Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, noting it is leaving the US in distress. This is not just because the Alliance failed to achieve its objective of “regime change” in Iran. It is also because instead of “getting something” from Iran, it lost something, namely the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of which the global economy is currently in the process of collapsing.
3W notes that this is strengthening the voices in elite US circles that the war needs to be brought to an end, quickly, in any reasonable manner, including through the giving of concessions to Iran. But, 3W also notes, this is the worst-case scenario for Israel, which should therefore be expected to push for escalation – and there are ample evidences this is what it is doing at present.
In an interview with The Financial Times, Donald Trump has said he is negotiating with the “new leadership” in Iran, who are more “reasonable” people. He also said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island. Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.” Trump also said the negotiations with Iran are going “very well”, and that Iran had allowed the passage of vessels destined for Pakistan as a personal present to him. “They gave us 10,” Trump said. “Now they’re giving 20 and the 20 have already started and they’re going right up the middle of the Strait.”
In the 3W view, these statements do not only (again) highlight the imperialist mindset that dominates Trump and his administration. More importantly, in our view, they signal a desire to find a way out of the current mess (from the US perspective). A “more reasonable” leadership in Iran, which is giving Trump presents, would mean that the original objectives of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran have been met. Because those objectives were “regime change”, that is, getting a new leadership in Iran that would submit to the US – Israel Alliance.
Of course, we hasten to add, Trump’s statements are not grounded in reality. Iran has systematically responded to every Alliance attack, meeting every escalation, and through its closure of the Strait of Hormuz put the Alliance and the world economy in a chokehold. These are not the actions of a state contemplating surrender and paying “tribute” to “King Trump”. In fact, the signal the opposite.
Further evidence supporting our 3W assessment of the Iranian mindset at present is the fact that, as writes Axios, Tehran has not formally responded to Trump’s 15-point peace proposal, and has refused to attend a meeting on the basis of the proposal, which Pakistan has been trying to organise.
Our 3W assessment is also supported by Alastair Cooke, the former MI6 operative, Middle East security advisor to the UK and EU, and specialist on “political Islam”. Speaking to Andrew Napolitano on his “Judging Freedom” show, Cooke says the Iranian leadership is of the opinion it is wining this war, and the current situation is creating an opportunity for it to fundamentally reset the Middle Eastern security structure, by forcing the US military out of the region; and in addition, through its control over the Strait of Hormuz, to initiate a serious challenge to one of the pillars underpinning the US Empire, the petrodollar system.
the Iranian leadership is of the opinion it is wining this war, and the current situation is creating an opportunity for it to fundamentally reset the Middle Eastern security structure, by forcing the US military out of the region
It seems unlikely, therefore, that Iran is willing to go along with the “Trump Show” and grant him a dignified exit from this war. That, we at 3W believe, is probably why Trump is also threatening Iran with further escalation of the war. Trump on Monday threatened that if a deal with Iran “is not shortly reached” and if the Hormuz Strait isn’t open “immediately,” the U.S. will “completely obliterate” Iran’s power, energy and water infrastructure, writes Axios. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. is “in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME” in Iran on ending the war and claimed “Great progress” has been made. “But if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched,'” Trump wrote. Though not relevant from an analytical perspective, 3W must here note that Trump’s threat amounts to a war crime. How it can be that this is not called out by the media that report on it is beyond us. At Nuremberg, Trump would have been sentenced to death for threatening the destruction of civilian infrastructure!
The number of American troops in the Mideast region now stands at a little over 50,000, writes The New York Times. Usually there are around 40,000 American troops scattered around at bases and on ships at any time around the region, including in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, NYT adds. There is clearly an increase, therefore, and most of this increase is coming from the combat forces sent to the region over the past weeks. Reuters has more details about the recent US troop deployments to the Middle East. Earlier this week 3W explained why this troop buildup at this level is meaningless, and why every possibly conceivable US ground operation in Iran should be expected to result in massive – and politically unacceptable – US casualties.
However, there is at least a segment of the US’s political and military establishment that does not want a ground operation, it seems. Trump has been told that a mission to pry open the Strait of Hormuz via “boots on the ground” would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks, writes The Wall Street Journal. As a result, Trump has mentioned to people in his inner circle that he could accept walking away from the war even if Iran maintains control over the Strait, WSJ adds. This creates an opening for negotiations, 3W notes, because it means the US is willing to make compromises. And as we mentioned earlier in our series of analysis on the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran, it is Iran which is dominating the military and economic battlefront as present, which means it is the US which must compromise for this to end, not Iran. A compromise solution could be that Iran and the US agree to tax traffic through the Strait together, with Iran functioning as the police enforcing the mechanism, and the US and Iran sharing the proceeds. Perhaps even the Arabian Gulf countries could be brought into the mechanism, such that everyone can get something to justify ending this war.
it is Iran which is dominating the military and economic battlefront as present, which means it is the US which must compromise for this to end, not Iran.
Israel will be dead against this outcome. This is why we at 3W take note of Iran’s official denial of being responsible for the attack on Kuwait’s water desalination facilities over the weekend. The Cradle writes that the Iranian military formally denied the attack, and labelled it as an Israeli false-flag operation aimed at “destabilizing and destroying the region.” The Cradle notes this is not the first time Iran has denied being responsible for certain attacks on Arabian Gulf targets. It also denied responsibility for strikes on fuel tankers in Oman and a refinery in Iraq’s Erbil, as well as one that targeted an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia. At the time of those incidents, US journalist Tucker Carlson reported that Mossad agents had been detained in the Gulf states for planning bombings.
It is with this realization in mind that we also view the report by The Asscoiated Press, which states that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are urging President Donald Trump to continue prosecuting the war against Iran. The AP report also notes that Trumop “vaciliates” between calling the war done and escalating. As 3W noted last week, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times earlier published a similar assertion, while at the same time Reuters wrote that the exact opposite. At that time the 3W assessment was that Israel was using its influence at WSJ and NYT to push the narrative that serves its interest of continued war – “Everyone agrees you need to keep fighting, Donald!”. Because really, the Arabian Gulf states cannot be so stupid as offering the destruction of its energy infgrastructure in order to “weaken Iran”. We continue to believe this is the most likely explanation for news stories such as this. Note that according to The Associated Press, “The Saudis say an eventual war settlement must neutralize Iran’s nuclear program, destroy its ballistic missile capabilities, end Tehran’s support for proxy groups, and also ensure that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be effectively shutdown by the Islamic Republic in the future as it has during the conflict” – which is exactly the Israeli position on the matter!
All of this means that at 3W we continue to stand by our assessment from the 22nd of March, where we said “Iranian Strategic Wisdom Triggers Israeli Demands for US Escalation” Over the almost 10 days since, the US – Israel Alliance has not been able to change the current battlefield dynamic in any meaningful way, while the global economy has moved significantly closer to collapse. So Iran continues to be winning, clearly. As long as the US refuses to accept this reality, it will continue to be pushed to escalate by Israel.