for long been suffering from demographic decline but the decision to abandon Russia and join the US when the Ukraine war began has created a major crisis. The loss of cheap and abundant Russian gas has created major industrial and economic problems. The rise of Chinese motor giants has caused Volkswagan, for the first time in its 86 year history, to close factories and make redundancies. It was not surprising the German rainbow coalition collapsed before its term ended. But with new elections due in 2025 it remains to be seen, whoever forms the government, how they can navigate Germany from this a perfect storm of crises. The underlying issue is the abandonment of cheap Russian gas. Without this underlying issue being addressed its likely blame will turn on immigration which will cause further tensions as Germany’s challenges continue to grow.
Israeli credibility hits rock bottom – Israel has spent billions over the decades on propaganda, lobbying and influence to create a favourable opinion about its settler colonial agenda. Mainstream media has for long been dominated by pro-Zionist voices that silenced any alternatives. But Israeli officials, communication specialists and personalities who came out in force after October 7th for Israel have failed to have any impact on global public opinion that sees Israel as the aggressor rather than the victim. One by one, every argument was exposed from the events of October 7th being discredited to the Israeli military machine targeting hospitals, civilians, places of worship and the massacring of children and women. This one issue has seen Israel’s decades of propaganda work go down the drain. What Israeli propagandists have been telling the world, is not what the world is seeing. Many around the world saw the large discrepancy between what they were hearing and seeing. The fundamental issue for Israel has been the fact that it’s trying to defend the indefensible and it doesn’t help when Israeli officials keep making genocidal calls and then try to deny that was what they meant.
Israel’s Gaza agenda – As Israel expanded its war, Gaza was overshadowed by the events in Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Israel has continued with its genocidal war which has seen large areas turned into apocalyptic scenes. Israel continued to target hospitals, places of worship and infrastructure which has led to the complete altering of the Gaza strip. The continued bombing has forced Hamas to show flexibility, but each time Hamas does this Israel increases its demands.
Hamas believes it is negotiating a ceasefire deal under which Israel eventually pulls out of Gaza. But it appears Israel has no such intention, and is instead negotiating for a complete surrender of Hamas and permanent occupation of Gaza. The Israeli position is an impossible ask. It is impossible for the Palestinians people to accept what effectively is an unconditional surrender. Israel also knows this, and this gives it room to continue its daily bombardment of Gaza, and strangulation of its civilian population, with the objective being, making the people of Gaza “voluntarily” leave Gaza such that the area is converted into a depopulated buffer zone under Israeli military control. This agenda will only lead the region to turn against Israel and this will place pressure on the region’s rulers. It remains to be seen if Israel’s grand plans become the very catalyst that comes out haunt it in 2025.
Will the Ukraine War end in 2025? – Despite Russia’s loss in Syria, in Ukraine Russia has been on top for over 2 years now. Ukraine has been struggling with manpower, military equipment, ordinance and pretty much everything necessary to fight a high intensity war. The message from both Europe and the US has been that Ukraine needs to use the resources provided to alter the battlefield reality and that they are now done providing further resources.
From an optics perspective the West is losing and Russia is winning. Donald Trump has made it clear he wants to bring the war to an end by calling for an immediate ceasefire and doesn’t see the need for the US to support the war effort. With Ukraine having lost 20% of its territory it is unable to negotiate from a position of strength. There is really no need for Russia to even negotiate when it’s winning. Ukraine wants Western security guarantees to prevent future Russian attacks and this will remain the main obstacle for negotiations to begin. Therefore if the war in Ukraine does end in 2025, it will not be to the benefit of Ukraine and it doesn’t deal with the underlying issue of the threat of Russia. Unless the West escalates the war, which they have shown little sign of doing, Ukraine is losing and this makes 2025 the critical year for the war.
Crunch time in Bangladesh – In January 2024 Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League won an unprecedented 3rd consecutive term in office. Her legacy appeared to be cemented. But a dispute over civil service jobs grew into a major revolt and by August 2024 Hasina fled as crowds flocked to her residence. The Awami League was replaced by an interim government led by the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The interim administration indicated that elections could take place by the end of 2025, contingent upon the completion of necessary reforms and the establishment of a consensus among political stakeholders. The interim government which consists of pro-western leaning officials have attempted to address many of the people’s concerns but 2025 will be the crunch year. With elections due at the end of 2025, it remains to be seen if they will take place. But with the economic challenges still not improving it remains to be seen if the people see the interim government as their saviour or as a failure.
