Iran Drives Trump Mad

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W),  our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

Last Thursday, 3W reported on the communications to the American public by US president Donald Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian. While Pezeshkian argued that Iran is not an enemy of the American people and not a threat to peace in the Middle East region, since it has not attacked anyone since the Islamic republic was establish 47 years ago; Trump, utilizing racist language, threatened to commit war crimes against Iran, unleashing “hell” if it didn’t submit to the US – Israeli Alliance demand for complete and unconditional surrender.

We should have noted then that, ironically, these messages undermine the long established “macro narrative” regarding Iran. In this macro narrative, Iran is supposed to be led by aggressive madmen bent on destruction, while the US is supposed to be led by peace loving and justice spreading humanitarians. It should be clear by now that at least the US part of this macro narrative is complete nonsense.

Since then, the escalation in the War on Iran has continued.

On Friday, a US F-15 jet as well as a A-10 fighter plane “crashed” over Iran, writes The New York Times. 3W notes that “downed by Iranian air defenses” would of course have been a more accurate description of events. But just as in the case of Gaza, where Palestinians only “die” as a result of US – Israel Alliance airstrikes, NYT has clearly fallen in line with the chosen narratives in the case of Iran as well. A rescue mission to bring the American airmen out of Iranian territory resulted in the destruction of two C-130 transport aircraft and two UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters were destroyed during the mission, writes The Hill. Iran says it destroyed the aircraft, while the US says it destroyed its planes to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands.

The Iranian ability to affectively strike enemy aircraft does not seem to have affected the desire to further escalate the War on Iran, however. Last week 3W noted that the US – Israel Alliance had attacked Iran’s steel industry, as well as its pharmaceutical industry, and a bridge connecting Tehran to the city of Karaj. Over the weekend, then, it attacked Iran’s petrochemical industry, in particular the Mahshahr petrochemical zone, writes The Guardian. In addition, the Alliance has again attacked Iran nuclear power plant at Bushehr, writes Al Jazeera. According to Iran this event marked the fourth time the US – Israel Alliance has attacked the facility since the start of this war a little over a month ago. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in a statement expressed “deep concern about the reported incident and says [nuclear] sites or nearby areas must never be attacked, noting that auxiliary site buildings may contain vital safety equipment”.

Iran is supposed to be led by aggressive madmen bent on destruction, while the US is supposed to be led by peace loving and justice spreading humanitarians. It should be clear by now that at least the US part of this macro narrative is complete nonsense

At 3W we believe at this stage that all this is just a harbinger of things to come. There is a group of people in Trump’s inner circle that are pushing for complete annihilation of Iran, and they appear to have the upper hand in the Trump administration, writes The Wall Street Journal. Others in elite US political and military circles have highlighted that such an approach is likely to conflict with international law and constitute a war crime, as 3W also documented last week. But, the fact that privately among Trump’s aids there is now talk of a “Epic Fury 2” operation in the 3W view indicates that complete destruction of Iran’s industrial capabilities, including its broader infrastructure, is now the basis of US planning for the war. As some analysts have noted, this really signals the Israelization of US war making.

Trump provided clear support for the above assessment by posting on social media over the weekend, “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or ​OPEN UP THE HORMUZ ​STRAIT. Time is ⁠running out — 48 hours before all Hell will reign (sic) down on them. Glory be to GOD!”, Reuters writes. 3W can not but note that the last bit of Trump’s post, “Glory be to GOD” is quite ironic, considering that Iran is supposed to be the theocracy. On this point, 3W wants to add an additional remark. US defense secretary Pete Hegseth has asked the American people to pray “every day, on bended knee” for a military victory in the Middle East “in the name of Jesus Christ”, writes The New York Times. We remember America’s Second Gulf War at the beginning of this century, at which time a lot was made of then US president George Bush junior religious conversion to “Born Again Christianity”. That was just a propaganda narrative designed to increase domestic US support for the war, in our view, as the real decision makers then – Cheney, Rumsfeld, et cetera – had no religious drivers. In the current case, in particular with Hegseth, we are not certain. There is an air of religious zealotry that surrounds him, which means he is less than rational and easy to manipulate. We note this because of our fundamental belief (pun intended…) that Israel is actively manipulating the US – first to start this war, and now to escalate it. On this, see our earlier analyses “Iranian Strategic Wisdom Triggers Israeli Demands for US Escalation” and “Iran Leaves the US–Israel Alliance in Distress”.

