The War on Iran Accelerates the Coming of World War 3

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In this roundup, we take a step back and look at how the US – Israel War on Iran is accelerating the coming of World War III.

As to why War on Iran is accelerating the coming of World War III. President Volodymyr Zelensky spent most of last week traveling across the Arabian Gulf countries, signing defense deals, writes The New York Times. On Saturday he said has negotiated defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Ukraine will be providing the Arabian Gulf countries with “expertise in countering missiles and unmanned aerial systems”. In return, Ukraine will receive money, lots of it, that it can use for the purchase of weapons to keep its war with Russia going. In addition, Zelensky expect Gulf money to be invested in Ukraine’s drone industry, to enable it to become a global exporter of defense drones. The NYT reports also makes clear that Ukraine is already an active participant in the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran. Kyev has already sent more than 200 air defense experts to the region following the start of the Alliance War on Iran. And, it is providing intelligence to the Alliance and the Gulf countries about Russian satellite movements, to counter the information sharing that is going on between Iran and Russia. 3W notes this makes very, very clear that the two “theatres of war” Ukraine and Iran are now becoming ever more linked. The same actors that have allied in the Ukraine War are now also aligning in the Iran War. This really means the two wars are merging, in a dynamic that is very similar to the that eventually leading to World War I, where a European war theatre led by the British Empire and Germany merged with a Middle Eastern theatre led by the British Empire and the Ottoman Caliphate. Today, the “connector” of the different war theatres is the US Empire, which is trying to halt its decline in the face of an upstart (China) in the same way the British Empire tried to halt its decline in the face of an upstart (Germany).

Meanwhile, the Houthi’s of Yemen have officially joined the Iran War. The Houthis said in a statement that the group had launched ballistic missiles targeting “sensitive” Israeli military sites, and that it was acting in tandem with Iran and Hezbollah, writes The New York Times. The Houthi’s statement also said its attacks would continue “until the (Us – Israel Alliance) aggression on all resistance fronts stops.” This development not only means the Iran War’s “theatre of war” is expanding, bringing in Yemen and the Red Sea. It also means the Alliance’s War on Iran is now officially connected to Israel’s War on Palestine and Israel’s War on Lebanon.

the two “theatres of war” Ukraine and Iran are now becoming ever more linked. The same actors that have allied in the Ukraine War are now also aligning in the Iran War. This really means the two wars are merging, in a dynamic that is very similar to the that eventually leading to World War I

A further point of importance for this topic are the efforts to find a diplomatic solution for the US – Israel War on Iran. The US has been using Pakistan to find a diplomatic solution based on its demands, write The Middle East Eye and The Diplomat, which provide a detailed analysis of why the US chose Pakistan to deliver its 15-point peace plan / surrender demands to Iran. Meanwhile, however, Turkey is maneuvering as an alternative peace broker. It is conducting intensive diplomatic efforts to try and prevent Gulf Arab countries from joining the US-Israeli war against Iran, writes Bloomberg. Its Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visiting Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and holding calls with other regional counterparts. Responsible Statecraft writes about Turkey’s activities, and its reasons, which provides support to the thesis Turkey is not operation on the side of the US – Israel Alliance. At 3W we also note the Turkish approach to diplomacy is not aligned with US – Israel Alliance interests, as the Alliance wants the Gulf to unreservedly join them against Iran – recall Iran’s denial of the early attacks against energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Azerbaijan, which at the time led to speculation the Alliance was using “false flag” operations to win the Arabian Gulf countries over. What this therefore means is that there is “pushing and pulling” going on in the diplomatic arena. The US – Israel Alliance is trying to win countries over to its side, but efforts are also underway to prevent this from happening. In other words, all countries are being forced to pick a side, and thereby effectively join the war on that side, in one form or another.

Take note of these developments, we at 3W urge. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes…

Turning to the the most recent developments in the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran.

The Alliance widened its strikes on Iran’s industrial infrastructure on Friday, with attacks on two major steel production complexes that are vital to the country’s economy, along with other industrial sites, writes The New York Times. The strikes reflect a shift in Israeli targeting toward degrading Iran’s civilian infrastructure and economy, writes NYT. The targets on Friday included the steel complexes in Isfahan and Khuzestan, a mine that was part of a cement factory in Firouz Abad, an industrial city in Kheirabad and a warehouse at Mashhad’s airport. In addition, the Alliance again attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, for a third time this month, writes The National. 3W notes the actions indeed go against the US narrative, which has been turning towards diplomacy. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also noted this, saying on social media that Israeli attacks undermined President Trump’s statement that the US would refrain from targeting Iranian infrastructure for 10 days to allow for diplomatic negotiations. This fits into a pattern where Trump talks about diplomacy, making certain promises, which are then broken by an Israeli action. The earlier attack on Iran’s South Pars gasfield is another example. While some interpret this as meaning that Israel is “going it alone”, at 3W we do not share this opinion, because Israel cannot do anything alone. For example, its fighter jets need refueling on their way to Iran and only the US can provide this service. It is therefore one of two options. The first is that the US and Israel work in tandem, with one talking and the other striking. The second is that parts of the US political elite is really trying to talk, but Israel and its partners in US elite political and military circles collaborate to block this approach.  We noted this during the early days of the War on Gaza, where Biden and Schumer called for Israeli restraint, while other and lower centers of power in the US made sure Israel could nevertheless execute its plans.