Could Myanmar’s Junta fall in 2025? – Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, is facing unprecedented challenges that threaten its hold on power. Since the 2021 coup, the country has been embroiled in a civil war, with various ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces mounting significant resistance. In 2024 the Tatmadaw suffered substantial territorial losses. Notably, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) seized Kanpaiti, a strategic border town and rare earth mining hub, diminishing the military’s control over lucrative resources. The activation of conscription in early 2024 underscores the regime’s desperation to bolster its ranks. The Tatmadaw’s position is increasingly precarious, although it retains control over key urban centers. Myanmar’s military is under severe pressure from both internal and external forces and in 2025 it remains to be seen if the military junta can maintain its grip on power.
Is the Arab Spring about to kick-off in Egypt? – It’s been 14 years since the Arab Spring engulfed Egypt and it’s now been 11 years since Abdel Fattah el-Sisi carried out his coup. Today Egypt is in a worse position than it was on the eve of the Arab Spring. Inflation is in double digits, the national debt is only getting worse and repression by the regime is harsher than it was prior to the Arab Spring. In order to meet IMF conditions the military regime removed subsidies which caused a cost of living crisis and made life even worse for Egyptians. Anti-government sentiment is only increasing and will result in larger and longer-lasting strikes and protests. The military regime will continue to respond with crackdowns on dissent that will likely lead to even more resentment and discontent. With the overthrow of the regime in Syria it remains to be seen if 2025 is the year the Egyptians take to the streets to bring their uprising over a decade ago back on track.
India to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy – When China overtook Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second largest economy, a title Japan had held for almost 40 years, the world came to take China seriously. In 2025 India is set to overtake Japan to become the second-biggest economy in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. India’s population is already bigger than China’s and its economy is likely to grow significantly faster in the next few years. India’s leaders want its GDP to reach $5 trillion by 2028 and its exports to reach $1 trillion by 2030. India is therefore in pole position in 2025 to be at the table with the world’s powers and to be part of global institutions and decision making over global issues. India can even argue should countries like the UK, France and Germany even be at the leadership table. Whether India’s leaders can convert their economic heft into political heft remains to be seen in 2025.
Iran in retreat – Iran successfully created proxies across the Middle East which gave it immense power to shape the political landscape in the region. But in 2024 Iran’s proxies have been decimated as Israel pushed back after the events of October 7. Hamas is now underground and Hezbollah’s leadership has been decimated. Iran and Israel engaged in direct war for the first time with Israel targeting its weapons programme in an attack in October 2024. Iran can see the odds are against it and it failed to halt Israel’s expansion as well as its own retreat. With the fall of the al-assad regime Iran’s power, it spent decades building and nurturing is on the verge of losing all its legs. In 2025 it remains to be seen if Iran can respond, especially as Israel continues to increase noise about Iran’s nuclear programme. With Donald Trump back in power in 2025, Iran’s regional role appears to be taking a big hit.
Tariff man to launch new tariff war – The US is in a full spectrum economic battle with China. Donald Trump in his first term began the economic war and a host of sanctions, tariffs and trade restrictions were placed upon China. The Biden term also saw the widening of tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions placed on a broader set of technologies. Donald Trump even before he moves back into the White House plans to expand the trade war increasing tariffs to over 100%. But eight years since the trade war began China has not stopped being the world’s largest exporter and on the technology front China is ahead in many of the next generation of technologies. The US trade war with China has not stopped China and the American trade deficit with China has not changed much. Whilst the US is extremely loud about its trade war with China, the results of US actions have not altered the trade and economic balance. This means in 2025 and beyond the US will need to take more aggressive action and this has the potential to lead to unintended consequences.
Is global innovation shifting from west to east? – Since the industrial revolution the West has dominated science and technological development and been the flag bearer of innovation. But this is changing as China has now developed so rapidly that in 2025 it will switch places with the US as the overwhelming leader in research and development, something it achieved in just two decades. China now outclasses the US in the quality and quantity of scientific papers.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute defines critical technologies as current or emerging technologies “…that have the potential to enhance or threaten our societies, economies and national security…”, most of which have applications across a broad range of important sectors, including defence, space, energy, the environment, artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, robotics, cyber, computing, advanced materials and key quantum-technology areas. China now leads in terms of research and innovation in 60 out of the 64 critical technologies of the future. China’s dominant position within the global tech-research community is being further cemented with every passing year and is testament in part to Beijing’s long-term planning and unwavering commitment to achieving its goals in this field. History has shown that the nation that leads in technology usually becomes the global power and in 2025 it looks like China will overtake the US in another metric.
China’s economic problems are only growing – China has been trying to change its economic model for over a decade now and has had little success in this endeavour. China for long relied upon exports to drive its economy and after the 2008 global economic crisis relying on western consumption became untenable. But since then China has not succeeded in developing another economic model. China utilised a number of rounds of stimulus measures which created a ballooning property sector and increased China’s national debt by the trillions.
