In part one of this two-part series, we highlighted that Syria became a battleground between the US and UK who backed different factions that caused many military coups leading to huge instability in the country. Amid this, Hafez al-Assad seized power in 1970, establishing a dictatorship centred around his family. He ruled with brutal repression, including the 1982 Hama massacre,[1] while consolidating control over Syria’s state and resources.
Despite his anti-US rhetoric, Hafez maintained close ties with the US, acting as a regional proxy. He allowed Israel to retain control over the Golan Heights and, fearing public backlash, withdrew from a full peace deal. His son, Bashar al-Assad, inherited power in 2000 and continued serving US regional interests. He provided intelligence to the US during the 2003 Iraq War, which ensured the neocon agenda of regime change in Syria didn’t happen. On the eve of the Arab Spring, the US viewed al-Assad as a “reformer.”[2]
When the Syrian uprising began in 2012, the US, despite its public portrayal of opposing al-Assad, ultimately backed his regime to maintain its interests. It coordinated with Russia and Iran to intervene, ensuring the Syrian regime’s survival while supporting select rebel groups to control the revolution’s direction.
Russia and Iran to the Rescue
Russia intervened in Syria in September 2015, after the US and Russia put aside their long standing differences. The US did this because in July 2015 Bashar al-Assad admitted in a televised speech before local dignitaries in Damascus, that the Syrian army had given up some areas of Syria, in order to fight elsewhere. “It was necessary to specify critical areas for our armed forces to hang on to. Concern for our soldiers forces us to let go of some areas. Every inch of Syria is precious. There is a lack of human resources… Everything is available [for the army], but there is a shortfall in human capacity,” Assad said.[3] This meant al-Assad’s forces had been crippled to the point they had to give up some areas in order to defend others.
Russia’s intervention in Syria proved to be pivotal in saving the al-Assad regime from collapse. Russian forces stabilised and strengthened President Bashar al-Assad’s government by providing airpower and conducting airstrikes against rebel groups. Russia expanded and beefed up its air base in Khmeiem which also acted as a supply base for weapons, missiles and ordinance to be used to defend the al-Assad regime.
In order to facilitate Russia’s presence, the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding on air safety in Syria in 2015. The MOU, aimed to minimise the risk of inflight incidents among US and Russian aircraft operating in Syrian airspace. The Pentagon’s press secretary, Peter Cook said at the time the MOU includes specific safety protocols for aircrews to follow, including maintaining professional airmanship at all times, the use of specific communication frequencies and the establishment of a communication line on the ground.[4]
When the Syrian uprising began in 2012, the US, despite its public portrayal of opposing al-Assad, ultimately backed his regime to maintain its interests. It coordinated with Russia and Iran to intervene, ensuring the Syrian regime’s survival while supporting select rebel groups to control the revolution’s direction
Iran’s intervention saw the country mobilise its resources and provide critical military forces, money and weapons. While Russia’s intervention was the turning point, Iran laid the groundwork for this and provided significant fighters on the ground who Russia provided air cover to. This saw al-Assad’s dependency on Iran deepen, leading to long-term Iranian influence in Syria’s military, economy, and politics. In time it became a major problem for al-Assad.
Iran provided significant economic and financial aid to prop up the Syrian regime; Tehran poured billions of dollars into Syria that included credit lines and oil shipments to keep the Syrian economy afloat. Iran also deployed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly the Quds Force, which played a leading role in advising and coordinating Syrian government forces. Iran also recruited, trained and funded thousands of Shi’ah militias that carried out massacres across Syria and helped regime forces retake towns and cities that were lost by the regime. In parallel to this Lebanon’s Hezbollah provided crucial manpower, when al-Assad’s army was crippled due to many units defecting to the rebels.
The fall of Aleppo, after years under rebel control in 2016 was the final turning point that enabled al-Assad to recapture most of the country. Iranian ground forces with Russian air support saved the al-Assad regime after committing untold atrocities and recapturing territory from rebel groups.
The Frenemy in Raqqa
Prior to Russia’s intervention in 2015, the al-Assad regime in 2013 was facing catastrophe when many officers defected from the Syrian army to the rebel groups that helped them seize much of Northern and Eastern Syria from the regime and were planning a final assault on Damascus itself. The regime lost Aleppo, Idlib and Raqqa, which became the first provincial capital to fall into opposition hands. Opposition forces also controlled parts of the Damascus suburbs. The al-Assad regime was forced to give up fighting for most of the country in order to defend Damascus.
