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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the current state of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, and analyse how it could develop from here?
At a briefing for reporters on Tuesday morning, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth and general Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the US has struck more than 5,000 targets in Iran in 10 days, writes The New York Times. They also said Tuesday would be “our most intense day of strikes.”In Tehran alone these attacks killed at least 460 people while 4,309 others were left injured, the deputy head of Tehran Emergency Health Department said, according to Anadolu Ajansi.
US president Trump said regarding these attacks on Iran, “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough”. He added that the war will now be over “very soon”, but not yet this week, writes Axios. Trump claimed that after 10 days of fighting, the U.S. military is where it thought it would be only after a month of war. He listed as the US military achievements so far the destruction of the Iranian navy, air force, anti-aircraft systems, radar and telecommunications, and the decimation of Iran’s leadership.
3W notes a number of things. Firstly, the US leadership has now said the war would last a few days, then up to 4 weeks, then up to 8 weeks. But now it’s down to a few more days again. Secondly, it has said the war is about Iran’s nuclear program, the freedom of Iran people, Iran’s regime, and Iran ballistic missile program. But now the “military successes” are essentially limited to destroying the outdated and dilapidated conventional elements of Iran’s armed forces, its air force, navy and air defenses. No word anymore about nuclear program or ballistic missile program. The Wall Street Journal has a more detailed analysis of how the Trump administration’s messaging on Iran has changed over the past 10 days.
What this all really means, in our 3W view, is that our thesis that Iran is winning (Bloomberg: “Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Unprecedented Strain”; Reuters: “Satellite firm extends Middle East image delay to prevent use by US adversaries”) and the US is looking for an “off ramp” is confirmed. Trump is looking for something that will enable him to declare victory and run, now that it has become clear to him he will not be able to achieve the original objective of regime change in Iran, through which Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs would be ended.
Israel, meanwhile, has also confirmed our thesis that is seeks destruction of Iran as a nation. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have spoken nearly every day since the war began, sometimes more than once a day, writes The Wall Street Journal. Netanyahu has also held conversations with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and envoy for Iran. These conversations have made it clear to US officials that Israel wants the war to last, after the US expressed a desire to end the bombing campaign. But Israel also knows it is completely dependent on the US. That is why, as Israel is well aware that Trump could end the war at any moment, it is fighting as if every day is the last.
As to what Iran is trying to achieve in this war, according to Seyed Marandi, speaking to Glenn Diesen over at the latter’s Substack, the country is very confident following the first ten days of the war. It has refused ceasefire negotiations with the US because it no longer sees a return to the former status quo as a desirable outcome. Instead, Iran demands that the permanent threat to its existence, in the form of the US military presence in the Gulf region, come to an end. As to Iran’s plan to achieve this, firstly, it will continue to attack the US and Israel’s military infrastructure in the region to degrade and destroy it. Second, it intends to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. This will have devastating impacts for the global economy and will therefore lead to large domestic, regional and international pressure on Trump to negotiate with Iran on Iran’s terms. The outcome of these negotiations should be that the US agrees to leave the Gulf region – if not, Iran will attack again any time it notices efforts by the US to reconstruct its bases. Complete sanctions relief will also be a hard Iranian demand, of course, as well as acceptance of its civilian nuclear program and its ballistic missile program for self-defense purposes. And, Marandi says, Iran will demand a fee from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, to finance the rebuilding of Iran following the US – Israel Alliance wars of aggression against it.
Then as to how this war is likely to play out. Axios has crafted 5 scenarios. The first sees Iran surrender in the way Germany did in WWII. The second sees Iran surrender in the way Venezuela recently did. The third sees the Iranian regime collapse under domestic pressure – after which the new regime surrenders. The fourth see the US put boots on the ground to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. The fifth and last see the US looking for an excuse to declare victory, and then leave. The New York Times has four scenarios. The first is regime change, after which Iran surrenders. The second is regime modification, after which Iran surrenders. The third is a ceasefire and return to the pre-war status quo, with sanctions on Iran remaining. The fourth is regime collapse and civil war in Iran.
3W will try to be as polite as possible in our evaluation of these “scenarios”: Bullsh*t! When 8 out of the 9 scenarios predict an endgame that is aligned with the US – Israel Alliance wishes, then we are not talking about scenario thinking but about propaganda masquerading as analysis. The Financial Times scenarios are much more grounded in today’s realities, but let us provide you with the 3W view on how things can, and can not, develop from here.