China for the short to medium term will have to go through pain as it has no good options. But its long-term plan of moving up the tech ladder and exporting these, is also facing challenges. Chinese manufactured goods, especially high-tech products are facing tariffs and many nations, especially in Europe and the US are trying to close them out. Due to the country’s demographic situation, it cannot use domestic consumption as an economic model, whilst moving towards high tech exports is also running into problems. As the Trump administration increasingly turns against China, 2025 will test China’s economic resilience.
Will China become the global green superpower in 2025 – In July 2024 China hit its target of having 1,200 gigawatts of installed solar and wind capacity, enough to power hundreds of millions of homes each year, six years early. Around two-thirds of all new solar and wind power projects globally under construction are happening in China.
The scale and pace of the country’s transition away from fossil fuels has smashed international forecasts and exceeded Beijing’s own targets. The unparalleled investments in renewables comes as China desperately searches for new long-term economic growth drivers. Decarbonisation is the key to unlocking China’s long-held ambition of energy independence. Europe was for long the region that had renewable energy as a large share of its energy use but like many other trends power is now shifting from west to east. In 2025 and beyond the competition over renewable energy tech is only heading in one direction.
The death knell of the global rules based order – The global rules based order that the US and the West promoted for decades was already struggling before the events of October 7th 2023, but the actions of the West have now completely exposed that the order is not worth the paper the rules are written on. The US had already undermined the global order with its actions in Iraq and Afghanistan when it openly trampled over it own values by creating a global torture network, abandoned the rule of law as well as international law. The global south looked on in horror.
But with Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and South Africa taking the case to the ICJ, the West is now acting like the mafia against the very order it created and for long promoted. The US House of Representatives voted to pass legislation that will sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) after its prosecutor applied for arrest warrants against Israeli officials. A group of Republican US senators even sent a letter to International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan threatening his family! Whether it is the UN, the ICC or even the ICJ they are now labelled as antisemitic and are being threatened for investigating and carrying out their job of investigating crimes against humanity. The West supported the court when it issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin, but the US has done the most to destroy and undermine the global order than any other person ever could. In 2025 another piece of the western order is crumbling.
Can 2024s new leaders deliver in 2025 – 2024 was the year of democracy when over half the world’s population voted for new governments and leaders. A few leaders despite winning elections were thrown out of office before the year even ended. Across the world populist leaders and right wing leaders have taken power as many have lost confidence in mainstream political parties and politicians, who have for long paid lip service to the demands of the masses. The challenge facing the leaders who took power in 2024 is that the elites in their nations want policies which are diametrically opposite to what the masses want. Whilst many populists have come to power in the past few years, all of them failed to deliver. In 2025 it remains to be seen if these new leaders can navigate these competing challenges.
Global demographic decline – Over half the world’s nations have fertility rates below the replacement rate. In order to maintain a stable population a nation needs on average for there to be 2.1 children per woman. In the next 25 years over 75% of the world’s nations are expected to have fertility rates below this replacement rate. Whilst the end of the 20th century was dominated by rising populations and talk of a global catastrophe with the resources and agriculture not available to support an ever growing population. In the 21st century we are seeing the complete opposite. The developed nations have for long had declining fertility rates with Japan and Germany already in population decline. The population of a country affects everything from government budgets, the size of one’s military and the labour force. In Europe population decline is already having social implications with the dependency on immigration only growing. The trend to watch in 2025 is western attempts to deal with this growing menace.
Will Europe ever prepare for war? – In 2025 Russia will have the upper hand in Ukraine and the US will be looking towards Asia. European defence capabilities are perilously weak due to decades of cuts and lack of investment. With European leaders too busy dealing with domestic challenges they are unable to put up an effective front against Russia and have relied upon the US to take the lead. To deter Russia, Europe needs to be equipped by a defence industry with greater capacity. They need a command structure that unifies the European front. European security has for long been dominated by relying on the US and their ambition to go it alone. Muddling through is no longer a viable option. With Russia on top in Ukraine, 2025 is likely going to be the last point Europe can effectively alter the battlefield reality.
Will 2025 be the death knell for global free trade? – The US ever since it emerged the global superpower from the ashes of WW2 advocated global free trade. During the Cold war it was used to create prosperity in the West and after the USSR collapsed it went into fifth gear to globalise the world and turn it into one global market. But ever since Donald Trump came to power in 2016 he’s been calling for economic protectionism over free trade and nationalism over globalisation. He and his supporters now actually promote trade restrictions, tariffs and economic nationalism. Even before Trump has taken office in 2025 his economic plan consists mostly of anti-free trade policies. It’s China who now advocates for free trade and open markets. With Trump taking office on 20th January 2025 it’s likely we will see the funeral of free trade.
