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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we continue our close look at the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran.
An array of press briefings took place in the US yesterday, as the Trump administration sought to craft a narrative for its attack on Iran that would satisfy its domestic audiences. The 3W take away is that this confirms our assessment from yesterday, which is that the Trump administration is scrambling to deal with a reality that it had not expected. Iran has been striking back much harder and much more effectively than anticipated.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The attempts to bring the Kurds into the fight against Iran
- How the War on Iran threatens to affect the global economy; and why especially Europe stands exposed
- The war between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Geopolitics
Indications that the US – Israel Alliance military operation is not proceeding as planned came yesterday when UU president Trump, his secretary of state Rubio, the general in command of the US army, and his secretary of defense Hegseth, all spoke to the press.
US president Trump said the war on Iran could go on for the next four weeks, writes Reuters. “It’s always been a four-week process. We figured it will be four weeks or so. It’s always been about a four-week process so – as strong as it is, it’s a big country, it’ll take four weeks – or less,” he said.
US secretary of defense Hegseth then rejected the idea that the US attacked Iran with the express goal of toppling the regime, writes the BBC. “This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change,” Hegseth said during a news conference with General Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, directly contradicting Trump’s statements from Saturday when he called upon the people of Iran to rise up and do a “regime change”.
US general Dan Caine then announced the US is moving more troops and hardware to the region. “This work is just beginning and will continue,” Caine said, according to The New York Times. Caine also said he expected the US to “take additional losses”, and refused to answer a question on how long the military operation will take. Caine did say the US could “sustain the fight” against Iran, but military officials privately have expressed concern about running low on munitions, raising the possibility that the Pentagon may have to dip into stockpiles reserved for other potential conflicts around the world.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio topped it all off, saying that “the hardest hits are yet to come from the US military” in the offensive against Iran, writes The New York Times, The “next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now,” he declared. “What they are trying to do and have been trying to do for a very long time is build a conventional weapons capability as a shield where they can hide behind,” Rubio said. “Meaning there will come a point where they have so many conventional missiles, so many drones and can inflict so much damage that no one can do anything about their nuclear program.”
As to how the US – Israel Alliance could escalate, US president Trump spoke by phone with Kurdish leaders in Iraq on Sunday, writes Axios. The Kurds have thousands of soldiers along the Iran-Iraq border and control strategic areas that could be significant as the war develops. Iraq’s Kurds also have close ties to Iran’s Kurdish minority. The calls were the culmination of months of behind-the-scenes lobbying by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has had close security, military and intelligence ties with the Kurds in Syria, Iraq and Iran for decades. It is the general view, and certainly Netanyahu’s view, that the Kurds are going to come out of the woodwork … that they’re going to rise up,” one Israeli official said.
The BBC noticed the Trump administration is changing it narrative around its War on Iran. initially it said its goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. But in the hours and days since, the rationale shifted. The US now says it is seeking to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and navy, its ability to develop nuclear weapons, and support for proxy groups in the region. Trump argued the broader purpose of the war was to protect the US and its allies from attacks by Iran, by driving a regime change.
The 3W takeaway from these US press briefings is that the Trump administration is scrambling to deal with a reality that it had not expected. As we wrote yesterday, Iran has been striking back much harder and much more effectively than anticipated. And this is creating a domestic problem for president Trump, exactly as 3W forewarned in our Saturday update on the subject.
On this subject, The New York Times writes Trump has gambled his presidency with this war. In just over a year since taking office, Trump has authorized military action in seven nations, even after he repeatedly promised American voters that he would end, not start, wars, NYT notes. During his inaugural address, he further said his “proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker.” And though Trump has portrayed the operation as a resounding success, he and his administration have struggled to provide a clear endgame for the military campaign. Democrats have seized on the strikes to paint Trump as more focused in foreign intervention than addressing Americans’ economic worries at home. A CNN poll found 59 percent of Americans disapprove of Mr. Trump’s decision to launch strikes against Iran, and Reuters-Ipsos poll found that only 27 percent of Americans approve of the military campaign. Some of the president’s allies now privately worry that there is little political upside to the attacks on Iran and huge downsides, particularly the loss of U.S. troops and rising cost of oil.
And that brings us to the impact the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran can have on the global economy. In the most hopeful scenario for the global economy, writes The New York Times, the war ends within a few weeks, while the region continues to produce oil and gas and ships it through the Strait of Hormuz to customers around the world. Since that is not the current reality, and since the Middle East is the source of 30 percent of the world’s oil and 17 percent of its natural gas, this almost certainly triggers trouble in the world’s largest importing nations — major economies in East Asia, including China and India, and Europe. The price of natural gas in Europe has already soaring by 50 percent.
Oil’s response to the war has been muted so far, writes Bloomberg. But that is because traders are expecting a short-lived conflict. The oil market was awash with crude, and a gas glut was on its way, so there is no reasons to expect any immediate supply issues. But the longer war lasts, the greater the chances of energy prices spiking upwards.
Bloomberg also writes the European economy can probably deal with energy disruptions if they last no longer than a month. Prolonged war in the Middle East and a persistent fall in oil and gas supplies from the region could cause a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank’s chief economist has warned, writes The Financial Times.
From the Iranian perspective, Iranian deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told CNN that Iran had communicated with Gulf Arab states to shut down US bases which Tehran considers a threat. “We communicated with them: either to shut down those American bases that are constantly threatening Iran and are constantly using to offend on Iran, or we have no option just to push back,” he said. Another Iranian deputy foreign minister, Majid Takht-Revanchi, also in an interview with CNN, rejected claims that Iran attacked Saudi oil infrastructure. “We are not responsible for that. We have already been in touch with our Saudi brothers and we have talked about this issue. Iran is not responsible for the attack on the oil installations in Saudi Arabia. We have officially announced today that that was not one of the targets of the Iranian armed forces”, he said. This, 3W notes, begs the question; who did?
In the background, Israel is broadening its military operation in Lebanon, writes the Financial Times. In addition to aerial bombardments it has now also launched a ground operation on Lebanese territory. The operation is going beyond the five “strategic” points in southern Lebanon that Israeli forces have continued to occupy since the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah in 2024
Beyond the Middle East, the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has escalated again. On Friday, Pakistan declared “open war” against Afghanistan, writes The National. Islamabad has since longer said the leadership of militant group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and many of its fighters are based in Afghanistan. It added that armed insurgents seeking independence for the south-western Pakistani province of Balochistan also use Afghanistan as a safe haven. Meanwhile, the Taliban in Afghanistan are angry with Pakistan’s intelligence services for allegedly supporting insurgent groups in Afghanistan. These accusations led to fighting between the two countries in 2025. The two countries then achieved a ceasefire agreement, brokered by Qatar and Turkey in October. Since the declaration of war, Pakistan has launched a number of airstrikes across Afghanistan, writes The National separately.
Fighting has now continued for five straight days, writes Reuters.