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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the US announced “executive committee” that will govern Gaza as of the second phase of the ceasefire.
The composition of this committee makes very clear that it is a purely colonial project, 3W notes. The interests of the Palestinians really do not matter. They are not even represented. The security element of the Alliance plan for Gaza will be managed by the committee with Israel’s interests in mind, a task that is likely to fall in the lap of committee members US secretary of state Rubio and US general Jeffers. But also the economic element of the Gaza ceasefire, the rebuilding following the complete destruction of the area, will be done only for the benefit of Israel, since this task should be expected to be handled by the committee members Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law, real estate investor, and ardent Zionist), US hedge fund billionaire Rowan (ardent Zionist) and Israeli billionaire banker Gabay.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The US plan to establish an alternative to the United Nations, membership in which will cost $1 billion
- The return of calm in Iran, how this transpired, and why the US in the end did not attack Iran in support of the protests
- The increased US pressure on Europe, to force it to hand over Denmark
- China’s economic growth in the 4th quarter of 2025, which enabled the country to achieve its target of 5% GDP growth for the full year
- Why India’s exports to the US have kept up, despite the Trump tariffs
- China and Russia’s “commanding lead” in the nuclear energy industry globally
Geopolitics
As to Gaza, for the second phase of the ceasefire the US this week announced the members of the “executive committee” of the new government for the strip, writes The Associated Press. The executive committee will govern the strip for the foreseeable future and is to be overseen by a “Board of Peace”, the members of which haven’t been announced yet. The most important of the announced members of the executive committee are US secretary of state Marco Rubio; US special envoy Steve Witkoff, ardent Zionist and close ally of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu; Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, similarly ardent Zionist and close ally of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu; former British prime minister Tony Blair, who has been an advisor to the Israeli government since the War n Gaza was launched, writes Ha’aretz; US major general Jasper Jeffers, who has so far been overseeing the US military element of the US – Israeli Alliance plan for the New Levant. Also on the committee is Marc Rowan, a hedge fund manager and ardent Zionist; Yakir Gabay, an Israeli billionaire businessman. The only Palestinian on the committee is Ali Shaath, whose job it will be to inform the Palestinians of what the committee has decided. 3W notes that the composition of this committee makes very clear that it is a purely colonial project. The interests of the Palestinians really do not matter. They are not even represented. As such the announcement of this committee represents a new phase in the European colonial project that is Israel, which started when the British demanded their Mandate over Palestine now 100 years ago.
Nevertheless, Israel is not completely satisfied, writes The Associated Press. It wants its own politicians on the committee as well, and objects to the presence of the committee of representatives from the countries that managed Hamas during the ceasefire negotiations, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and the UAE. Axios adds that there is some tension between the US and Israel on the issue. In the 3W assessment this Israeli positioning is more for show, a negotiation tactic, than a representation of a real policy position. It is abundantly clear that the committee is designed to further the US – Israel Alliance plan for Gaza. And, Israel has so far had no difficulty in managing the US-side of the Alliance, winning it over to the visions and plans developed in Tel Aviv. The two “economic experts” on the committee, one Jewish American Zionist and another an Israeli banker, further indicates that not only the security element of the Alliance plan for Gaza will be managed with Israel’s interests in mind (primarily by Rubio and Jeffers), but also the economic element (primarily by Kushner, Rowan and Gabay). This committee should be expected to give Israel whatever it wants, therefore. The absence of Israeli politicians therefore makes sense, as it gives the impression the committee will be an independent intermediary, just and fair. Similarly, the presence of representatives from Muslim countries in the Middle East makes sense, although it is clear from the outset these people will have no real influence. They did not influence the ceasefire negotiations, only pushed Hamas to accept the proposals developed in Tel Aviv, which were then sent to Hamas from Washington DC. So why would things now suddenly be different? No doubt the Israeli’s realize all this very well. So why push back? Well, why not? At worst, your pushback is ignored. But more likely, the US will give you some further concessions. Hence the 3W assessment this pushback by Israel is just a negotiation tactic.
Meanwhile, the members of the Board of Peace are still to be announced, but US president Trump has demanded that countries that want a permanent spot on this Board pay at least $1 billion, writes Bloomberg. President Trump would serve as its inaugural chairman and would decide on who is invited to be members. Decisions would be taken by a majority, with each member state present getting one vote, but all would be subject to the chairman’s approval. The money raised is to be used directly to accomplish the Board of Peace’s mandate to rebuild Gaza, Bloomberg says. But, 3W notes, based on everything the US – Israel Alliance has said and done over the past 3 years, it is essentially certain that the decisions as to how to spend the money, on what, where, and who to contract for the work, will most certainly be in the interest of the US – Israel Alliance and no one else. The proposal that Trump would also have the power to remove a member from the Board, subject to a veto by a two-thirds majority of member states, is in our 3W view specifically designed to ensure this. You can join the Board, but you cannot reject what the US – Israel Alliance puts forward, or you will be removed and lose your billion.
Beyond Gaza, its Board of Peace is eventually to become a rival to the United Nations, writes The Financial Times. The text of its charter, which does not mention Gaza but stresses the need for a “more nimble and effective international peace-building body”, suggests its scope would be far broader, FT says. “The Board of Peace is an international organisation that seeks to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict,” the charter says. “Durable peace requires pragmatic judgment, common sense solutions, and the courage to depart from approaches and institutions that have too often failed.”