At this moment, ISIS moved into Syria and turned the tide for Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Jabhat al-Nusra was founded in 2011 as an al-Qaeda affiliate. It was created by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, who was sent by al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to expand the movement into Syria. In April 2013, al-Baghdadi announced the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), merging his group (al-Qaeda in Iraq) with the Syrian-based Jabhat al-Nusra. However, Nusra’s al-Joulani rejected this and pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda’s global leader, leading to a split between the two groups. Baghdadi’s ISIS proceeded to move into Syria, regularly criss-crossing the Iraqi-Syrian border. ISIS seized control from the rebel groups of much of eastern Syria, including Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and parts of Aleppo province. In early 2014, when ISIS captured Raqqa, they made it the de facto capital of their so-called “caliphate.”
The origins of ISIS remain murky to this day. All of the senior leaders of ISIS were in US prison, Camp Bucca, south of Baghdad from 2004 in the midst of the insurgency against US forces during the Iraq war. Over the years the US released the insurgents who went on to form ISIS. Whilst ISIS began in Iraq it constantly streamed across the Iraqi-Syrian border, moving supplies in convoys of trucks that were never targeted by US airpower. The US even gave ISIS cover when it conducted strikes in Syria in 2014 against a new dubious group that was called ‘Khorasan,’ which officials at the time said was plotting an imminent attack on US soil. Bizarrely, the history of the Khorasan was virtually non-existent, and US officials never mentioned the group until the week before the strikes began in September 2014. Estimated at 50 fighters, the group suddenly became a huge pretext for military intervention, even though an air sortie on 23rd September 2014 reportedly killed 30 of them.[5] Andrew McCarthy, a former US federal terrorism prosecutor highlighted in the National Review magazine: “You haven’t heard of the Khorasan group because there isn’t one. It is a name the administration came up with calculating that Khorasan had sufficient connection to jihadist lore [so] that no one would call the President on it.”[6] Harakat Hazm highlighted the airstrikes were a significant US effort to destroy Jabhat al-Nusra, and a minuscule effort to destroy ISIS, and no effort at all to destroy al-Assad. This is very significant as Harakat Hazm, which was allied with the CIA-backed Free Syrian Army, was one of the first rebel groups to receive US anti-tank missiles. That effectively made it one of America’s most trusted allies in the Syrian conflict.
Janes Intelligence, the prestigious global security firm, released data that highlighted the number of operations conducted by ISIS and the Bashar al-Assad regime at the time. It found around 64% of verifiable ISIS attacks in Syria from November 21 2013 – November 21 2014 targeted other rebel groups. Just 13% of ISIS attacks during the same period targeted al-Assad’s forces. It also found al-Assad’s counterterrorism operations, more than two-thirds of which were airstrikes, skewed heavily towards groups whose names were not ISIS. Of 982 counterterrorism operations for the year, just 6% directly targeted ISIS.[7] ISIS and al-Assad rarely targeted each other. Further data from Janes on a regional level showed that there were 238 counterterrorism operations in Aleppo for the year through November 21 2014, but just 14 of those targeted ISIS. In the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa, there were 22 counterterrorism operations but just half targeted ISIS.
When ISIS was crossing the Syrian-Iraqi border supplying its forces, the US who had the resources and intelligence did not intervene. All this indicates that whether knowingly or unknowingly, ISIS served the US agenda of propping up the al-Assad regime
What ISIS did was enter into Syria when the al-Assad regime was about to collapse in 2013 and rather than join the rebel groups on their assault on Damascus they began taking territory that was already under rebel control. As a result, the rebel groups were forced to take on ISIS who forced them to fight on two fronts that split their resources and attention and took the pressure of al-Assad’s forces. The timing of the ISIS intervention was perfect for al-Assad. When ISIS was crossing the Syrian-Iraqi border supplying its forces, the US who had the resources and intelligence did not intervene. All this indicates that whether knowingly or unknowingly, ISIS served the US agenda of propping up the al-Assad regime.
The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend
The Kurds, comprising about 10% of Syria’s population and concentrated in the northeast, largely stayed out of the fight when the Arab Spring began in 2013 in Syria. But that changed in 2014, when ISIS swept across eastern Syria and northern Iraq, creating their so-called ‘caliphate.’ As a result, the Kurds organised into a militia to defend their territory.
The Kurdish groups consisted of multiple factions that coalesced into the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The largest fraction amongst them was the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The PYD and YPG were closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), who waged a protracted insurgency against Türkiye from 1984 to 2013 which included the widespread use of targeted killings and suicide bombings. The PYD formed in 2003 as a covert political branch of the PKK following former Hafez al-Assad’s expulsion of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan from Syria in 1998. The PYD maintained close ideological alignment with the political philosophy of the PKK, including the unique use of female fighters and a cult-like reverence for Abdullah Ocalan.
