“All Out” War on Iran Returns

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In our previous analysis of the US – Israel Alliance War om Iran, we explained our 3W perspective on the current escalation in fighting across the Gulf.

We said that this development aligns with our “overarching hypothesis” when it comes to geopolitics in the Middle East. Israel leads US thinking, so in the end Israel gets the outcomes it wants. US policymakers either believe they are serving US interests by following Israeli plans, or they are pressured into selling Israeli interests as US interests to the US public.

This dynamic was again on display last week, as according to The Wall Street Journal, one of the reasons US president Trump elected to (again) escalate the War on Iran was Israeli “intelligence” which said that Iran had devised a plan to assassinate him. Clearly Trump believed the report he received, as he spoke about it to reporters. “They want to take out the US leader — me,” Trump told reporters. “I’m on whatever list. I saw this morning I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess I’ve been a bit lucky, but maybe that doesn’t last very long. These are evil, sick people. And we have to root out that cancer. That cancer. You know what you do? You’ve got to cut out cancer early. And that’s the way I feel.” In the 3W view, the assertion is plainly absurd. The act would not further Iranian geopolitical interests, and it is unlikely the country has the capability to perform it. But that doesn’t matter. If the US president believes it, it nudges the US to actions that align with Israel’s plan for the Middle East: war.

when it comes to geopolitics in the Middle East. Israel leads US thinking, so in the end Israel gets the outcomes it wants.

And war is what the Middle East is getting.

On Monday, the US attacked Iran for a third consecutive day, writes The New York Times. US forces struck coastal defense systems and missile and drone sites across the country to “further degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping,” it said, adding that the targets included Bushehr, Chahbahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa and Bandar Abbas. Iran responded by striking US military targets across Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, NYT adds.

For the first time, the US used its version of Iran’s Shahed attack drones against Iran, adds The National. The weapons were deployed alongside fighter aircraft and naval vessels. The US military says such drones cost just $35,000 each. 3W notes this enables the US to maintain the “Slow Burning” phase of the conflict in a low-cost manner.

And the US is not yet done, it appears. US president Trump said he would be reinstating the naval blockade on Iran. And, as part of that military operation, institute a fee of “20%” on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection, writes The New York Times. The fee is to pay for the US military protection. For a large tanker carrying two million barrels of oil, the fee could add over $30 million in costs. “The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World,” Trump posted to social media. 3W notes this undermines the moral justification the US has been pushing for its military operation in the Gulf. The US told the world that under international law there should be free shipping through international waterways, and hence that Iran’s desire to control shipping and demand a fee for “environmental and security services” is a breach of international law. In late June, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law”, notes NYT. Noting the obvious hypocrisy, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi ridiculed in this latest Trump announcement, saying on X: “POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair.”

In addition, US president Trump said that next, the US military will take out Pickaxe Mountain in Iran, writes Reuters. Pickaxe Mountain, located ​near Iran’s heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, is ​a heavily fortified site that hosts two deeply buried tunnel complexes that ‌experts ⁠assess as beyond the reach of the most powerful bunker buster bombs in the US arsenal.

As a result, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a halt again, writes Bloomberg. Essentially the only ships moving now, are oil-laden vessels connected to Iran. Six US-sanctioned supertankers, capable of carrying a combined 12 million barrels of crude, have passed through the strait into the Gulf of Oman in the past week with their transponders turned off. Since the lifting of the original US naval blockade as part of the MOU, Iran has now shipped out at least 57 million barrels of crude.

The US is also progressing with the other elements of its current plan for Iran, which we at 3W laid out in an earlier analysis.

As to the “Omani Route” for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz outside of Iranian control, Iran keeps pushing back hard against this part of the current US plan. On Monday, it struck two Emirate crude oil tankers that tried to exit Hormuz via the Omani route under a US naval escort, writes The National.

As to limiting Iran’s ability to project power via allied partners, Yemen is sliding back into all-out conflict warns the United Nations, according to The National. Over the past two weeks, the national airport of the capital city Sana’a, controlled by the Houthi’s has come under attack by Saudi Arabia and the national government moment it supports in the country. The trigger for the attacks are flights between Tehran and Sana’a to facilitate contact and coordination between Iran and the Houthi’s.  The Houthi’s responded to the latest attack by sending missiles into Saudi Arabia, and said the incidents in Sana’a’ ended a “de-escalation phase” of Yemen’s civil war, The National writes separately. 3W notes this makes it likely that all out war in Yemen will start again. While the ordinary people of Yemen would greatly suffer from this, it would limit the ability of the Houthi’s to support Iran, which therefore probably is the objective behind the current escalation.

At 3W we now see few ways to halt the current trajectory of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, from the “Slow Burning” phase of the conflict back to a “Hot War” phase. Sooner than we expected, all thanks to an Israeli report for US president Trump.