Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran.
The US and Iran met in Oman, for talks about what to talk about. The US demands that Iran ends its nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, and its support for groups across the Middle East. Iran is only open to talking about its nuclear program.
There are indications the US is adjusting its position. One evidence is the fact that the Iranians insisted on meeting in Oman, rather than Turkiye, and to talk about what to talk about, rather than to talk about the US demands; which the US in the end agreed to. This 3W notes, indicates Iran is in a stronger position than the US is at present.
Israel appears to see things the same way, as there will now be an emergency meeting between Trump and Netanyahu on Washington DC. His objective will be to keep the US elites firmly on board with the Tel Aviv developed “Iran Plan” that forms the basis for the US’s current position on Iran.
As to what is likely to happen next, 3W notes that of the past two and a half years are a guide, the US will cave and the US president will adopt the Netanyahu position wholeheartedly. That will block diplomatic progress and the US will be pushed by Israel to launch an attack on Iran – one that US military leaders undoubtedly realize can not end with an Alliance victory.
Furthermore, we look at:
- Why the reopening of the Rafah border crossing has turned out to be a farce; predictably, 3W adds
- The current situation in Ukraine; where it was again proven that a negotiated settlement is unachievable, considering the current positions of Ukraine and Russia
- How and why the US is working to reshape the global oil market
Geopolitics
US president Trump said on Friday that the US and Iran had “very good talks” in Oman on Friday, writes Axios. The talks in Muscat between Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and the US president’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner lasted close to eight hours, with the Omani foreign minister mediating between the two sides. The negotiations started with each side meeting separately with the Omani foreign minister. But later in the day, Witkoff and Kushner held direct talks with Araghchi. According to Trump, Iran wants a deal “very badly” and is willing to make big compromises on its negotiating position, because it is afraid of the US “armada” on its shores. Similar to last Thursday, 3W says this could be the case, but we doubt it. The Iranian insistence that the current talks take place in Oman rather than in Turkey, in our view indicates the Iranians are not allowing the US to dominate the diplomatic proceedings. The US acquiescence in our view indicates the weakness of the US position – as it probably knows its “conventional navy” is highly vulnerable to Iranian hypersonic rockets and drones.
After the meeting, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi repeated the Iranian position, writes Reuters. Firstly, it is only open to discuss the nuclear subject. Secondly, it will strike US bases across the Middle East if it is attacked. 3W notes that these statements, after the meeting, indicate Iranian confidence, probably for the reasons we described above.
Next, the US and Iran will continue talking in Oman throughout the coming week, writes The National. “The atmosphere was positive, and it was a good start,” said Iran’s Araghchi. He said there was a “near-consensus” on continuing talks, but the timing and format had yet to be decided. This is also what 3W understands about the Oman talks, from a variety of sources. They are not really about a deal. They are about agreeing on what to talk about. The US pushing its maximalist demands on a variety of subjects, Iran arguing it should only be about its nuclear program. The US seems to be moving over to the Iranian side on this.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with US president Donald Trump in Washington on Wednesday to discuss Iran, writes The Associated Press. 3W notes this provides further evidence that the US and Israel are in a “symbiotic relationship”. One never talks to just one of them, because they do Middle Eastern policy together. Israel will push the US to maintain the demand that Iran ends its nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, and its support for groups across the Middle East, writes AP. Which is exactly what the US has been demanding from Iran so far, notes 3W, which provides insight into who is the “leading thinker” in the US – Israel Alliance. If we connect this information with the information about the talks in Oman, at 3W we are left with the impression this is a panic move by the Israeli’s. They are responding to how the negotiations are going, probably realizing the US is developing second thoughts on the whole “let’s take out Iran!” idea that Israel has been pushing in Washington and that lies at the core of the current US – Israeli manoeuvring – i.e. the sabotage of the Iranian economy via currency depreciation late last year, then the violent protests early this year, and now the build-up of military forces with the threat of attack. Netanyahu’s objective will be to manage the Trump crew and keep them fully on board with the “Iran Plan” developed in Tel Aviv.
As to what is likely to happen next, 3W notes that if the past two and a half years are a guide, the US will cave and the US president will adopt the Netanyahu position wholeheartedly. That will block diplomatic progress and the US will be pushed by Israel to launch an attack on Iran – one that US military leaders undoubtedly realize can not end with an Alliance victory.
The Iranian insistence that the current talks take place in Oman rather than in Turkey, in our view indicates the Iranians are not allowing the US to dominate the diplomatic proceedings.
As the Gaza, predictably, the reopening of the Rafah border crossing has turned out to be a farce, writes The Associated Press. Israel is not allowing people through, and those that do get clearance are treated like animals in cages at Israeli checkpoints inside Gaza – they are handcuffed, blindfolded, put into stress positions for hours, and put under pressure to become Israeli collaborators. UN human rights officials confirmed these assessments by the people who suffered them, noting a “consistent pattern of ill-treatment, abuse and humiliation by Israeli military forces”. And as if that isn’t bad enough, on Friday and Saturday the crossing was officially closed again.
As to Ukraine, with talks in Abu Dhabi ongoing, Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, writes Reuters. It is targeting electricity generation and distribution. Ukraine’s energy sector is now crumbling under the Russian strikes, accumulated wartime damage and bitterly cold winter weather. In the 3W view, this indicates that Russia does not expect a negotiated settlement to the war. It expects the war will go on until it achieves a decisive victory.
The New York Times confirms the talks have made little headway. The trilateral negotiations produced few concrete results last week, it says. The key issue remains that Ukraine demands security guarantees from the US and Europe. For Russia this is unacceptable, as it would entail western forces on the ground in Ukraine. And that is exactly why Russia launched its war in 2022. For Russia only a neutral Ukraine is acceptable. As long as Ukraine does not accept that, Russia will continue the war.
Energy
The US is working to reshape the global oil market, writes Bloomberg. 3W previously discussed that the US’s policies regarding Iran, Venezuela and also Nigeria are at least partially influenced by a desire to bring global production of the two key commodities for which China continues to be dependent on imports, that is crude oil and natural gas, under US control. In parallel, the US government is backing ExxonMobil and Chevron as they negotiate new deals in countries such as Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The US backing is giving the US oil majors a competitive edge over European oil majors, Bloomberg notes. As a result, while over recent years the US majors preferred to grow their shale businesses in the US, helping America overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest producer in 2018, today, with international governments keen to win over Trump, gain implicit US security guarantees and avoid tariffs, US oil executives sense an opportunity for international growth that hasn’t existed since the mid-2000s. The biggest prizes are the vast oil reserves within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the OPEC+ group. But the US oil majors are also seeing opportunities in Europe, Africa, Central Asia and the Caribbean.