The Coming US – Israel Alliance Attack on Iran

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In this roundup, we take a closer look at the thesis we explained yesterday, which is that the US is only using the nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva to lull Tehran into a sense of security, in preparation for a large-scale military attack.

The thesis got support from international media yesterday, as multiple prominent media suddenly started reporting about US preparations for war and US officials’ beliefs that the talks would fail.

These media reports also provided insight into the continued US alignment with Israel’s plan for Iran; and into when another US – Israel Alliance war against Iran could be launched – late February early March. But 3W speculates that if the Alliance wants to surprise Iran, it could actually attack sooner.

Furthermore, we look at:

• How the US – Israel Alliance War on Palestine is continuing below the radarscreen of most media outlets
• The absence of progress in the Ukraine peace negotiations
• The US deployment of advanced, longer range missile systems in the Philippines
• How the US is using the IMF to push China towards changing its economic policies; and how China is responding strategically

Geopolitics

Yesterday, 3W explained why we believe the US is most likely using the nuclear negotiations as a tactic to enable a devastating military attack on Iran. Shortly after we wrote this analysis, Axios was flooded with articles that argue the same. First Axios wrote that “the Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize” and that “It could begin very soon.” And, this military operation against Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month’s pinpoint operation in Venezuela. “The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks,” one Trump adviser said. US vice president JD Vance provided more insight, saying that progress was made in Tuesday’s talks, but that “certain red lines” remain. Shortly thereafter Axios wrote about “6 reasons the US and Iran are on the brink of war”. One of the 6 reasons is Israel’s pressure on Trump to attack, while Axios also notes that the relatively low oil prices at present create a “strategic opportunity” to do so. The last point 3W disagrees with, as Iran has the ability to severely disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East – through closing the Strait of Hormuz, but also attacking the physical export and production locations. Against this backdrop, Axios then wrote that Trump met his main Iran advisors on Wednesday, Witkoff, Kushner and Rubio – the same people who Netanyahu had a private meeting with during his trip to Washington DC last week, 3W notes. The explained to Trump that Iran is now to make an official deal proposal to the US, before the end of February. Around that time Rubio will visit Israel.

In the 3W view, this most likely means the following. Firstly, contrary to media speculation, the US has not moved away from the Israeli demands regarding Iran. It continues to insist that Iran not only end its nuclear program comprehensively, but also its ballistic missile program, such that it becomes defenseless. Since these demands are unacceptable to Iran, the current talks are designed to lull Iran into a sense of security, while the US – Israel Alliance prepares its military forces for a longer and broader attack on Iran. Rubio will be in Israel at the time Iran is to submit its nuclear deal proposal, such that the actual can then be launched in a simultaneous manner. Lastly, we note it is not impossible that the Alliance attacks before Iran submits its deal proposal, to heighten the element of surprise, on the pretext that the negotiations were not going anywhere and that it was known already that Iran would submit an insufficient proposal.

The New York Times has an updated overview of where US military are now strategically located around Iran. The National explains how the next Alliance attack on Iran might actually play out.

As to Palestine, according to the United Nations, Gaza is still not at peace, while conditions in the occupied West Bank are deteriorating rapidly, and Israeli measures are steadily creating a “de facto annexation”, writes The National. Rosemary DiCarlo, undersecretary general for political and peacebuilding affairs, told the UN Security Council Israeli military strikes in recent weeks had intensified across Gaza, hitting densely populated areas and killing dozens of Palestinians, including women and children. In the West Bank, DiCarlo said, Israeli operations have included widespread raids, home takeovers, mass detentions, movement restrictions and repeated displacement of Palestinian families.

Meanwhile, according to British medical journal The Lancet, the number of “violent deaths” in Gaza is likely to be 50% higher than the number reported by the Gazan Ministry of Health, writes The National. The Lancet report recorded 75,200 violent deaths as of early last year at a time when the ministry’s figure was 49,090. The Lancet also says this number is likely to be an underestimation as there are thousands of people still missing, likely buried under rubble. For clarity, direct deaths is measured by the bodies retrieved and identified following a strike by the US – Israel Alliance. It does not include indirect deaths, i.e. injured people who die later from wounds sustained in an attack, or people who die due to starvation or the destruction of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure.

As to Ukraine, the negotiations in Geneva are going nowhere, writes The National.  The New York Times adds that behind the scenes, negotiators have been trying to find a compromise on one of the biggest obstacles to a peace deal: control of territory in eastern Ukraine. Russia has demanded that Ukraine hand over the land it controls in the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war. Ukraine has refused to withdraw unilaterally, saying that ceding land would embolden Russia to attack again, in Ukraine or elsewhere. In negotiations over recent weeks, officials have discussed the idea of forming a demilitarized zone controlled by neither army.

As to Taiwan, the US will deploy more missile systems to the Philippines, writes Bloomberg. The US deployed the so-called Typhon missile system to the Philippines in 2024 – under the cover of a training exercise, 3W notes, only to leave the system behind once the training was over. The Typhon can fire multipurpose rockets, including Tomahawk cruise missiles that have a range long enough to hit large portions of China. In 2025, the US sent its NMESIS anti-ship missile system to the Southeast Asian nation during friendly annual military drills in northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands, areas that are near Taiwan. Asked whether these systems were still present, officials from the Philippines refused to answer. Both Washington and Manila have now formally committed to “continue and work to increase deployments of US cutting-edge missile and unmanned systems to the Philippines,” according to a joint statement on Tuesday, a move that is likely to anger China as it realizes the US – Philippine military coordination is directed at it.

Macroeconomics

In a statement released Wednesday alongside the Washington-based lender’s annual review of China’s economy, known as an Article IV consultation, the IMF said China to needs move away from its export-led economic growth model, towards a domestic consumption based model, writes Bloomberg. The IMF says China’s large current-account surplus has caused “adverse spillovers to trading partners.” The IMF “called for a comprehensive and more forceful response that combines increased macroeconomic policy support with structural reforms.” China’s representative on the IMF’s executive board, Zhengxin Zhang, took issue with the criticism, saying in a separate statement that China’s 2025 export growth “was primarily driven by its competitiveness and innovation capacity,” along with front-loading caused by Washington’s trade policy. In the 3W view, China is now where Japan was in the 1980s. Its economic model has proven far superior to that promoted by the US. Its rate of technology development is faster and its companies are more competitive, leading to massive success for Chinese products all over the world. Just as Japan in the 80s, China is now being pushed to adopt economic policies promoted by the US.

China is not siting back idly as the US tries to isolate it economically. Beijing is exploiting the uncertainty created by Trump to try to stitch China’s vast manufacturing base into the world’s biggest economic blocs, including the European Union, Gulf States and a trans-Pacific trade pact, a Reuters examination found. A Reuters review of 100 Chinese-language articles by state-backed trade scholars written since 2017 reveals a systematic push by China’s policy advisers to reverse-engineer U.S. trade policy and neutralize Washington’s containment strategy. The response includes accelerating efforts to clinch some 20 trade deals in total, and promoting the concept of open trade at international events.