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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), e our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the latest developments in the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran.
3W notices that the goalposts have been changed by Israel. It is no longer the nuclear subject that is the main concern. It is now ballistic missiles. We note that this means that even if Iran and the US are able to agree on a nuclear deal, Israel will keep pushing the US to abandon the deal because it fears a strong and independent Iran. It will be JPCOA all over again.
This brings us to the point we have been make regularly over the past weeks in our coverage of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, which is that Iran should not think that diplomacy offers a way out of its current predicament. Only raw power will. Israel will continue to push the US to attack Iran, militarily and economically, until Iran’s potential for being a strong nation is destroyed. Diplomacy is only a cover for the plans that are being made in Tel Aviv to achieve this real objective. And Israel will only back down from this when it is forced to back down. This means that Iran should, in the 3W view, not only accelerate its ballistic missile program, but also develop nuclear weapons, as these are the ultimate deterrent, without which Iran will continue to be pushed and pressured by the Alliance until it eventually breaks.
Furthermore, we look at:
- Why Russia has lost complete trust in the US
- Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s big election win, which will enable her to remilitarize Japan in order to make it a more valuable US asset in the competition with China
- European carmaker Stellantis announced 22.2 billion euros ($26.5 billion) write down of its EV business; which in the 3W view is further evident that the established carmakers in Europe and the US are unable to compete with China’s newcomers
Geopolitics
Iran thinks progress is being made in the negotiations with the US over the nuclear subject. Ali Larijani, a former Iranian Parliament speaker who now serves as the secretary to the country’s Supreme National Security Council, will be traveling to Oman to join the negotiations, writes The Associated Press. According to Reuters, Iran will offer to dilute its enriched uranium, if all sanctions are lifted. The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, Mohammad Eslami, said on Monday: “The possibility of diluting 60% enriched uranium… depends on whether, in return, all sanctions are lifted or not”. The US has however demanded Iran relinquish its stockpile – estimated last year by the UN nuclear agency at more than 440 kg – of uranium enriched to up to 60% fissile purity, a small step away from the 90% that is considered weapons grade.
But, on Sunday, 3W warned that the Netanyahu trip to Washington DC this week means he will be pushing the US to launch a war against Iran. This assessment has been confirmed by The Jerusalem Post, which writes that Israeli defense officials are telling their US counterparts that Iran’s ballistic missile program represents an existential threat, and that Israel is prepared to act unilaterally against it if necessary. One defense official described the current moment as a “historic opportunity” to deliver a significant blow to Iran’s missile infrastructure and neutralize active threats to Israel and neighbouring states.
Iran should, in the 3W view, not only accelerate its ballistic missile program, but also develop nuclear weapons, as these are the ultimate deterrent, without which Iran will continue to be pushed and pressured by the Alliance until it eventually breaks
Also on Sunday 3W speculated that most likely Israel has noticed that Trump is backtracking on Iran – which we believe is most likely due to Iran’s firm stance regarding what it sees as it national sovereign rights. And Trump always backs off when his bullying style doesn’t immediately impress his opponent. This assessment was also confirmed by The Jerusalem Post, which writes that concerns were raised by several Israel officials that US president Trump may adopt a limited strike model which, they fear, could leave Iran’s critical capabilities intact. “The worry is he might choose a few targets, declare success, and leave Israel to deal with the fallout, just like with the Houthis,” another Israeli military official said.
When combining all this information, 3W notices that the goalposts have been changed by Israel. It is no longer the nuclear subject that is the main concern. It is now ballistic missiles. This means that even if Iran and the US are able to agree on a nuclear deal, Israel will keep pushing the US to abandon the deal because it fears a strong and independent Iran. It will be JPCOA all over again. And this brings us to the point we have been make regularly over the past weeks in our coverage of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, which is that Iran should not think that diplomacy offers a way out of its current predicament. Only raw power will. Israel will continue to push the US to attack Iran, militarily and economically, until Iran’s potential for being a strong independent nation is destroyed. Diplomacy is only a cover for the plans that are being made in Tel Aviv to achieve this real objective. And Israel will only back down from this when it is forced to back down. This means that Iran should, in the 3W view, not only accelerate its ballistic missile program, but also develop nuclear weapons, as these are the ultimate deterrent, without which Iran will continue to be pushed and pressured by the Alliance until it eventually breaks.
even if Iran and the US are able to agree on a nuclear deal, Israel will keep pushing the US to abandon the deal because it fears a strong and independent Iran
As to Ukraine, Anadolu Ajansi from Turkiye writes that Russia has lost trust in the US efforts to broker a peace agreement for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday that the US is no longer ready to implement its own proposal to end the conflict in Ukraine, which was presented to Russia during presidential-level talks in Anchorage, Alaska, in August 2025. Despite the dialogue and agreements reached at the Anchorage meeting, the American side continues its policy of containment and pressure on Russia, Lavrov said in an interview. “Besides the fact that they supposedly proposed something regarding Ukraine and we were ready, and now they are not ready, we also do not see any bright future in the economic sphere,” Lavrov said. The top diplomat said Washington imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil after what he described as “constructive talks,” and accused the US of waging a “war” against tankers on the high seas. Other measures, he said, include pressure on partners such as India to avoid purchasing Russian energy. Lavrov also said that the US is “deliberately” using Ukraine to pursue economic dominance and control over global energy routes using methods unacceptable to Russia. In the 3W assessment, Russia never had real trust in the US. It only went along with the US proposed negotiations to not be seen as an obstacle to peace, while it knew that what the US was trying to achieve, and how it was trying to achieve this, was not conducive to a negotiated settlement of the conflict. This is the first time, however, that Russia has formally stated what it has since the start of the Ukraine war believed.
As to Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s big election win, with a two-thirds supermajority in the Japanese parliament, enables her to take her country in a new direction, writes The Associated Press. Takaichi has pledged to remilitarize Japan, lift a ban on weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s postwar pacifist principles. This is all closely aligned with the US, notes AP, and is connected to a promise Takaichi earlier made to US president Trump. As such, Japan’s remilitarization will be directed towards China.
Other
European carmaker Stellantis announced 22.2 billion euros ($26.5 billion) of charges last Friday as it scales back its electric-vehicle ambitions, writes Reuters. Stellantis had aimed for fully electric cars to make up 100% of its European sales and 50% of US sales by 2030.
Industrywide, fully electric vehicles accounted for 19.5% of European sales last year, up nearly 30% but well short of expectations. They made up just 7.7% of US new car sales. In response, Stellantis decided to refocus on conventional combustion engine technology and hybrids, rather than EVs. Earlier US carmakers Ford and General Motors made similar moves, pivoting away from their electrification strategy. 3W notes that when Ford announced it pivot away from EVs, we wrote that while this was presented as an outcome of a “disappointing EV market”, in reality it is more about the established carmakers inability to make EVs that appeal to customers. After all, China’s newcomers are having no issue rapidly growing their sales of EV around the world.