By the end of 2014 ISIS had saved the regime in Damascus and the US turned against ISIS and switched support to the Kurds. The US deployed special forces to work with the SDF, marking the first official US troop presence in Syria. The US-Kurdish partnership grew and this coalition took back territory from ISIS, with Raqqa falling in 2017. The last territory ISIS held in Syria was Baghouz, located in Deir ez-Zor province near the Iraqi border. The SDF, with support from the US defeated ISIS and retook Hasakah, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor from ISIS and held out at attempts by al-Assad from re-taking them. This meant the Kurds controlled the country’s oil-rich region, which is where US troops are still stationed today.
When Baghouz fell to the Kurds they took tens of thousands of ISIS fighters and their families into custody. Separate to these, thousands of ISIS fighters surrendered or were captured during multiple Kurdish-US offensives. Male ISIS fighters were placed in makeshift Kurdish prisons. Whilst the Al-Hol and Roj camps housed women and children associated with ISIS. The Kurdish administration has demanded foreign countries repatriate their ISIS nationals, but many refused. As a result, thousands of foreign and local ISIS members remain in overcrowded Kurdish-run detention facilities. Today the SDF still holds over 10,000 ISIS fighters in prisons across northeastern Syria, while thousands of women and children remain in refugee camps.
The rise of the Kurds in Syria caused worry in Türkiye, who saw them as affiliated to the PKK. When President Trump abruptly ordered the withdrawal of most US forces in North Syria in October 2019, Türkiye invaded North Syria, seizing control of a slice of northeastern Syria from the Kurds and it still occupies these today.
Türkiye Expands into North Syria
From the beginning of the uprising in Syria, Türkiye backed elements of the opposition against Bashar al-Assad. Türkiye provided financial support, arms, political coordination and intervened in North Syria which saw its influence grow over elements of the opposition. Türkiye allowed the Free Syrian Army (FSA) which consisted of defected soldiers from the Syrian army to operate from Turkish territory, helping it organise offensives.
From 2016 Türkiye launched multiple military operations that expanded its influence and created rebel-controlled zones. Whilst many of the offensives targeted Kurdish held areas, Operation Spring Shield in 2020 saw Türkiye engage Syrian government forces in Idlib, which prevented the collapse of rebel defences.
Numerous agreements between rebel groups and the Syrian regime, guaranteed by Russia and Türkiye, saw the creation of de-escalation zones which permitted rebel groups and their families to leave the areas they were fighting and relocate. This saw many rebel groups end up in Idlib in North Syria, which was effectively under the control of Türkiye.
Türkiye rebranded and organised rebels into the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly FSA) under Turkish military command. The SNA became Türkiye’s main proxy force in northern Syria, relying on Turkish weapons, salaries, and logistics. Turkish intelligence (MIT) played a major role in mediating disputes between the many rebel factions.
Al-Assad had managed with Iranian and Russian help in 2016 to cripple the uprising against him, but the north of Syria needed to be recaptured. In 2020, the Syrian government forces launched an offensive into Idlib, the last major rebel-held province and the last remaining territory out of government hands.
Whilst Russia supported the Syrian government offensive into Idlib, Russia wanted to avoid direct conflict with Türkiye, and this led to a ceasefire agreement between Türkiye and Russia who were backing opposing forces in Idlib. Much to the anger of al-Assad the ceasefire helped freeze the frontlines and Russia and Türkiye agreed to conduct joint patrols to enforce the ceasefire. The deal that was brokered stopped al-Assad from retaking Idlib. Although Russia and Türkiye were in theory backing opposing forces – Russia was backing the al-Assad regime and Türkiye the opposing rebel groups, much to the anger of Bashar a-Assad, Russia and Türkiye coordinated in Idlib.
Whilst Russia supported the Syrian government offensive into Idlib, Russia wanted to avoid direct conflict with Türkiye, and this led to a ceasefire agreement between Türkiye and Russia who were backing opposing forces in Idlib. Much to the anger of al-Assad the ceasefire helped freeze the frontlines and Russia and Türkiye agreed to conduct joint patrols to enforce the ceasefire
Idlib: The Battle within a Battle
Idlib was the last rebel stronghold after Aleppo fell in 2016. Many of the rebel groups that were either defeated elsewhere or entered into agreements ended up in Idlib. In the North of Syria, the Kurds controlled the North-East of the country and Türkiye and the rebel groups it backed controlled the North-West of Syria.. A consortium of different rebel groups controlled Idlib and over the years, control of Idlib shifted due to infighting, external interventions and battles with the Syrian regime forces
Syria’s rebels captured Idlib city in March 2015 during ‘Operation Victory Army’ by combining and carrying out an operation with coordination and sharing of resources. The main groups were Jabhat al-Nusra – who had split from ISIS, Ahrar al-Sham, who was one of the largest groups during the uprising with tens of thousands of fighters, as well as the Free Syrian Army, which was backed by Türkiye. The victory in Idlib forced all the various factions to co-operate in its administration and the outcome saw mixed results.
