Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
Earlier this week, 3W looked at the peace offering the US made to Iran. We noted the US 15-point plan was more a demand than an offering, consisting of essentially the same “unconditional surrender” demands that the US – Israel Alliance had put on the table when it pretended to seek a diplomatic solution with Iran. Based on this, we concluded that the negotiations would fail. And therefore we speculated that the US peace offering most likely was another attempt at deception of Iran, to hide the fact that the Alliance is working on another escalation, a ground invasion of Iran.
In this roundup, we take a look at developments since we wrote that analysis.
Firstly, the Alliance keeps claiming its war is a tremendous success. US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said on Wednesday the Alliance has by now struck 10,000 targets in Iran, writes Anadolu Ajensi. Cooper said the US destroyed 92% of the Iranian Navy’s largest vessels, and has also “significantly” degraded Iran’s naval drone and missile capabilities. “We’ve also removed the regime’s ability to rebuild them,” , Cooper added.
However, 3W notes that a broad realisation is sinking in that Iran has not been defeated by the US – Israel Alliance. While the US and Israel have pounded Iran’s missile-launching sites, hitting some over and over across almost a month of war, Tehran’s missiles have kept on flying, writes The Wall Street Journal. In fact, while Iran is now sending fewer missiles and drones, it is striking targets at a higher rate than early in the conflict, WSJ notes. The Financial Times writes that according to Israeli assessments; the Iranian political leadership is now more firmly established than at the start of the war. Consequently, the Israeli military is increasingly sceptical that regime change in Iran will be possible in the coming weeks, FR writes.
In this situation, US president Trump extended his deadline for negotiations with Iran by another 10 days, writes Axios. “As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time”, Trump wrote on Truth Social. 3W notes that Trump is very carefully spinning everything to give the impression Iran is begging for a peace deal, but the facts simply do not support this. Among the evidences for this 3W assessment is the fact that, as Axios notes, the Iranians have officially rejected the 15-point plan, and have so far not agreed to a meeting with the Americans to discuss a peace deal.
Trump is very carefully spinning everything to give the impression Iran is begging for a peace deal, but the facts simply do not support this
In fact, what is happening is that the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran is developing into a stalemate, writes The Associated Press. This, 3W notes, is actually a victory for Iran. One reason is that it was attacked, and as such, if the Alliance does not achieve its aims, it has successfully defended itself. Another, more important reason is that in the current situation, Iran has escalation dominance. It has established a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively is a stranglehold over the US and even global economy, which is turning US and global public opinion strongly against Trump, Netanyahu, and their respective countries.
An example of this is Germany. Its president Frank-Walter Steinmeier and foreign minister Johann Wadephul criticized the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran earlier this week, with Steinmeier calling the war a “politically fateful mistake” that constituted a “breach of international law”, writes Deutsche Welle. “Our transatlantic relationship finds itself in the midst of a profound change: I myself find many things confusing, and some of them irritating,” Wadephul said, avoiding specifics. “The international order that we’ve known for the last 75 years is under pressure — some people are trying to destroy it.”
This is not just grandstanding, 3W notes. No doubt the political elites around the world understand very well how the Alliance War on Iran will hurt them. The Global South, due to its limited financial capabilities, will suffer the brunt of the fallout from the war. Already numerous countries in Africa and Asia have been forced to ration energy, writes the BBC. And global frustrations around the world are set to increase further. The Alliance War on Iran is disrupting planting season around the northern hemisphere. The world’s farmers face soaring fertiliser and fuel prices as the war in the Middle East escalates, leaving some scrambling for supplies as the spring planting season approaches, writes Reuters. Because of a global grains glut, many farmers were already expecting to lose money on this year’s crop. Now the outlook is especially gloomy for farmers who still need to buy spring fertilizer. Food production is likely to go down, while food prices go up, writes The Associated Press. The global semiconductor supply chain is also beginning to suffer, as the War on Iran has disrupted helium exports from Qatar, writes Reuters. Helium is used in several key stages of chipmaking, including cooling, leak detection and precision manufacturing processes, and its prices have soared since the Middle East crisis began. Companies have few immediate options beyond slowing output and prioritising critical products. In “semiconductor land” the hope is now for a quick resolution of the war, as prolonged shortages could force production cuts and ripple through industries from electronics to automobiles. And at home in the US, the Federal Reserve is getting worried about the impact the war will have on inflation and employment, writes Bloomberg.