On Sunday Trump turned the madness up a notch, posting to his social media account another racist and expletive laden message. As per The New York Times, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” he wrote. “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH. Praise be to Allah.” 3W notes the talk about power plants and bridges is talk of war crimes. His reference to Allah can only be understood as a racist jab at the Iranians. More importantly, in our 3W view, is that while Trump’s social media posts are trying to communicate strength and resolve, the increasingly vile threats are in fact communication frustration and desperation.

privately among Trump’s aids there is now talk of a “Epic Fury 2” operation. As some analysts have noted, this really signals the Israelization of US war making

At 3W we also believe Iran sees it this way. In response to Trump’s threats, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on social media that the only viable path was to step back from further escalation. “Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living hell for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn,” he said, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The chaotic White House situation is causing unease among elite US policymakers, it seems. Last Thursday, a day after Trump added to the racist and vile rhetoric regarding Iran in his address to the nation 3W notes, US secretary of defense Hegseth fired three top military officials, writes Time. The affected individuals are US Army Chief of Staff general Randy George, chief of chaplains, major general William Green Jr., and commander of Army Transformation and Training Command, general David Hodne. A response by West Point, from where George graduated, indicated his firing was over disagreements regarding policy: “Through candid insight and experience, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George challenged them to lead with integrity—even when it’s not easy,” West Point wrote. The firing of the chief of chaplains is notable because it is highly unusual. The chief of chaplains is response for religious and moral support for American soldiers. It, in the 3W view, supports the view that Hegseth is pushing a very narrow religious perspective on the War on Iran.

Israel is now preparing to ​attack Iranian energy ‌facilities, but is awaiting a green ​light from ​the US, writes Reuters. Considering Israel’s dominating influence over US policy making, at least when it comes to the Middle East, in the 3W assessment, whenever Israel is said to be “waiting for US permission”, in reality it is working with US political leaders to make them adopt the Israeli plans as US policy. So these attacks are coming, in our view.

whenever Israel is said to be “waiting for US permission”, in reality it is working with US political leaders to make them adopt the Israeli plans as US policy. So these attacks are coming, in our view

All this is happening while intelligence assessments are that Iran maintains its strike capabilities. Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by US and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, according to US intelligence reports, writes The New York Times. Consequently, Iran retains the ability to use its remaining arsenal of ballistic missiles and missile launchers to attack Israel and other countries in the region.

The outlook is grim, therefore. Iran has threatened to retaliate with attacks against infrastructure in Israel and the Gulf states, and so far has responded like-for-like, every time the US – Israel Alliance escalates. On Sunday, for example, Iran attacked petrochemical plants in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in response to the Alliance attack against its petrochemical industry, writes The Guardian. Therefore, if the US – Israel Alliance indeed escalates via the war crimes it has been threatening, it is likely the wider Middle Eastern / West Asia region will be thrown into chaos.

In the background, Iran is working on a way out. It is formulating a protocol with Oman to oversee maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, writes TRT News. Under the scheme, all states will be divided into three categories — “hostile,” “neutral,” and “friendly”, reports Russia’s TASS based on Al Jazeera. Countries in the first group will be prohibited from using the Strait of Hormuz, ships from “neutral” states will be subject to high fees, and “friendly” states will be granted the right of free passage through the strait. 3W notes this is a wise strategy to break down international support for the US – Israel Alliance. Ideally, what iran is likely to want to achieve this way, is for 3^rd countries to start applying pressure on the US to change its course. Iran has therefore announced Iraq is free to move vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, writes Al Jazeera.