In 2016, Abu Muhammed Joulani rebranded Jabhat al-Nusra as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Whilst Joulani was originally sent by the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Bakr Baghdadi, to expand into Syria, Joulani operated separately and this led to tensions that saw him swear loyalty to Al Qaeda global leader Aymen Zawahiri. This led to tensions between ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra and only got worse when al-Nusra took part in the Idlib operation and then administered the territory. ISIS accused Joulani of betrayal, leading to defections and the formation of Hurras al-Din, a new al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, which HTS crushed in 2020.
Rebranded as HTS, Joulani then turned against Ahrar al-Sham, defeating it and taking over Idlib. HTS absorbed and eliminated the smaller factions, becoming the dominant force by 2017 in Idlib. HTS established a civilian front, called “Syrian Salvation Government” (SG) as its political and administrative arm. The SG functioned like a state, with a prime minister, ministries and local departments overseeing sectors such as education, health and reconstruction, while maintaining a religious council guided by the Shari’ah.
HTS prioritised stability, public services and reconstruction and showcased Idlib as a model of success under HTS rule, enhancing both his group’s legitimacy and Joulani’s own political aspirations. Under his leadership, HTS had crushed and marginalised other factions, both jihadists and rebels to consolidate power. During its rule in Idlib, HTS avoided meaningful combat against government forces and marginalised jihadists and foreign fighters in Idlib to prevent them from engaging in such actions. This was all achieved with Turkish cooperation.
During its rule in Idlib, HTS avoided meaningful combat against government forces and marginalised jihadists and foreign fighters in Idlib to prevent them from engaging in such actions. This was all achieved with Turkish cooperation
Bashar: The Survivor
By 2022 the US began to push the regional Arab nations to begin normalising relations with the regime in Damascus. Barbara Leaf, Assistant Secretary of State, highlighted in 2022 that the US had sent a message to the Arab rulers about their shift in policy. “They want to try an engagement. Our approach on that score is that make sure to get something for that engagement.”[8] The Biden administration blocked Congress from moving forward with the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act.[9] The Biden administration also began saying it would let the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act expire at the end of 2024.
On the 19th May 2023, the Assad regime regained Syria’s seat at the 32nd League of Arab States’ Summit that took place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, marking the end of over a decade of regional boycott and Assad’s exclusion from Arab circles.
In the West, Italy was the first nation to appoint an ambassador to Syria, marking the end of 13 years of severed diplomatic relations. Italy undertook this decision independently of the EU’s collective foreign policy, despite significant sanctions imposed on the al-Assad regime by Western states. The Italian government, led by Giorgia Meloni and supported by seven European countries, aimed to repatriate Syrian refugees and cater to Italy’s right-wing and populist claims, over and above neglecting human rights values.
October 7th 2023
Prior to the Hamas’s assault on Israel that led to a change in the security architecture of the region, the regional landscape was stabilising with al-Assad being seen by most as the legitimate ruler of Syria and with the Abraham accords, normalisation was moving in earnest between Israel and a host of regional Arab states.
Bashar al-Assad had turned his position around after 13 years of war. The uprising had been crippled with regional and global powers coming to al-Assad’s aid. Both direct support from Iran and Russia and indirect support from the US, who was the long-term guarantor of the regime. Whilst, externally, normalisation with the Syrian regime was increasing, domestically al-Assad was facing some major challenges.
Tensions were growing with Iran and although al-Assad always admitted Iran and Hezbollah helped his regime to survive, he expected them to withdraw after defeating the rebels. Instead, Iran intensified its military and intelligence presence without al-Assad’s consent and against his plans to retake parts of the country that he didn’t control. Iran was using its intervention in Syria to consolidate its presence in Syria regardless of who occupied the presidency. After taking control of much of Syria, by 2022 al-Assad no longer needed Iran and concluded Iran’s presence will discourage Western countries from contributing to Syria’s reconstruction.
by 2022 al-Assad no longer needed Iran and concluded Iran’s presence will discourage Western countries from contributing to Syria’s reconstruction
On the eve of October 7th the Syrian economy was in a state of severe crisis with widespread poverty, significant infrastructure damage, and a pressing need for international assistance to facilitate recovery and reconstruction efforts. Manufacturing, production and services were all in a disastrous state after 13 years of war and this meant many soldiers, security officials and those linked to the regime didn’t receive salaries and corruption was rife with militia groups helping themselves to the country’s resources. The security class in Syria had been in constant war for 13 years and the economic situation was dire, even for those who supported the regime.
