Israel struck Qatar’s capital, Doha, on Tuesday 9th September, Axios writes that the Israeli attack involved the Israeli air force and missiles. It was designed to strike and kill the Hamas political delegation in Qatar, as well as some Hamas leaders who had traveled to Doha from Turkey, as they gathered to review and discuss the latest US proposal for a ceasefire deal in Gaza.
The official response by the Trump administration is one of denial of complicity. Axios writes that the US military did spot Israeli jets flying east toward the Gulf, but that Israel only provided clarifications after the jets had fired their missiles toward Doha. At the Geopolity, we note, this all sounds highly unconvincing. For example, on Monday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff had met Ron Dermer, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s top adviser for strategic affairs Ron Dermer, Axios further writes. Yet, so the official US narrative goes, Dermer did not say anything about what was to happen. What Axios fails to mention is that the US and Israeli militaries are highly integrated, with US military personnel permanently positioned in Israel and part of the Israeli chain of command. Remember that in Gaza the US provides targeting services for Israel. For this reason it is highly unlikely that Israel could have kept Tuesday’s operation truly secret from the US. And in addition, where were the US’s sophisticated radar and air defense system at its Al Udaid airbase in Qatar? Why were these not deployed if Israel truly operated independently to attack a sovereign nation that not only has not attacked or threatened Israel, but also has close diplomatic and military relations with the US?
For these reasons the official Trump statement that he “is not thrilled” about the Israeli strike in Qatar, as reported by the Associated Press, does not come across as sincere. “This was a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me,” Trump further said. Trump also said he had directed special envoy Steve Witkoff to warn Qatar of the impending attack after learning about it and that Witkoff was quick to call Qatari officials. But the US alert was, “unfortunately, too late to stop the attack,” Trump said. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari refuted in a post on X that the Qataris were given any warning from the US, saying it came just as “the explosions from the Israeli strikes were being heard.” A later official US statement in response to the attack said that “eliminating Hamas” was a “worthy goal.” In other words, we note, the US not only completely failed to criticize the Israeli attack, even though it broke all rules and norms of the US-established “international rule-based order”, but it indirectly even applauded it
the US not only completely failed to criticize the Israeli attack, even though it broke all rules and norms of the US-established “international rule-based order”, but it indirectly even applauded it
If anything, therefore, the official US statements come across as hypocritical. Not only to us, but probably also to the Qataris, and anyone else paying attention. As to the Qataris, they released a statement describing the Israeli attack as “state terrorism”, writes The Guardian. The UAE, the first country to sign up to Trump’s Abraham Accords, described the attack as “treacherous”, writes The National, as well as a “a violation of the sovereignty of sisterly Qatar and all international laws and norms and undermines the security and stability of the region”. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, called the attack “criminal”, writes Arab News. The Kingdom warned of the dire consequences resulting from Israel’s persistence in its criminal violations and its blatant violation of the principles of international law and all international norms.
Next we look at the bigger picture. What will this event likely mean for geopolitics?
At the Geopolity we note the attack was not an intelligence operation to take out an individual, as Israel has done in the past. It was a full-blown military operation. An unprovoked attack by a nation state on another nation state, without any justification. The presence of Hamas in Qatar is not a justification as it was the US which originally requested the Qataris to house the Hamas political delegation, writes the Financial Times. We say this just to highlight the gravity of the occurrence. It is another hammer blow to the international system of norms called the “international rules-based order”.
This is a hammer blow to US credibility. In three ways even. First, because Qatar was attacked by the US – Israel Alliance, for housing Hamas, which it did on the request of the US! Second, because the attack took place when the Hamas delegation was reviewing a US ceasefire proposal. The earlier Israeli attack on Iran, in June 2025, also occurred at the height of negotiations between the US and Iran. These timings make clear that the US not only does not keep its promises (that is well known in diplomatic circles, and the US is not alone in this) but that it is also dangerous to negotiate with the US. Mortally dangerous. Henceforth every US diplomatic outreach should be considered a possible assassination plot. This will make it even more difficult for the US to achieve its geopolitical aims through diplomacy, and thus increase the incentive on it to use economic warfare and military force. Third, the US and Qatar have for decades been in an important diplomatic and military relationship, with Qatar housing the Al Udaid airbase in return for (informal) security guarantees. The attack indicates these agreements are worthless.
The US either conspired with Israel in the attack, which we believe at the geopolity, is the most likely explanation of what happened, or decided not to use Al Udaid’s advanced radar warning and air defense systems. We also note that the Saudi’s are currently looking for a NATO like security guarantee from the US at present. Should this not give them a reason to pause and reflect of the value of such a deal? The Europeans are desperate to keep the US military in Europe for now, as a form of protection. Qatar has just shown what that protection is really worth. Nothing, is the clear answer. This small act therefore has important consequences for the US approach to binding its allies to it. As a declining empire, the US is economically shaking down its allies, offering military protection in return. The Doha Attack has just shown that practically, this offer is worthless. Any independently thinking nation that is considering remaining or becoming a US ally will certainly realize this.
In summary, therefore, in the geopolity assessment the Doha Attack is a further nail in the coffin that is American Decline. What the US needs in this situation, when China is trying to break free from the US established global order, is allies that trust the US, adopt its plans, and work to execute them. This requires a set of rules to govern the relationship between the US and its allies, rules that at a minimum give the impression the US cares also about the interests of its allies. In other words, the US now needs, more than ever, to preserve the order it built post World War II. But what it can be seen doing is the opposite. It is the one entity that attacks this order the most, and the most blatantly.
A lot of its attacks on its own global order are to enable, support and protect Israel, although in the grand scheme of geopolitics the US-Israel relation is nowhere near as important as the US relationship with China, India, Russia, Europe, or any of the energy- and mineral-rich nations around the world.
So while the US–Israel Alliance may have killed Hamas’ political leadership, it has damaged the US interests in a much more significant manner.