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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the US decision to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a “terrorist organization”.
The US is targeting the MB branches of Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan with its move, accusing them of providing material support to Hezbollah and Hamas. This, 3W notes, makes clear that the move is part of the US – Israel Alliance plan for the Middle East region.
From a material perspective, however, the influence of MB is limited – it is not a country with an army, after all. However, the move does create a big problem for some specific countries, Qatar and Turkey, as these have politically aligned with MB (for pragmatic reasons not ideology).
The US – Israel Alliance now has a stick with which is can hit these countries, i.e. force them into policies that align with the Alliance, and if they refuse, force “regime change” upon them.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The latest developments regarding the protests in Iran, which Trump has now promised to support while his team met with the son of Iran’s former Shah
- The visit by Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney to China
- China’s economic success; which, 3W notes, is so big it threatens to turn into a strategic burden for the country
- The Trump administration’s persecution of the US Federal Reserve chair
Geopolitics
As to Gaza, the US – Israel Alliance War on the territory has been so devastating that winter weather now kills Palestinians in the area on a daily basis, writes The Associated Press. Hundreds of tents and makeshift shelters were blown away or heavily damaged by winter winds yesterday, killing at least four people, said the UN humanitarian office. One baby died overnight to due to cold.
As to Iran, according to the data from US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which all major news agencies around the world seem to be relying on for their reporting, the death toll from the nationwide protests has jumped by 2,000 to over 2,500 in a matter of hours. (See for example The Associated Press report on the subject.) Yesterday 3W noted that this Agency is a US-based NGO that does not disclose who its funders are. One would expect that professional journalists do not rely on such a source. The fact that not just one major news agency, but almost all global news agencies (in addition to AP, the BBC, Euronews, Wall Street Journal, etc), report on the data released by this NGO in an unquestioning manner tells us at 3W there is a coordinated effort underway by influential organization to craft a specific narrative in the public domain. In other words, we are dealing with a psyop.
The narrative that is being pushed supports an intervention in Iran to “save the poor Iranian people” – which aligns with the US – Israel Alliance agenda for Iran. Bloomberg, for example, has an opinion piece that calls for more active “support” for the Iranian protests for a range of moral arguments – although the active follower of international relations knows that the US and Israel act on the basis of “realist” principles, i.e. purely out of self-interest.
US president Trump on Tuesday called on the Iranian people to “keep protesting” and “take over” government institutions, writes Axios. Trump also said “help is on its way,” he didn’t say what form it would take. Meanwhile, White House special envoy Steve Witkoff over the weekend met secretly with the exiled former crown prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, Axios adds. Pahlavi is attempting to position himself to step in as a “transitional” leader if the Iranian government falls. This further confirms the 3W thesis that Iran is dealing not with an organic protest movement (although there is a lot for the Iranian people to complain about) but rather a US – Israel Alliance orchestrated “colour revolution”.
Outside of these centres of conflict in the Middle East, the US on Tuesday designated the Lebanese, Egyptian and Jordanian branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organisations, writes The National. US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the Lebanese chapter’s leader, Muhammad Fawzi Taqqosh, would now be classed as a specially designated global terrorist. The Treasury Department, meanwhile, said that “Under LMB secretary general Muhammad Fawzi Taqqosh’s leadership, the group has pushed for a more formal alignment with the Hezbollah-Hamas axis”. It added that the measures against the Egyptian and Jordanian branches are a response to their “providing material support to Hamas”. 3W has a few thoughts in response to this. Firstly, underpinning the decision is the accusation of support for “Hezbollah and Hamas”. This, in our view, indicates the US decision is part of the US – Israel Alliance plan for a New Levant. It is connected to what the Alliance is doing in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria at present. Secondly, this decision puts a lot of pressure on Qatar and Turkey, whose governments have aligned and collaborated with the Muslim Brotherhood (not for ideological but pragmatic reasons, in our 3W view, but that is another subject for debate). They will now be forced to break their relations with the Brotherhood, or else the US – Israel Alliance will have a justification to push for regime change in Qatar and Turkey. That, we speculate, might actually be the bigger objective here.
As to the US – China competition, Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney is visiting Beijing at present, and during his meetings with Chinese officials they urged him to break with the US, writes The Associated Press. In parallel, China’s state media called upon the Canadian government to set a foreign policy path independent of the US — what it calls “strategic autonomy.” Carney, for his part, has focused on trade, describing the trip to China as part of a move to forge new partnerships around the world to end Canada’s economic reliance on the American market. “At a time of global trade disruption, Canada is focused on building a more competitive, sustainable and independent economy. We’re forging new partnerships around the world to transform our economy from one that has been reliant on a single trade partner, to one that is stronger and more resilient to global shocks,” Carney said in a statement announcing the trip, writes Nikkei Asia. 3W notes this is an example how adversaries can use the US’s ignoring of the soft power dimension to their advantage. Not that we believe Canada will listen, at this stage, because the US will not allow it to listen. But others, less exposed to US strong arm tactics will listen. And Canada might in the future if the US proceeds on its current path of arrogance and aggression.
On the subject, The Financial Times explains how countries could “de-risk_ from the US. One things that needs to be done is increasing trade worth others, notably India and China as the other major sources of supply and demand. Another things is decoupling from the US cpn trolled, dollar based, international trade financing system. Third is building up a military power that enables countries to manage their own security, instead of outsourcing this to the US.
Macroeconomics
China’s trade surplus surged to a record of almost $1.2 trillion in 2025, the government said Wednesday, writes The Associated Press. The 2024 trade surplus was $992 billion. In 2025 China’s exports rose 5.5% for the whole of last year to $3.77 trillion. 3W notes, this economic success is so big, it threatens to turn into a strategic burden for the country. China’s industry is so successful it can bankrupt entire nations – something that would trigger a strong backlash against it. Instead of an export driven model, China now needs to develop a win-win model where other countries structurally benefit from a trade relation with China, and not just benefit from access to cheap goods that devastate local industries. From a geopolitical perspective, therefore, 3W believes that in this case, China would be wise if it took the advice of the IMF to heart. The head of the IMF last month called for China to fix its economic imbalances and speed up its shift from reliance on exports by boosting domestic demand and investment.
The Trump administration is pushing Federal prosecutors to investigate Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over the central bank’s multibillion-dollar project to renovate its headquarters, writes Axios. There is little doubt globally this is an attempt at coercion of the Fed chair to fall in line with the political agenda of the Trump administration. The dollar dropped as bond yields and the price of gold rose in response to the news, amid worries about political interference in the Fed, writes Axios separately. As such, 3W notes this attack on a critical US institution is another example of the short-sightedness of the current US government. Clearly they are arrogant and aggressive, believing they can get away with anything, can get their way, and nothing they do in contravention of rules or norms will have consequences. Based on history, 3W doubts this is the case. Rather, this arrogance is what in the past brought great empires to their knees.