|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
At 8:06 am Eastern US time on Tuesday, just hours before his deadline to Iran was set to expire, US president Trump delivered an apocalyptic threat to Tehran, declaring that unless his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz was fulfilled, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”, writes The New York Times. 3W notes this was nothing short of genocidal language. People can be killed. Infrastructure can be destroyed. But civilizations can only be erased by genocide.
Ten hours and 26 minutes later, at 6:32 pm Eastern US time, Trump lifted the threat, saying that via Pakistan the US and Iran had agreed a two-week ceasefire. Bloomberg writes that Trump then posted on social media account: “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in a social media post said: “In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces”
So what exactly has been agreed? Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said in a social media post on Tuesday night: “With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.” Pakistan further invited the US and Iran to Islamabad on Friday, for the first round of peace talks, writes The Associated Press.
In the 3W view, the first key question that should now be investigated is, will this ceasefire hold and thereby allow room for actual negotiations? In response to this question, a first point to take note of is that apparently, China, Iran’s biggest trade partner, spoke with Tehran to get them on board, writes The Associated Press. If true, this means there is some external pressure on Iran to show willingness to compromise on its negotiation positions.
A second point in this regard is that Iran has already taken steps clearly based on the ceasefire agreement. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, said in a statement early Wednesday that it will halt its operations in Iraq and the region for two weeks, writes The Associated Press. The Iraqi resistance group Kataib Hezbollah, aligned with Iran, said in a statement that it had released the American, Shelly Kittleson, which it had abducted about a week ago, writes The New York Times. Two French citizens who had been arrested in Iran on spying charges have also been released, writes The New York Times.
A third noteworthy point is that Pakistan felt pressured by Saudi Arabia to find a way to deliver a ceasefire. On Monday and Tuesday, Iran responded to the US – Israel Alliance attacks on its petrochemical infrastructure by attacking the major petrochemical economic zone of Jubail in Saudi Arabia, writes Nikkei Asia. This led Pakistan’s military to fear that it would be dragged into the war against Iran if the US escalated in the way that Trump had threatened, because Iran had been clear that it would retaliate across the Arabian Gulf region. Under the terms of the Saudi – Pakistan defense agreement signed in 2025, this could have led to Saudi Arabia asking Pakistan to come to its defense against Iran.
Which means the ceasefire is designed to regroup and reorganize, ahead of another attack
However, and this is a fourth point of importance, Israel has already officially responded saying it does not agree with the statement of Pakistan’s prime minister that the agreement is for a ceasefire everywhere. It will continue to attack Lebanon, the office of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu said in a social media post: “The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals, shared by the US, Israel and Israel’s regional allies, in the upcoming negotiations. The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon.” 3W notes this Israeli statement is already against the ceasefire agreement by the intermediary, and therefore has the potential to blow it up – figuratively. The Associated Press writes that since releasing that statement, the Israeli military has struck more than 100 Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Apparently, these attacks took place within the space of 10 minutes, which leaves little doubt in the minds of us at 3W that Israel is very deliberately undermining the ceasefire agreement. According to The National, Israel’s political elite is united in the view that there should be no ceasefire with Iran. In a post on social media, opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote that “there has never been such a political disaster in all of our history”. 3W notes that Lapid is often presented as a more “liberal” alternative to Netanyahu. This means, in the 3W view, that no one should expect Israel to abide by any of the terms of the agreement. The Israeli opposition has effectively given Netanyahu the room to do what he wants to, which is continue the war until both the Arabian Gulf and Persian Gulf is destroyed.
The Israeli opposition has effectively given Netanyahu the room to do what he wants to, which is continue the war until both the Arabian Gulf and Persian Gulf is destroyed
Lastly and most importantly, since the announcement of the ceasefire Iran says it has come under attack again. The Associated Press writes that Iran’s Lavan Island, which hosts a refinery and crude oil export facilities was struck. Shortly thereafter, Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all experienced incoming missiles from Iran.
Then to the second key question, which is now largely hypothetical: if the ceasefire were to hold after all, will it enable fruitful peace talks?
This depends to a large extent on what exactly was the basis for the ceasefire agreement. The US proposed 15-point plan and the Iran proposed 10-point plan are miles apart. Unless someone makes massive concessions, it will be impossible to an agreement to be reached.
In this regard, US president Trump says the Iranian 10-point plan is a workable basis for the negotiations, writes Al Jazeera. Yesterday 3W analysed this proposal, and concluded it is totally misaligned with the US demands for an effective surrender by Iran.
At the same time, Trump has said the US will work with Iran to remove buried enriched uranium, writes The Associated Press. This is part of the US peace proposal, but crosses an Iranian red line. Trump also suggested American warships would be “hangin’ around” the Strait of Hormuz, which goes against the Iranian demand of a complete withdrawal of US forces from the region.
Shortly later, Trump then said the ceasefire was based on the US 15-point plan, saying Iran had agreed to “many of the 15 points” to get the ceasefire, writes Reuters. Trump also announced an additional 50% tariff on any country selling weapons to Iran, something, 3W notes, goes against the Iranian demand that the US removes all sanctions on Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran said the two-week ceasefire plan includes an allowance to Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, writes The Associated Press. 3W notes that when Trump demanded Iran “open” the Strait, he probably didn’t mean he was okay with Iran tolling traffic through it.
After taking the above all in, in the 3W view it seems the US – Israel Alliance and Iran remain far apart on everything that matters. This means we expect that the ceasefire will not hold – if it has not broken down already.
It also means that for Iran, the sooner the agreement breaks, the better. Because very clearly the US – Israel Alliance is not interested in compromising in any way. Which means the ceasefire is designed to regroup and reorganize, ahead of another attack.