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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
It has now been almost a week since the original two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran expired. Since then, US president Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire a few times, but even those extensions have expired.
During this period, the US has continued to build up its military presence in the Middle East region. A third aircraft carrier has now arrived in the region, the USS George H.W. Bush, writes CNN. Somer analysts are of the opinion this buildup indicates an intent to restart military operations. Others say that while this might be the message Washington wants to deliver to Tehran, in reality the arrival of the Bush is to relieve the USS Gerald R Ford, which has been deployed since June 2025, well past the normal seven or so months US carriers deploy under normal circumstances.
While both analysis are valid, as in rational, in the 3W view the latter makes the most sense from a strategic perspective. Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, notes that since the US – Israel Alliance has not been able to militarily defeat Iran, it really has no realistic option left but to pursue a diplomatic solution, writes Al Jazeera.
If strategic thinking were to dominate elite US policy making circles, the current military presence, and the US naval blockade on Iran would be designed to get a better position at the negotiating table. Some of Trump’s recent comments support the view that this is going on. Trump cancelled a trip by Witkoff and Kushner to Islamabad over the weekend, saying the US holds “all the cards”, that he is in “no rush” to make a deal, and that he will be waiting for Iran to make a call to the US to ask for negotiations, writes Time Magazine. This gives the impression the US believes it has Iran in a stranglehold and it is just a matter of time before Tehran will voluntarily agree to the unconditional surrender terms the US – Israel Alliance has been seeking. Indeed, Trump told reporters over the weekend that due to the US naval blockade, Iran has just three more days before its oil infrastructure is filled up with oil, risking explosions, writes The Wall Street Journal.
since the US – Israel Alliance has not been able to militarily defeat Iran, it really has no realistic option left but to pursue a diplomatic solution
The US also downplayed Iran seizure of a Greek-owned vessel called the Epaminondas and the Panama-flagged MSC-Francesca last week. The operation, designed to retaliate for the US’s seizure of an Iranian cargo ship a few days earlier, did not violate the ceasefire, White House, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, writes the BBC. This, in the 3W view, indicates the US is playing for time. But, we add, this does not rule out the possibility that the playing for time is just to prepare for a fresh round of military attacks!
Israeli defense minister Katz said during a security assessment says that Tel Aviv is ready to resume the fighting against Iran, and is waiting for a “green light from the United States” to kill Iran’s new supreme leader and “to return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure.”, writes The Times of Israel.
In the 3W assessment, what is really happening is a coordinated “good cop bad cop” routine by the US – Israel Alliance, with the US pretending to be a reasonable partner that is holding back the “wild dog” Israel if Iran agrees to negotiate on US terms.
It seems Iran does not feel pressured to achieve a quick deal to avoid another military escalation. As mentioned, it has continued its strategy of “tit for tat”, by seizing the two vessels, meaning it is not backing down in any way. In addition, Al Jazeera writes that Iran is hardening its stance when it comes to negotiations. According to Iranian media, it will not negotiate with the US as long as the US naval blockade is in effect, and it will refuse to include the country’s civilian nuclear program in the negotiations. Axios confirmed the report, writing that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while nuclear negotiations are to be postponed for a later stage.
The US – Israel Alliance demands have been nothing short of an unconditional surrender by Tehran
Iran’s foreign minister is on an international trip to “sell” the Iranian proposal to end the current stalemate, writes The Associated Press. Over the weekend Abbas Araghchi travelled first to Pakistan, then to Oman, before traveling onward to Russia to meet president Putin on Monday. Araghchi also spoke by phone with counterparts in Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Sunday.
3W’s summary conclusion is that it is unclear at this stage which direction the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran will go. It could indeed be that the Alliance will launch another surprise attack on Iran. But it could also be that it believes time is on its side and is therefore waiting for Iran to beg for a negotiated settlement.
As to the first option, at 3W we see no way through which the Alliance military can comprehensively defeat Iran in a second round of attacks. Iran has proven capable of absorbing tremendous pain –not just now but also during the 8-year Iraq – Iran War of the 1980s. And since the Alliance’s War on Iran is an existential threat to Iran’ current ruling system, it should be expected to fight to the death. If the first four weeks of the current war proved anything, it is that the US – Israel Alliance is not militarily capable of defeating an enemy that is both physically and mentally prepared for this war. Therefore, if the Alliance escalates again, at 3W we foresee this will cause damage but fail to defeat Iran. If anything, it threatens to lead to devastation across the Middle East region, as Iran should be expected to retaliate against strikes on its infrastructure via strikes on the infrastructure of the GCC countries. The fallout from another Alliance military attack will therefore be a humanitarian catastrophe not only in Iran, but across the Middle East, as well as a global economic catastrophe as not only the shipping of Persian Gulf energy, petrochemicals, fertilizers and helium will end up disrupted, but also production.
it is unclear at this stage which direction the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran will go. It could indeed be that the Alliance will launch another surprise attack on Iran
As to the second option, if the US really believes that Iran will cave under the naval blockade, it is, well… stupid. The US – Israel Alliance demands have been nothing short of an unconditional surrender by Tehran. A naval blockade will not bring Iran to accept this. Nothing will. In this scenario, in other words, the disruption of global supply chains involving energy, petrochemicals, fertilizers and helium will continue for an extended period of time – something the current global economic world order will not be able to handle. The outcome would be a crisis that combines an energy supply crisis akin to the one from the 1970s but on steroids, with a financial crisis akin the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The current talk of the “threat to vacations this summer” ignores the fact that come June, lights will go out globally, transportation will stop, industries will collapse, prices will skyrocket, and millions will be thrown into deep poverty and hunger just as during the Depression of the 1920s and 1930s. (See Bloomberg for an assessment of the war’s impact on food production.)
The only thing that could potentially present this disastrous outcome is an early realization by the “Rest of the World” of how damaging the US – Israel Alliance’s War on Iran is for them, and unites to pressure the US to back off. There is little indication that Europe’s political elites realize this – but they are hopeless. But China, together with Russia and India, could mobilize the Global South, and deploy military pressure (support for Iran to make a restart of the war too costly for the Alliance) and economic pressure (export controls on critical inputs into the global economy, e.g. energy and rare earth minerals) to force a negotiated settlement in which the Alliance tones down its demands to create an opportunity for a deal.