Incumbents have their work cut out curbing migration – 2024 was being called the year of democracy, where half of the world population went to the polls. The majority of incumbents were voted out of power due to their economic performance and immigration record. Voters punished the incumbents in the US and UK for failing on immigration. In 2025 the new rulers have their work cut out as dealing with immigration is not straight forward. Donold Trump is advocating mass deportations, but with the US in population decline without immigration his policy may be extremely difficult to implement. Across Europe immigrants are being blamed for all sorts of ills, but despite this immigration continues to rise as Europe needs foreigners to fill the gaps caused by population decline. The longer immigration is blamed for national problems, these problems and their causes will not be addressed and this will fuel further resentment. In 2025 it remains to be seen if nations that rely on immigration can balance between competing needs.
Will the AI bubble burst in 2025 – The mania for AI began with the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022. OpenAI’s chatbot attracted 100 million users within weeks, faster than any product in history. Investors also piled in and spending on AI data centres between 2024 and 2027 is expected to exceed $1.4 trillion. The market value of Nvidia, the leading maker of AI chips, has increased eightfold, to more than $3 trillion. But across the US only 5% of American businesses say they are using AI in their products and services. Few AI startups are turning a profit, and the energy and data constraints on AI model-making are becoming steadily more painful. The disparity between investor enthusiasm and business reality looks untenable—which means 2025 is shaping up to be a crunch year. The race to make AI more efficient and more useful, before investors lose their enthusiasm, is on.
Will 2025 be the death Knell for climate politics – The past few years have been difficult ones for climate politics. The COP29 summit in Azerbaijan at the end of 2024 ended in failure as fossil fuel lobbyists were able to water down emission reduction targets and action on them. The writing was on the wall on green politics since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as cutting off from Russian energy led many European nations to delay green targets and emission reduction goals. According to the Financial Times, “climate politics” could well shift into reverse during 2025. It is not only Trump who proposes a fundamentally different perspective on energy policy. Elections are either under way or coming in Canada, Germany and Australia, and possibly France, and in all these countries a debate is centring around energy costs and the negative impacts of decarbonisation policies.
Is Europe’s centre ground breaking – The poor performance of centrist parties in the EU elections in 2024 and the collapse of the government in the two heavyweights of Europe spells continued crises for the centre in Europe. The two countries who are central to the European Union, the European economy, European defense, and any hope of European strategic autonomy, France and Germany, within a month of each other, both saw their governments collapse due to battles over how to reduce their growing budget deficits. In both cases, their fiscal woes have been dramatically worsened by a combination of economic stagnation and pressure on welfare budgets with the new costs of rearmament and support for Ukraine. In both cases, the fiscal crisis has fed into the decay of the mainstream political parties that alternated in power for generations. The only alternatives to the centre are populist parties and leaders who usually are on the right and that creates all sorts of long-term problems. In 2025 it remains to be seen if these trends will spread to other parts of Europe where the political mainstream has been shifting to the right.
NATO Calls for wartime mentality – In December 2024 the NATO secretary-general gave a speech after meeting Donald Trump at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels. Mark Rutte told security experts and analysts that “It is time to shift to a wartime mindset”. Putin “…is trying to crush our freedom and way of life”, Rutte said. “How many more wake-up calls do we need? We should be profoundly concerned. I know I am…” he said. He urged the defence industry to boost production for defences against drones and other new war tactics. In the speech Rutte directly addressed the European populace when he said that they should tell their banks and pension funds that it is “…simply unacceptable that they refuse to invest in defence industry…” What this all means is that the drums of war are beating loudly. There is, by and large, a consensus among western political elites already that military escalation is the right path forward. Now, the wider society is being made mentally ready for the changes this entails. The peacetime dividend of the 1980s until the 2010s is gone now. In its place comes the war risk premium.
Is the world edging towards WW3? – In Europe the West is at war with Russia and in the Far East the US is gathering a bloc to counter China. After a three decade hiatus, great power competition is back and back with a vengeance. China and Russia are seen as the autocrats who want to uproot the global order and economic, social and military competition is playing out from the Pacific to the Mediterranean. Europe is being pushed to ready its population for war. NATO’s continued supply of arms and equipment to Ukraine will not be sufficient to push back Russia and in the Far East the US containment strategy has only seen Chinese military and technology capabilities grow. To maintain the status quo and to ensure the US remains the global superpower all the options short of war have not worked and what remains is for war between the two competing blocs. Whether this takes place in 2025 remains to be seen, but the march to war has begun.