Iran since the beginning of the uprising against the al-Assad regime poured in considerable resources to prop up Bashar al-Assad and his regime. As the years turned into a decade along with western sanctions this was hurting the Iranian economy. The Covid-19 outbreak made things even worse and the lockdowns were used by the Iranian regime to clamp down on growing domestic protests. Resentment and suspicion between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah was also growing as Syria became the theatre for significant amounts of Iranian attrition. Hezbollah lost some of its most able commanders in Syria – in part to rebels, in part to Israel, and in part to Syrian forces themselves, with whom they repeatedly clashed over suspicious deals with the president’s brother. Iranian commanders who fought in defence of the Syrian regime were consistently liquidated by Israeli air strikes and in many suspicious circumstances. From 2020 al-Assad’s began dismissing many ranking Syrian security and military personnel who appreciated what Iran did for their country, the Syrian-Iranian relationship was deteriorating.
For Iran, embedding itself in Syria and maintaining a long-term permanent presence was a prize worth paying for as this aided its strategic position in the region. This went directly against the wishes of al-Assad, who depended on Iran’s intervention for survival but as far as al-Assad was concerned he had won against the uprising and Iran had now outlived its welcome.
The security class in Syria had been in constant war for 13 years and the economic situation was dire, even for those who supported the regime
Israel watched in horror when the Arab Spring began in Syria in 2013. Israel’s most secure border had been its border with Syria. This cooperation, despite all the rhetoric of being enemies, saw Israeli security officials line up to defend al-Assad. Maj-Gen. (Res) Amos Gilad said in an interview with Israel Radio that Assad is in total control of his country’s weapons systems and is acting sensibly with regard to Israel.[10] The Ex-IDF chief Dan Halutz said Israel prefers that Assad stay in power. “The regime in Syria kills its citizens every day, but we must acknowledge that the opposition in Syria is composed of Muslim extremists like al-Qaeda.”[11] Whilst Israel saw the al-Assads as a critical player in maintaining Israel’s most secure border, they always saw Syria’s relationship with Iran and Hezbollah as a problem. This is why Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes against military targets in Syria, that mostly targeted Iranian military infrastructure in Syria such as weapons depots, command centers and drone bases. Israel also regularly struck Hezbollah weapons convoys in order to prevent advanced weapons from reaching Lebanon. Israel also conducted covert operations inside Syria, including the assassination of key figures linked to Iran and Hezbollah. In 2020, Israel assassinated Iranian general Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Syria.[12] Israel also used Hezbollah’s entry into Syria to carry out covert intelligence program into Hizbullah’s structure, which was how they were able to assassinate all its senior leaders in 2024 in Lebanon.[13]
Türkiye played the most active role in Syria and on the eve of October the 7th had successfully carved out a sphere of influence in northern Syria. Türkiye supported rebel forces, it fought against the Kurds and prevented their expansion, it fought ISIS and managed refugees and took part in the political conferences and settlements with other powers about the future of Syria.
Russia provided al-Assad with airpower and support ever since it intervened in 2015. This was in cooperation with the US and was one of the factors that drove many of the rebel groups into the arms of regional powers and the US. But when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and the difficulties it initially faced, its attention turned to its war in Europe and its position in Syria became secondary and fell in terms of priority. Russia’s presence was never large in Syria, at its peak there were 5,000 security and military personnel in Syria, this was a small to medium operation for Russia.
As far as the US was concerned on the eve of October the 7th Syria remained a proxy for her and she had successfully used both regional and international powers to maintain the status quo in the country. Whilst the US could have removed al-Assad and his regime and stopped all the bloodshed and deaths, the US saw its interests best secured by ensuring the uprising did not succeed. This was why the US was pushing the Arab rulers to normalise relations with al-Assad from 2022, as the uprising was over by this point.
the US could have removed al-Assad and his regime and stopped all the bloodshed and deaths, the US saw its interests best secured by ensuring the uprising did not succeed. This was why the US was pushing the Arab rulers to normalise relations with al-Assad from 2022, as the uprising was over by this point
October 7th and Reshaping the Region
Israel has always considered the military capabilities of the surrounding nations in the region as a mortal threat. Israel is an artificial creation by the Europeans and was established as a settler colony. Israel has always been outnumbered in the region and is minuscule in size when compared to the other regional nations. This is why Israel has for long viewed its survival as only possible with the destruction of the military capabilities in the region. This is why in the past Egypt was an enemy and then the armed groups and Iran became Israel’s enemy, that presented an existential threat to her. Despite US attempts to normalise relations between Israel and her neighbours, the Israelis have constantly resisted this.
