Will Israel Get What It Wants – A War to Destroy the Arabian Gulf Region?

The US military operation inside Iran, which 3W reported on yesterday, according to the Iranians was in fact an operation to capture the country’s enriched nuclear material, writes Anadolu Ajensi. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told a Monday press conference, adding that the location where a US pilot was reportedly present in southwestern Iran was far from the area where US forces tried to deploy or conduct operations, reportedly in Isfahan, central Iran. “This raises the possibility that the operation may have been a deceptive plan to steal enriched uranium, which cannot be ignored,” he said. 3W notes there has been significant online speculation on this subject, as the facts appear to contradict the official US story (as set out by for example Axios). For a summary of the apparent contradictions, our readers could refer here.

At 3W, we do not rule out the possibility. For one, because it would nicely explain the clear frustration (bordering on madness) displayed by US president Trump last Sunday and Monday, as we also covered yesterday.

As to where things stand today. As far as Iran is concerned, there is still an opportunity for a negotiated settlement. Foreign Affairs gave a platform to Javad Zarif, Iran’s former vice president, foreign minister, and permanent representative in the United Nations, to explain what Iran proposes, and why. Zarif notes that “the Iranian Street” is incredibly angry with the US – Israel Alliance. He writes, “Since the turn of the millennium, the Islamic Republic and its people have been repeatedly betrayed by U.S. officials. Iran provided assistance to the United States against al-Qaeda in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, only for President George W. Bush to include Tehran in his “axis of evil” and threaten to strike it. President Barack Obama’s administration negotiated and struck the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran’s leaders, but Tehran’s verified, meticulous compliance with the agreement did not lead the administration to normalize Iran’s global economic relations, as it had promised. Iranian compliance also did not stop Trump from tearing the deal apart and then following it with a vicious campaign of “maximum pressure”: strict sanctions designed to impoverish Iran’s 90 million people. Those policies continued under President Joe Biden, even though he had promised to resurrect diplomacy.” From there, the current Trump administration only made things worse, Zarif adds. “When Trump returned to office for a second term, Washington’s approach became even more misleading. The White House said it was interested in striking a new deal, and Iran sent its most capable diplomats and experts to negotiate. But Trump quickly proved to be unserious. Instead of deploying experienced envoys, he sent two real estate developer confidants—his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his golf buddy Steve Witkoff—who were completely illiterate on both geopolitics and nuclear technicalities. When they predictably failed to understand Iran’s generous offers to reach a deal, the White House launched its massive, armed assault against Iranian civilians.” Nevertheless, Iran will ultimately be better off if it can end the war sooner rather than later, Zavid says. Prolonged hostility will cause a greater loss of precious lives and irreplaceable resources without actually altering the existing stalemate. So, despite Iran holding the upper hand in the conflict – which 3W agrees with –it should use this position not to keep fighting but to declare victory and make a deal that both ends this conflict and prevents the next one. Considering this, Iran can accept a deal that limits its nuclear program to a purely civilian one, with oversight by the US, China and Russia, if in return the US ends all sanctions and other forms of restriction on Iran, enabling it to reintegrate in the world economy. In addition, the US should allow Iran to toll traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, from which Iran and the wider Gulf region can then finance the reconstruction of what has been destroyed over past months. Post this reintegration, Iran promises to rebuild ties with the Arabian Gulf countries. Building on Iran’s previous offers of regional security arrangements, starting with its 1985 suggestion—enshrined in UN Security Council Resolution 598, its offer of a nonaggression pact in 2015 and its Hormuz Peace Endeavor in 2019, writes Zavid. The Arabian Gulf countries ignored these offers, he adds, because they assumed they didn’t need to work with Iran as they felt safe under the US military umbrella. The current war has proven this umbrella is not really a protection, nor does it promote peace, Zavid says. The US clearly views all its so-called Arab allies in the region merely as shields it can use in defense of Israel, Zavid further says.

The US – Israel Alliance continues to insist on one of two outcomes, however: unconditional Iranian surrender or turning the country into a failed state

That the above is not just an individual’s perspective became clear on Monday, when Iran issued its own peace proposal, countering the US – Israel Alliance’s proposal. The New York Times writes that the 10-point proposal demands from the US – Israel Alliance a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the lifting of all sanctions. In return, Iran would lift its de facto blockade of the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. But, it would continue impose a fee of roughly $2 million per ship that it would split with Oman, which sits across the strait. Iran would use its share of the proceeds to reconstruct infrastructure destroyed by American and Israeli attacks, rather than demand direct compensation. Iranian state media said that the text of the Iranian proposal “rejected a cease-fire” and “emphasized the necessity of a permanent end to the war in line with Iran’s considerations,” NYT notes. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday at a news conference that the American proposal conveyed through intermediaries was “extremely excessive, unusual and illogical.”