So what options does the US – Israel Alliance have at present? It either accepts defeat, or tries to force a turnaround in the war, because it loses if the stalemate continues, 3W notes. Trump himself realizes this, writes The Wall Street Journal, which is why he has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks.
It seems the Alliance is betting on “one last big push” to turn the war around in its favour. The Pentagon is developing military options for a “final blow” in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, writes Axios. This is language that reminds 3W of the First World War, where both sides also believed in “one last big push” to turn the war around. In the end, the frontlines hardly moved for 4 years and million were killed. Just as WWI generals, the US is preparing for this push, however, with the US army readying an additional 10,000 groundtroops for deployment in the Middle East, writes The Wall Street Journal. These troops would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region. Axios writes that the Pentagon is focusing on taking six Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz; Kharq, Larak, Abu Masa, Greater Tunbs, Lesser Tunbs, and Qeshm.
Iran has escalation dominance. It has established a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively is a stranglehold over the US and even global economy, which is turning US and global public opinion strongly against Trump, Netanyahu, and their respective countries
It all makes little sense, in the 3W view. One reason is that we do not see how taking Iranian islands, or even occupying Iran’s coastline, would prevent Iran from effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. Through the use of missiles and drones it would continue to be able to target and strikes vessels trying to sail through the Strait. Another reason is that any military operation in the Strait involving ground troops would lead to massive casualties on the US side. The US has no more bases in the region from which to deploy and support these troops, which would therefore become easy targets for Iranian missiles and drones – even if the Alliance achieves “air superiority”. This war is not 2003 Iraq. This war is Ukraine 2022, and one can ask the Russians how much fun it is to invade another countries with an effective drone capability.
This reality is not lost on serious analysts on the West. For example, Foreign Affairs writes that “It is becoming increasingly clear that the current U.S.-Israeli campaign of missile and drone strikes is not about to topple the entrenched regime. Nor will it entirely knock out Iran’s conventional capacities such that Tehran cannot interfere with passage through the Strait of Hormuz or threaten facilities vital to the global energy trade. The United States might now feel the urge to escalate, potentially using ground forces to seize Iranian facilities and territory or backing separatist forces around the country. But the risks of these forms of escalation far outweigh their possible gains. At this point, with the global economy jittering and the Middle East in convulsions, Washington’s best bet is not to further commit to a war it entered recklessly but to find a way out.” Similarly, The Economist writes that Trump “may be tempted by dramatic escalation, inflicting damage on Iran’s civilian infrastructure and oil industry in the hope of compelling it to reopen the strait. Marines could grab Kharg Island and its oil infrastructure, take slivers of coastal territory or occupy islands inside the strait. That might bring limited military benefit. But none of those gambits looks like a potential knockout blow. Iran could still fire missiles and drones from inside the country, or try to mine the strait. Occupying soldiers would quickly morph into sitting ducks… The less bad option, therefore, is to seek serious negotiations… Trump must agree to a full ceasefire, and compel Israel to abide by it. Talks on reopening the strait and steering Iran away from its nuclear programme will be bitterly difficult. And any eventual deal will be worse than what could have been struck before the war began, because Mr Trump has unwittingly strengthened the hand of hardliners and made clear the leverage they have over the strait. The result is that for now, at least, the advantage lies with Iran.”
So unless Trump and Netanyahu have developed a plan so brilliant that it will surprise the entire world, their unwillingness to accept defeat is most likely to lead to another Vietnam or Afghanistan, and thereby hasten the demise of US Empire. And that will end Israel’s ability to bully its neighbours into submission, and thereby either force it to negotiate on equal terms, or… accept the end of the Zionist project.