Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at what appears to be preparation for another US – Israel Alliance attack on Iran.
Military hardware has been gathered in the region, and a narrative to justify an attack is being pushed – “Iran is weak but rearming and restarting its nuclear weapons program”. Meanwhile, commercial airlines have been told to divert flights away from the region, which gives the impression a next Alliance strike is imminent. In the 3W view what is going on is an orchestrated effort to strike fear in the hearts of the Iranian leadership, to incentivise it to submit to Alliance demands during talks which we expect are taking place behind the scenes.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The reopening of the Rafah border crossing that connect Gaza and Egypt; which the only Palestinian member of the US – Israel Alliance’s “executive committee” thinks is a good thing; while the Alliance’s intention behind the move is to accelerate the depopulation of Gaza
- Israel’s destruction of the UNWRA headquarters in Jerusalem
- The US’s betrayal of its “Kurdish allies” in Syria, to move forward its current plans for the Middle East region
- The US victory in Greenland, as the Europeans see no other response to his bullying than submitting
Geopolitics
All signs indicate a US – Israel Alliance attack on the country is imminent. US President Trump last week said an “armada” of American warships was heading towards the Middle East, writes The National. The armada, which has since arrived, includes the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and several guided-missile destroyers, alongside additional air defence systems, to protect American bases from any Iranian retaliation in case of an attack. The UK government said on Friday that it too had sent additional military resources, namely a squadron of Typhoon jets to Al Udeid airbase, near Doha in Qatar, writes The National.
The US last week also began to construct the narrative that could justify a military attack on Iran. The Iranian government is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades but it wants to rebuild its military forces and may still try to obtain a nuclear weapon, the Pentagon said on Friday in the latest version of its “Defence Strategy”, writes The National.
Since then, most of the world’s major airlines has halted flights to destinations across the Middle East, writes The National. 3W notes this was done in a coordinated manner, meaning someone somewhere informed them of what they were expected to do.
Any new Alliance strike on Iranian territory will be considered an act of “all-out war”, the country’s leadership says, writes The National. “This time, we take any attack – limited, unlimited, surgical, kinetic, whatever they call it – as an all-out war against us, and we will respond the hardest way possible,” an Iranian UN official told a group of reporters in New York. Around the same time, the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, warned that his force is “more ready than ever, finger on the trigger,” writes The Associated Press. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard and dear Iran stand more ready than ever, finger on the trigger, to execute the orders and directives of the Commander-in-Chief,” general Mohammad Pakpour said.
But the Alliance is manoeuvring to limit Iran’s ability to fight back. The US told the Iraqi government and leaders of its local shi’ite community that if they do not crack down on the Iranian influence in their country, the US will withhold Iraq’s oil revenues, which are held by the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, writes Reuters. Following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US forced the Iraqi government to hold the bulk of the proceeds from its oil export sales in an account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This gives the US effective control over Iraq’s finances. Bloomberg has a deepdive on the elite political circles of contemporary Iraq, which makes clear they are likely to accept US demands even without there being the threat of theft of their money – that just adds to the incentives.
3W notes the Iran situation is probably the most telegraphed “surprise attack” in history. This, in our view, can be explained in two ways. Either incompetence on the part of the Alliance, as it is not ready enough to attack but at the same time too ready to hide its preparations; or it means that behind the scenes talks are underway between the Alliance and Iran, in which case this public display of preparations for a military attack is designed to increase the Alliance’s leverage in these talks. We expect it to be the latter.
the Iran situation is probably the most telegraphed “surprise attack” in history. This, in our view, can be explained in two ways. Either incompetence on the part of the Alliance, as it is not ready enough to attack but at the same time too ready to hide its preparations; or it means that behind the scenes talks are underway between the Alliance and Iran, in which case this public display of preparations for a military attack is designed to increase the Alliance’s leverage in these talks.
As to Palestine, Israeli authorities last week demolished buildings and other structures at the headquarters of UNWRA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees in occupied East Jerusalem, writes The National. Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, called the move “a new level of open and deliberate defiance of international law” by Israel. On X Lazzarini said: “A lost moral compass opens a barbaric new era: after Israeli officials compete to take credit for the storming and destruction of a United Nations compound in occupied East Jerusalem, others call for the annihilation of an entire community of UNRWA staff.” The destruction of UNRWA’s compound is the latest action that Israel has taken against the organisation since the outbreak of the Gaza war. In the 3W view, the US – Israeli Alliance policy against UNWRA should not be underestimated. UNWRA is designed to support the Palestinians who became refugees due to the establishment of Israel. As such, for those who aspire to a Palestine without Palestinians, it is an obstacle that needs to be removed – even though it is a UN agency. As such, the Alliance’s policies against UNWRA highlight its genocidal intent in Palestine, as well as its complete disregard for, and even animosity toward, international rules, norms and morals.
As to Gaza, the only Palestinian member of the US – Israel Alliance’s “executive committee” that will govern Gaza, Ali Shaath, announced last week that Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt will reopen this week, writes Reuters. 3W notes that of course Shaath presented this as a great achievement and an important step forward for the people of Gaza, but Reuters writes separately that what the Alliance is really trying to achieve is depopulation of Gaza. Gazans will be allowed to leave the strip via Rafah, but are to be blocked when trying to return.
As to Syria, as The Geopolity analysed in detail last week, Syria’s Kurds are getting the Ukraine treatment. Fighting is raging in the Kurdish north-eastern regions of the country. The US-linked Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had set up a de facto autonomous region there, under US guidance and support (The Financial Times has a background on the relationship between the US and the Kurds of Syria), and the central Syrian government, supported by Turkey, is now trying to bring the are back under its control, writes The National. The Kurdish group agreed to cede control of Deir Ezzor and Raqqa provinces to the Syrian government last week, after the Syrian army’s lightning offensive into the two oil-rich provinces. After Deir Ezzor and Raqqa, convoys of Syrian forces were sent to Hasakah. The Kurdish civilian institutions are to be integrated into Syria’s central government. The National writes separately that Syrian president Al Sharaa has been in contact with the US White House throughout the current operation, which in the 3W indicates alignment between the two parties. For the US, the Kurds have played the role it needed them to play during the Arab Spring and its aftermath. Now, the US plans for the Middle East require a unified Syria. Nevertheless, US senator Lindsy Graham called for sanctions to be reimposed on Syria over the operation, which in the 3W view indicates his loyalty to Israel, which does not want to see a unified Syria, over and above his loyalty to the US. The Kurds appear to have understood the writing is on the wall, and have accepted the Syrian government’s ceasefire proposal, to enable the integration process to proceed without shots being fired, writes The Associated Press.
As to Greenland, US president Trump says his time in Davos at the World Economic Forum was “incredible”, and that a “deal” over Greenland has been reached which will be “amazing” for the US, writes Sky News. Trump said that under the deal, the US “gets everything we want at no cost” and that a “piece” of his planned “Golden Dome” missile defence system would be placed on Greenland, writes BBC. When asked if this was an actual “acquisition”, he answered, “It’s total access. There’s no end, there’s no time limit.” According to the New York Times, the deal includes an agreement that the US will have “sovereignty” over parts of Greenland, rather than all of it. The concept compares to the United Kingdom’s bases in Cyprus, which are regarded as British territory. In response to this agreement, Trump withdrew his threat of additional tariffs for European allies that had resisted his insistence on owning Greenland, and said he would not use force to assert American ownership.