From at least 1996, the Israeli strategy to solve this security nightmare has been an aggressive policy that envisions the overthrow of a number of regimes as well as the destruction of the military capabilities of others that could threaten Israel. This was converted into policy in 1996 and called – ‘A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm,’ which was prepared by the neocons that saw the overthrow of the regimes in Iraq, Syria, Iran and Libya, the destruction of the WMD’s and military capabilities of the region and then the establishment of a new region based on western values and with Israel’s security problems solved. But when the Neocons came to power during the George W. Bush administration, they attempted to implement this strategy and failed due to the insurgency in Iraq and subsequent failures in Afghanistan.
When the events of October the 7th, 2023, took place, Netanyahu used the event to bring the clean break strategy back again as the attack on Israel provided the opportunity to reshape the security balance in the region. The Financial Times described this new policy as: “Across the Middle East, Israel now sees an opportunity to take the fight to its foes and attempt to impose a new order: what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls a “strategic turn” to change “the security reality in our region for generations to come.”[14] Netanyahu repeated on multiple occasions the opportunity to reshape the region. Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers in December 2024: “I said yesterday that we are in a period of days of greatness, but also challenging days. These are large days – because in them we are changing the strategic reality in the Middle East.”[15]
When the events of October the 7th, 2023, took place, Netanyahu used the event to bring the clean break strategy back again as the attack on Israel provided the opportunity to reshape the security balance in the region
What ensued from Israel was the Clean Break strategy from 1996, but on steroids. On many occasions Israel even disobeyed the US administration to reshape the region. Despite US attempts to curtail Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, Israel proceeded to commit a genocide in Gaza and make it unliveable for the people there. Israel’s onslaught saw it target Hamas’s military capabilities and then it turned on Hezbollah. This was despite the White House calling upon Israel not to escalate and open a second front.
By the time Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah on the 29th of September 2024 and the group’s entire senior leadership, the US aligned with Israel to strategically alter the region’s security and change the situation in Syria. This meant the situation in Syria needed to be altered as Hizbullah’s supply lines ran through Syria and Syria’s military capabilities were always seen as a threat by Israel. To bring Syria in line with the new regional set up both Iran and Russia needed to be ejected from Syria.
the situation in Syria needed to be altered as Hizbullah’s supply lines ran through Syria and Syria’s military capabilities were always seen as a threat by Israel. To bring Syria in line with the new regional set up both Iran and Russia needed to be ejected from Syria
13 Years of War in One Week
After 13 years of war in Syria and after spending this whole period propping up the regime, the US changed tact and immediately prepared the rebel groups who would topple the al-Assad regime. The Revolutionary Commando Army (RCA), a group aligned against ISIS, were told “this is your moment” in a briefing by US Special Forces. Having worked with the RCA to dismantle the so-called ISIS caliphate, the US was still paying their salaries. Capt Mashadani and his fellow commanders said American officers at Al Tanf base brought the Abu Khatab brigade and other units under the joint command of the RCA. The RCA’s ranks grew from about 800 to as many as 3,000. Capt Mashadani confirmed the RCA and the fighters of HTS, who were led by Mohammed al-Jolani, were co-operating, and communication between the two forces was being coordinated by the Americans at Al-Tanf base, on the Syria-Iraq border.[16]
Whilst the US organised the groups in the South of Syria it was Türkiye that had for long managed the groups in the north of Syria. Türkiye maintained their military capabilities and dealt with Russia, Iran and the al-Assad regime on the rebel groups behalf. When the rebel groups stormed Aleppo on the 30th of November and eventually captured it they were organised into the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room, which was led by HTS and also included the National Liberation Front, the Jaysh Al-Izza group as well as the Syrian National Army (SNA). All of them have for the last decade been under Turkish tutelage.
When these Turkish backed factions moved onto Hama, they faced no opposition from regime forces, who were in disarray. Russia was forced to carry out airstrikes and Iran after more than a decade of war and reeling from its losses in Lebanon, Palestine and now direct war with Israel, was forced to call upon pro-Iranian groups in Iraq to intervene.