The US – Israel Alliance continues to insist on one of two outcomes, however: unconditional Iranian surrender or turning the country into a failed state. In a Wall Street Journal interview, US president Trump reiterated on Sunday the US was prepared to hit all of Iran’s bridges and power plants, creating enough damage that it would “take 20 years to rebuild, if they’re lucky, if they have a country.” Trump on Monday then said the Iranian proposal is “not enough”, writes Reuters. In addition, The Wall Street Journal writes that the US and Israel have a set of targets lined up in Iran designed to cripple the country’s economy and ensure the regime’s recovery from this war is long and painful. This plan appears to have been in execution since the weekend, 3W notes. Last week, Iranian state media said petrochemical plants in Tabriz were attacked by the Alliance. On Saturday, the Alliance also struck Iran’s petrochemical complex in Mahshahr. Then on Monday, the Alliance attacked Iran’s petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh.

Further adding support for the thesis that escalation is the most likely next step, Barak Ravid, the former Israeli intelligence operative who is now Axios’ main foreign affairs correspondent, writes on X (in Hebrew) that on Monday, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu urged President Trump in a phone call not to pursue a ceasefire at this stage. Trump told Netanyahu that if Iran agreed to US demands, a ceasefire might be reached, but stressed that he would not give up his demand that Iran hand over all its enriched uranium and agree not to renew enrichment. 3W notes that this Trump message probably please Netanyahu, as his demands make a US – Iran ceasefire agreement essentially impossible – which is why for the negotiations that took place when this war started, Israel pushed the US to adopt the demand of “no nuclear program and no ballistic missile program”, knowing that equates to an Iranian surrender and thus would not be acceptable to Tehran. Writing for Axios, Ravid adds that the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and Lindsey Graham also urge Trump not to agree to a ceasefire. (Regarding this 3W notes that it is not confirmed that Saudi is indeed on this camp. Israel-aligned sources, like Axios and the Wall Street Journal, always say it is, but for example Reuters has previously denied it.)

The Associated Press writes that Trump has been advised he risks committing war crimes if he does what he has threatened to do. Trump said that he’s “not at all” concerned about committing war crimes. It highlights, in the 3W view, how low the US has sunk – and that, as we at 3W wrote yesterday, and Trita Parsi also said speaking to Chris Hedges, the US has adopted the Israeli way of fighting war – with a complete disregard for human life or human rights.

Trump has been advised he risks committing war crimes if he does what he has threatened to do. Trump said that he’s “not at all” concerned about committing war crimes. It highlights, in the 3W view, how low the US has sunk

No surprise, then, that on Monday Iran reported that the US – Israel Alliance had attacked the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, one of the country’s top science institutions, writes Reuters. On Tuesday, then, it reported airstrikes had destroyed a railway bridge in Kashan, a train station in Mashhad, and a highway bridge near Tabriz on Tabriz-Tehran freeway, writes The Associated Press. This indicates, in the 3W view, that the escalation Trump threatened is already underway, because the escalation would feature bridges in addition to power plants, as Trump insanely tweeted over the weekend.

Nevertheless, Iran is not backing down. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard warned Tuesday it would “deprive the US and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years” if Trump carries out his threat to attack power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t open, writes The Associated Press. Some in Iran also called on “all young people, athletes, artists, students and university students and their professors” to form human chains around power plants, writes The Associated Press. Iranians have formed human chains in the past around nuclear sites at times of heightened tensions with the West, notes AP.

In the midst of all this, Bloomberg has the audacity to write “Iran Keeps Up Attacks Before US Deadline, Dimming Peace Chances” – as if Iran is the aggressor! The reporters Omar Tamo, Eltaf Najafizada, and Dan Williams appear to have titled their article “US and Israel Target Sites in Iran as Trump’s Deadline Nears”, which is of course much nearer to the truth. But someone at the editorial desk chose to change this, in what can only be seen as hardcore propaganda at play. 3W highlights this as a warning to our readers – get the facts and form your own opinion.

Where do we go from here. One hopes for a TACO, as nothing the US – Israel Alliance can do will force open the Strait of Hormuz. It will only make the global energy, petrochemical and fertilizer situation worse and throw the global economy in a deep, deep crisis. Perhaps this realization will cause some to intervene – inside the US political, military or economic elite; or from inside the elites of major powers such as China, Russia, or even the EU, all of which could take economic actions which would severely hurt American interests. But at 3W we do not see this as likely, at this stage. And as such, we fear Israel will get what it wants – a war to destroy the Arabian Gulf region.