As to Iran, calm appears to have been restored, but at a significant cost of life. The shadowy US-based Iranian Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) on Saturday said the unrest claimed 3,090 lives, writes BBC, and 3,919 by Sunday, writes The Associated Press. As we explained last week, 3W does not have trust in the HRANA, but that the unrest was significant is beyond doubt. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday gave a public address on Saturday and blamed the US for the deaths, writes Reuters. Khamenei said “several thousand deaths” had happened during the nationwide protests, which are Iran’s worst unrest in years. He accused Iran’s longtime enemies the U.S. and Israel of organising the violence. “Those linked to Israel and the U.S. caused massive damage and killed several thousand,” he said, adding that they started fires, destroyed public property and incited chaos. They “committed crimes and a grave slander,” he said. 3W notes that the accusation appears to be based on facts. Reuters writes that Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu said in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio that Israel had operatives “on the ground” in Iran, while earlier Mike Pompeo tweeted Mossad agents were “walking besides” the protestors.
For a while US president Trump promised support for the protestors, but in the end, no help came. In the end, did not act. It was all because of insufficient military hardware in the region, warnings from Israel that it could not defend itself against an Iranian counterstrike, concern among top aides about the implications and effectiveness of the strike options, and secret backchannel talks with the Iranians, writes Axios. 3W speculates that a big part in the decision was the fact that the protests did not reach the “critical mass” the US – Israel Alliance was hoping for, and no significant “cracks” appeared in the pillars of power of the Iranian state. This is also the assessment of The National, who had a reported inside Iran during the protest, who noted the enthusiasm of the Iranians for the protests quickly faded when their demand for better living conditions was transformed by the protest organizers into a call for “regime change” and a return of the monarchy. The Financial Times recorded testimonies from the scenes of the unrest which note that agitators mingled with genuine protesters. Clashes between the agitators and police then claimed the lives not just of unarmed citizens who formed part of the leaderless crowds, but also of well-equipped security personnel. “There were groups of men in black clothes, agile and quick,” said one demonstrator in Tehran. “They would set one dustbin on fire and then quickly move to the next target.” Another witness in western Tehran told the FT he saw about a dozen fit men, “looking like commandos”, dressed in similar black clothing, running through the area and calling on people to leave their homes and join the protests. “They were definitely organised, but I don’t know who was behind them,” he said.
Then on Greenland, US president Trump on Saturday announced he would impose a 10% tariff on imports from eight NATO allies — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom — until a deal is reached for the U.S. to purchase Greenland, writes Axios. The eight NATO allies named by Trump have expressed solidarity with Greenland in the face of U.S. threats, and recently deployed a small contingent of troops to the island for a reconnaissance mission.
French President Emmanuel Macron will request the activation of the European Union’s anti-coercion instrument in response to the US move, writes Bloomberg. While the EU’s anti-coercion instrument has never been used, it was designed primarily as a deterrent, and if needed, to respond to deliberate coercive actions from third countries that use trade measures as a means to pressure the policy choices of the EU or its members. Those measures could include tariffs, new taxes on tech companies or targeted curbs on investments in the EU. They could also involve limiting access to certain parts of the EU market or restricting firms from bidding for public contracts in Europe. Reuters writes that EU leaders are set to discuss options at an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday, and The Financial Times writes they are considering hitting the US with €93bn worth of tariffs or restricting American companies from the bloc’s market. As to how this is likely to develop, 3W notes it depends on how the EU actually responds. We note that when Trump announced his original tariffs on the EU, there were also very tough words coming out of Brussels and the European capitals. In the end, however, these “tough talkers” submitted completely to all US demands.
Macroeconomics
China’s economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of last year but was enough to meet the government’s annual target of “around 5%,” according to official figures, as strong exports offset weak investment and consumption, writes Nikkei Asia. Gross domestic product grew 4.5% on the year in the October-December term, the country’s statistics agency said Monday, compared to 4.8% in the previous quarter. Growth was driven by exports, which jumped 5.5% last year in dollar terms and outpaced flat imports, generating a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion.
Despite facing the highest US tariffs in all of Asia, India’s exports to its largest trade destination have fallen just 0.97% in the period it has been under those restrictions, writes Nikkei Asia. The exports have likely held up due to a mix of frontloading of exports, and continued demand for electronics exports and other non-tariffed products. In tariffed sectors, cost sharing and/or absorption of tariff costs by producers is likely to have prevented a sharp decline in volumes.
Energy
While the US and EU talk about restarting their nuclear industries, China and Russia are establishing dominant positions in the global nuclear power market, accounting for 90% of the atomic plants undertaken last year, writes Nikkei Asia. Of the 63 nuclear power plants that began construction worldwide since 2016, Chinese and Russian-made plants accounted for over 90%. The only nuclear power plants not built by China or Russia were five in South Korea and the UK. In China approximately 60 nuclear power plants in operation, including those undergoing repairs, with a generating capacity of approximately 64 gigawatts. Meanwhile, Russia is focusing on exports to emerging countries. Over the past decade, construction of 19 Russian-made nuclear power plants has begun overseas. State-owned nuclear power company Rosatom is building them in Turkey, Bangladesh and other countries. In November, a pressure vessel was installed at Egypt’s El Dabaa nuclear power plant.
Technology
Huawei Technologies, Baidu and other Chinese companies have made China the global leader in patents for physical artificial intelligence that is used in humanoid robots, cars and other machines, writes Nikkei Asia. Although the Chinese companies lagged behind US competitors like Intel, Nvidia and Alphabet in terms of patent quality, the analysis revealed that Huawei is approaching the level of its US counterparts.