The US began to openly attack Bashar al-Assad. NSC spokesperson Sean Savett said Syria’s refusal to engage in a political process and its reliance on Russia and Iran had created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of Assad regime lines in northwest Syria.[17]
The rebel groups advance to a great extent was enabled by the coordinated use of new, highly sophisticated drone technology, which needed outside support. The opposition created the “Shahin” unit, specializing in the production, manufacturing, and development of advanced drones and weapons. The Shahin unit used turbojet-powered kamikaze drones that would be difficult to manufacture due to the complexity of their production, supply chain and sophisticated use of materials.[18] Türkiye’s role and the use of sophisticated drones indicate that the anti-regime forces were not as spontaneous and independent, as was made out.
Türkiye’s role and the use of sophisticated drones indicate that the anti-regime forces were not as spontaneous and independent, as was made out
Iran began to move its forces out of Syria, even before Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed on the 8th of December 2024. Iran withdrew its military commanders and personnel including top commanders of the powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps. The two top generals of Iran’s Quds forces, deployed to advise the Syrian army, fled to Iraq as the rebel groups took over Homs and Deir al-Zour.[19] Iran had done nearly all of the heavy lifting to prop up the al-Assad regime, as regime forces were ousted from Aleppo and Homs, Iran decided its regional priorities had changed with Hezbollah decimated in Lebanon and Hamas devastated in Gaza, as well as its now direct war with Israel, Syria had now fallen in importance.
Russia provided air-support to Syrian forces to defend Aleppo and Hama, but these fell extremely quickly to rebel forces. After a decade of supporting the al-Assad regime, Russia was now heavily committed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, limiting its ability to send additional reinforcements to Syria. Ukraine was always more important to Moscow than Syria was ever going to be. Even with Russian air support, the Syrian army was unable to mount an effective counteroffensive. Despite Russian airpower, regime forces on the ground were capitulating en masse. Moscow had concluded, even before the fall of Damascus, that preserving its military assets was more important now then a prolonged battle with advancing rebels. Russia relocated its forces to Libya. After a decade of defending the al-Assad regime, Russia determined preserving and protecting its military assets was more important than defending the al-Assad regime.
Within 48 hours of the fall of the al-Assad regime, Netanyahu said “I authorized the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army, so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists. We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security.”[20] The Israeli air force conducted more than 350 strikes on targets including anti-aircraft batteries, military airfields, weapons production sites and combat aircraft and missiles. In addition, missile vessels struck the Syrian naval facilities of Al-Bayda port and Latakia port, where 15 Syrian naval vessels were docked. Israeli officials said the strikes across Syria were aimed at destroying strategic weapons and military infrastructure to prevent them being used by rebel groups. Israel also moved into the demilitarised zone of the Golan Heights, eventually annexing all of the strategic territory and the border areas into Syria. Israel claimed that with al-Assad gone, all previous deals were now null and void.
Iran had done nearly all of the heavy lifting to prop up the al-Assad regime, as regime forces were ousted from Aleppo and Homs, Iran decided its regional priorities had changed with Hezbollah decimated in Lebanon and Hamas devastated in Gaza, as well as its now direct war with Israel, Syria had now fallen in importance
Within one week the long term al-Assad dynasty was gone, its military capabilities destroyed, and the strategic Golan heights were now fully seized by Israel. Iran and Russia were humiliated as all the blood and treasure spent to prop up the regime had gone down the drain. They had nothing to show after spending over a decade in the country trying to maintain the status quo.
The US maintained its position as master over Syria and shuffled who its proxy was in the country. Türkiye played a key role in nurturing this proxy and building its capabilities. Israel achieved its long-held belief of cutting Hizballah supply lines and destroying Syria’s military capabilities and reversing Iran’s position in the country.
From Bad Terrorist to Good Terrorist
Ahmed al-Sharaa has been known to the US since he was imprisoned in Camp Bucca in 2004. When he took power in Damascus on the 8th of December 2024 he was meeting with global leaders, presenting an image of moderation and someone the world can rely upon. Gone are the jihadi attire and military uniform and now he’s only seen in tailored suits.
Since assuming power, al-Sharaa has hosted meetings with foreign delegations, primarily from the Arab world but also from the United States, Türkiye and Ukraine. The US removed the $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa after the meeting between US diplomats and al-Sharaa in Damascus in December 2024, marking the first official US diplomatic engagement. During the meeting, al-Sharaa committed to preventing terrorist groups from operating within Syria or posing external threats, including to the US and its allies. In response, the US lifted the bounty to facilitate ongoing dialogue.