3W will try to be as polite as possible in our evaluation of these “scenarios”: Bullsh*t! When 8 out of the 9 scenarios predict an endgame that is aligned with the US – Israel Alliance wishes, then we are not talking about scenario thinking but about propaganda masquerading as analysis.
A proper scenario analysis starts with the reality as it is today. This reality is that after 10 days of bombing, Iran’s strengths and weaknesses have not fundamentally changed. It is hit. Again and again. But it has absorbed these hits and continues to deliver painful blows to the US – Israel Alliance military infrastructure across the Gulf. The Alliance’s radar systems in the Gulf are now knocked out, leaving the Alliance to depend primarily on radar stations in Turkey and Cyprus. The Alliance’s command and control centers in the Gulf have similarly been destroyed, leaving the Alliance dependent on centers further away from the battle field, in Israel, on the US naval fleet, or in the US. And, Iran has created a massive problem for the global economy through blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Economic collapse is now looming. In this situation, what can the Alliance do to turn things around?
One option is bomb more. But doing more of the same, expecting a different outcome, is closer to insanity than strategy. So this not really a scenario.
Another option is to escalate. US boots on the ground is not really an option. The current situation is already too politically damaging for the Trump administration, and there is no domestic support for this war. It is impossible for the Alliance to justify, therefore, and will lead to domestic revolt.
What is a plausible escalation scenario is civil war, via entry of the Kurds and the Balochis (and possibly the Azeri’s) into the war. This scenario would of course make a mockery of the Alliance claim that it wants to help the Iranian people achieve freedom, but that is unlikely to be a concern for Washington and Tel Aviv – they will lie their way out of it. In this scenario, Iran would collapse, become a failed state, incur millions of deaths due to infighting, and see its capabilities destroyed. This is the ideal scenario from the Israeli perspective.
Another escalation option is dragging the Gulf states into the war, and through that, Pakistan, as it has a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia. This would enable an attack on Iran on 2 fronts, and in this scenario the Muslim states could put boots on the ground – and incur the casualties that the US is unable to risk. This scenario does not guarantee a decisive victory for the Alliance, as the armies of the Gulf states are of low quality, as evidenced by the war in Yemen. But it can lead to Iran showing more willingness to negotiate a deal, something like JCPOA plus. It comes with a significant risk of Arab Spring plus, however, as sentiment on the Arab (and Pakistani) street is clearly with Iran.
A third realistic scenario is that the current status quo remains. In this case, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains, the risk of an energy crisis, and as a result of that a financial crisis, which would combine to threaten a systemic economic crisis, increases on a day-by-day basis. Financial markets would in this case quickly nosedive as oil and gas prices go up, and countries start to ration energy supplies. Due to unpopularity of this war around the world, the Alliance should in this case be expected to cave to pressures from at home and abroad to end the war. Declare victory and pack up. More detailed scenarios can be constructed as to how the US – Israel Alliance would do this (Will the US surrender and leave the Gulf? Will the war become a low intensity but lingering conflict, under which the diplomacy remains dead, the Alliance attacks stop in return for an opening of the Strait?), but that can be analysed at another time.
A fourth realistic scenario is the nuclear option. In this case the US – Israel Alliance escalates by attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure. In this case, Iran should be expected to respond in kind across the Gulf, making the Strait of Hormuz a “sidestory” as the ability of the Arabian Gulf to produce oil and gas is destroyed. The US is not stupid enough to down this path, but Israel is.
Is the nuclear option an option? In other words, could the Alliance decide to use nuclear weapons to pressure Iran into surrender, for example via detonation of a nuclear bomb somewhere in the Iranian desert? At 3W we don’t see it as likely, as US military strategists know that Iran has 60% enriched nuclear fuel and can therefore relatively quickly build a bomb – or “lease” one from its allies Russia, China or North Korea, who should not be expected to just sit idly by if this scenario were to materialize.
Lastly, is there a “surprise” scenario? Can the US – Israel Alliance pull a rabbit out of a hat that turns the war decisively in its favor? In the 3W view, never say never. But looking at how the Trump administration has managed this war, or most things it has touched over the past 14 months, we would not assign great probability to it.