What Iran Should Now Demand From the US Empire

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Writing for Foreign Policy, Iran-expert Trita Parsi alongside George Beebe explains his view on how the US could end its war on Iran. Parsi starts by noting that “It is already evident, more than three weeks into the joint US-Israeli military operation, that airpower alone will not produce regime change in Iran, despite its effectiveness in eliminating specific Iranian leaders. Similarly, while airstrikes are undoubtedly reducing the number of Iranian ships and missile launchers, they cannot erase Iran’s nuclear know-how. Nor can they eliminate Iran’s elusive drone force or its readily concealable arsenal of mines, fast-attack patrol ships, torpedoes, and other means of attacking the transportation routes and critical infrastructure on which the Persian Gulf states and the world economy depend. Ground troops cannot fix this problem either. Small-scale special operations are almost certainly incapable of securing the well-defended coastline along the Strait of Hormuz or destroying Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, let alone preventing Iran from attacking vulnerable Gulf state energy facilities or vital desalination plants.” Because of this, Parsi and Beebe propose that the USA proposes a ceasefire to Iran under which it promises not to attack Iran, and hold Israel back from attacking Iran or its allies across the region. In addition, the US would give some sanctions relief, in return for which Iran ends its fighting as well, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and re-enters into nuclear negotiations with the US “aimed at eliminating Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and, in keeping with Trump’s red line, ending any possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapon.”

For once, we at 3W must disagree with Parsi. His proposal is crafted from the US perspective. It offers the US an acceptable and face-saving way out of the mess it finds itself in currently. However, when looked at from the Iranian perspective, it makes no sense whatsoever. Under the terms of the Lebanon ceasefire agreement of 2024, the US promised it would hold Israel back from attacking Hezbollah (if certain conditions were met) – a promise it never lived up to. Under the terms of the Gaza ceasefire agreement of 2024-2025, the US promised it would hold Israel back from attacking Hamas (if certain conditions were met) – a promise it never lived up to. It agreed the JCPOA with Iran, after years of negotiation, and then simply walked away from it.  And as to the proposed “limited sanctions relief” and “new rounds of nuclear negotiations”, if Iran were to accept this part of Parsi’s proposal, it would effectively accept to remain the “pariah state” that the US has made it into. Considering the (military and economic) battlefield realities, Iran would be foolish to accept this. In the 3W view, Its national interests, as well as its rights as defined by the United Nations’ principles of international law, demands from Iran that it accepts nothing less than (A) an end to the US military presence in the countries of the Arabian Gulf, because that is the only security guarantee of practical value; (B) a complete end to all forms of sanctions on the country; (C) recognition of Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear program; (D) recognition of Iran’s right to a self-defense, which includes a ballistic missile program, as well as a nuclear weapons program if Israel does not sign to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and allow Iranian inspectors complete and unrestricted access to its nuclear facilities; (E) recognition of Iran’s right to compensation for the damages caused by the US – Israel Alliance wars against the country, via tolling of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; (F) all of these conditions should be formally agreed via a treaty adopted by the US Congress and the United Nations.

US public opinion is clearly on the side of ending the war. Two-thirds of Americans believe that the U.S. should work to end its involvement in the Iran war quickly, even if that ​means not achieving the goals set out by the ‌Trump administration

This will certainly be a bitter pill to swallow for the US, and the Israeli pressures on US president Trump to not accept it would be massive. In anticipation of this, what Iran should do is make all the alternatives to a deal on the above basis even more bitter for the US. This Iran could do by signing formal military and economic collaboration treaties with Russia and China, under which Russia and China receive unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, the Yuan is made the currency used for Iranian crude sales and toll levies, and Russian and Chinese companies receive preferential access to Iranian energy development projects, in return for close military collaboration, including the establishment of (small) Russian and Chinese military basis in Iran for training and coordination purposes. Iran should also offer access to the Strait of Hormuz to all other countries of the world, excluding the US and Israel, on the basis of preferential tolling rates, but on condition they sign formal agreements with Iran and end any kind of support for the US – Israel Alliance military operations against Iran. And, Iran should invite the countries of the Arabian Gulf to participate in the tolling scheme, including a sharing of the proceeds, on similar conditions. These moves would give Iran additional options and initiate isolation of the US and Israel.

The fact that, Axios writes, US president on Tuesday told reporters that US forces could leave the Middle East in “two or three weeks” supports the 3W assessment of what Iran should now do. When asked how he planned to bring oil prices down, Trump answered, “All I have to do is leave Iran, and we’ll be doing that very soon.” US forces are “finishing the job,” he said, giving varying estimates from “two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer,” to “maybe three.”

Yesterday, 3W analysed that Trump is being pulled between on the one hand his natural instinct, which is to leave Middle Eastern wars, and on the other hand the Zionist lobby in the US, which as per Netanyahu’s plans wants a continuation and ideally an escalation of the war. The above statements by Trump confirm the prior. The Wall Street Journal’s response confirms the latter. The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, it writes. Emirati diplomats have urged the US and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the strait by force, it says. The Gulf state has also said the US should occupy islands in the strategic waterway including Abu Musa – which, incidentally, is claimed by the UAE. This, 3W notes, is messaging designed to convince Trump to keep on fighting: “Don’t stop, the next push will turn things around!”

Trump is being pulled between on the one hand his natural instinct, which is to leave Middle Eastern wars, and on the other hand the Zionist lobby in the US, which as per Netanyahu’s plans wants a continuation and ideally an escalation of the war

The Europeans are supporting an end to the war. In fact, they are even ready for the Iranian outreach that 3W outlined above. This is evidenced by the fact that Trump is taking an increasingly annoyed tone toward Europe’s lack of support for the US-Israeli war effort, writes The Associated Press. Reuters writes that France over the weekend refused the US overflight rights. The US flights would be delivering munitions to Israel, and after initially providing the overflight rights specifically because the US said the ammunitions would be used against Iran, at the last moment France had a change of heart and refused the rights for that specific reason. In the 3W assessment, this means the Europeans are open to a deal with Iran, in bypassing of the US.

In summary, the 3W assessment is that the “push and shove” is not yet over. US president Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran, writes Bloomberg. That will provide more insight into the direction the war go.

US public opinion is clearly on the side of ending the war. Two-thirds of Americans believe that the U.S. should work to end its involvement in the Iran war quickly, even if that ​means not achieving the goals set out by the ‌Trump administration, a Reuters poll found.

In addition, Bloomberg writes that the War on Iran is crushing US treasury bills. They are poised to mark their biggest monthly tumble since Donald Trump returned to the White House. 10-year yields are up 35 basis points on the month, reflecting inflation risks from higher energy costs and diminished likelihood of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the coming year. With US debt levels where they are, this is a major problem for the US, 3W notes., There are also the additional negative consequences associated with higher interest rates, such as depressed consumption and business investment. This means, in the 3W assessment, that “bond market” (much more powerful than US public opinion) is also pushing Trump to end the war.