Iran and Russia were humiliated as all the blood and treasure spent to prop up the regime had gone down the drain. They had nothing to show after spending over a decade in the country trying to maintain the status quo
Whilst al-Sharaa’s group is a designated terrorist organization, in January 2025 HTS was dissolved and all the various groups and rebel forces were amalgamated into Syria’s new military forces. Al-Sharaa’s message for the world has not been one of Islam or the Shari’ah. Despite his ideological roots in Salafi-jihadism, he has never supported the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate.
Syria is in many ways in a similar situation to Afghanistan. Both nations need foreign aid, they need foreign support and the rulers in the capital are really just one warlord amongst many. The Kurds control 33% of Syrian territory and in the south of Syria Israel is expanding. In the coastal areas the Alawites remain an influential force and in Iraq there are Shi’ah militia groups with their eyes still on Damascus.
Syria has lost its military capabilities. It’s been in a devastating war for 13 years which has put the country back decades. A UN development report believes it will take five decades for Syria to get back to pre-war economic levels.[21] Syria’s new leader will need foreign help for reconstruction, and this is how the US will keep the country within its sphere of influence.
[1] See, https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/the-legacy-of-hamas-massacre/
[2] “As Syria Conflict Rages On, Clinton’s Rhetoric Intensifies”, ABC News, 2012, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/syria-conflict-rages-clintons-rhetoric-intensifies/story?id=16561069
[3] Syria’s Assad admits army struggling for manpower, al Jazeera, 26 July 2015, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/7/26/syrias-assad-admits-army-struggling-for-manpower
[4] U.S., Russia Sign Memorandum on Air Safety in Syria, US dept of State, 20 Oct 2015, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/624964/us-russia-sign-memorandum-on-air-safety-in-syria/#:~:text=The%20MOU%20went%20into%20effect,communication%20line%20on%20the%20ground
[5] We’re Not Sure Their Capabilities Match Their Desire,’ forighnpolicy.com, 23 September 2014, https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/09/23/were-not-sure-their-capabilities-match-their-desire/
[6] Syrian air-strikes: Does the US have the foggiest idea who their enemy is? Independent, 29 September 2014, https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/syrian-airstrikes-does-the-us-have-the-foggiest-idea-of-who-their-enemy-is-9763439.html
[7] Syria, ISIS Have Been ‘Ignoring’ Each Other on Battlefield, Data Suggests, nbcnews, 11 December 2014, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/syria-isis-have-been-ignoring-each-other-battlefield-data-suggests-n264551
[8] Arab Countries Should get Something for Normalization, US Official Says, 30 March 2023, https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2023/03/30/arab-countries-should-get-something-from-syria-for-normalisation-us-official-says/
[9] Biden is letting Assad off the hook, with dangerous consequences, The Washington Post, 30 April 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/30/biden-assad-syria-sanctions/
[10] ‘Israel prefers Bashar Assad to Islamist rebels,’ Times of Israel, 18 May 2013, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-prefers-assad-to-islamist-rebels/
[11] Ex-IDF chief: Israel prefers that Assad stay in power, Times of Israel, 11 December 2013, https://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-idf-chief-israel-prefers-that-assad-stay-in-power/
[12] Who was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, an Iranian general killed by Israel in Syria? Al-Jazeera, 2 April 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/2/who-was-mohammad-reza-zahedi-the-iranian-general-assassinated-by-israel
[13] How Israeli spies penetrated Hizbollah, ftc.om, 29 September 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/6638813e-e246-4409-9a38-95bf60a220a8
[14] Israel unbound: the campaign to reshape the Middle East, Financial Times, 4 November 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/9af7a433-db1a-4c19-a0fb-d587ffec8f99
[15] Netanyahu says he aims to ‘dramatically change’ region with new peace accords, Le Monde, 23 December 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/23/netanyahu-says-he-aims-to-dramatically-change-region-with-new-peace-accords_6736398_4.html
[16] US ‘prepared Syrian rebel group to help topple Bashar al-Assad,’ The Telegraph, 18 December 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/18/us-prepared-syrian-rebel-group-to-help-topple-bashar-assad/
[17] Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad, Reuters, 1 December 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aleppo-airport-closed-sources-say-syrian-rebels-reach-heart-city-2024-11-29/
[18] How Syria’s rebellion, increased Turkish presence can shift power dynamics – analysis, Jerusalem Post, 1 December 2024, https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-831486
[19] Iran Begins to Evacuate Military Officials and Personnel From Syria, The New York Times, 6 December 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html
[20] Israel says its air strikes destroyed most of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpiles, euractiv, 11 December 2024, https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/israel-says-its-air-strikes-destroyed-most-of-syrias-strategic-weapons-stockpiles/
[21] The Impact of the Conflict in Syria, UNDP, 20 February 2025, https://www.undp.org/syria/publications/impact-conflict-syria