The first is that the US and Israel work in tandem, with one talking and the other striking. The second is that parts of the US political elite is really trying to talk, but Israel and its partners in US elite political and military circles collaborate to block this approach

In response, on Sunday morning Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had targeted Bahrain’s aluminum company Alba and Emirates ​Global Aluminium, writes Reuters. Alba confirmed the attack had taken place and damaged its facility.

Meanwhile, Iran also struck the Prince ​Sultan Air Base in Saudi ​Arabia, writes The New York Times, destroying and/or damaging refueling planes and an AWACS E-3 Sentry early warning and control aircraft, adds Bloomberg. The combined missile and drone attack amounted to one of the most serious breaches of American air defenses in the course of the monthlong war with Iran, NYT notes.

Also, Iran’s central military command Khatam Al-Anbiya said in a statement carried by state TV that it had destroyed a warehouse in the United Arab Emirates that housed Ukrainian drone experts and their equipment, writes Channel News Asia. “As the hideouts of American commanders and soldiers in Dubai were targeted … a depot of Ukrainian anti-drone systems that was located in Dubai to assist the US military … was targeted and destroyed,” the statement said. Ukrainian officials denounced the news as false, CNA notes.

Most importantly, however, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the global energy industry is very worried that in about a week or two, this will cause an explosion of oil and gas prices, writes CNBC. “There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday at S&P Global’s CERAWeek in Houston. Shell CEO Wael Sawan echoed him a few days later at the annual gathering of industry heavyweights. Disruptions that started in South Asia have “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said. Even in the best-case scenario that oil and gas start flowing again this week, the global economy will be severely affected, CNBC adds. Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, said at the energy conference it could take three to four months to return to full production once the war ends. As to how badly this could affect the energy markets, Australian investment bank Macquarie Group warns that oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the war drags on until June – a scenario Citigroup analysts also posited earlier this week, writes The National.

Lastly, 3W looks at the outlook of the US – Israel War on Iran.

John Mearsheimer in an interview with Glenn Diesen explained why he is extraordinarily pessimistic. The US is completely stuck, he says, as Iran has been capable of absorbing what the US – Israel Alliance has thrown at it, and through its response has established escalation dominance, Mearsheimer says. Now, anything the Alliance can do to Iran, Iran can do worse to the interests of the Alliance, in particular the US. Most importantly through Iran’s effective control over the world economy, via its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Mearsheimer sees no realistic pathways to changing this situation. In his view, US boots on the ground in Iran, even a military operation of tens of thousands of troops cannot but end in disaster. Trump should take his losses and just leave, but that is unacceptable for political reasons – it would be too much of an embarrassment for both the US as a nation and Trump as an individual. Hence, Mearsheimer expect the US will gamble, “throw the dice” as he says, that a ground operation will magically rescue the situation for the US. That is what Japan did when it attacked Pearl Harbour out of desperation, Mearsheimer says. And almost always such desperate military operations end in failure, he notes based on his study of military history.

Reuters writes that Trump faces stark choices after a month of war against Iran: cut a potentially flawed deal and get out, or escalate militarily and risk a prolonged conflict that could consume his presidency. 3W notes that this Reuters assessment also says that victory, as in achievement of the originally defined objectives (regime change in Iran, an end to Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear program, and an end to Iran’s collaboration with the Hezbollah and Houthi’s) is not a realistic outcome anymore.

Indeed, in the 3W assessment it appears the US – Israel Alliance will now, as Mearsheimer predicts, “throw the dice”. The Pentagon is currently preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, writes The Washington Post. The planned operation would fall short of a full-scale invasion, and instead involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops. Still, the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete, while another WaPo source said the potential timeline would be “a couple of months.” For the military experts interviewed by WaPo it is clear any ground operation would be extremely dangerous for US troops. But according to Lindsey Graham, they don’t know what they are talking about. “We did Iwo Jima, we can do this,” Graham said in an interview on Fox News. “My money’s always on the Marines.” 3W notes that Graham in his public statements always presents the Israeli perspective. The “useful idiot” is used by the Israelis to promote their view as to what the US should do. Or in other words, what US soldiers should go an die for – among whom will not be any of Graham’s close family members, we at 3W suspect.

The “useful idiot” is used by the Israelis to promote their view as to what the US should do

The planning for a military way out of this situation has been further complicated by the entry of the Houthi’s into the conflict. In addition to further straining Israel’s air defenses, in the highly, highly unlikely scenario US boots on the ground in Iran first survive their landing, and thereafter succeed in doing Iran serious damage and force the Strait of Hormuz open, Iran now has the ability to close traffic through the Red Sea, writes The Financial Times. Between 2023 and 2025 the Houthi’s already did this, in protest of the US – Israel Alliance genocide against Gaza. In March of 2025 the US launched a military operation against the Houthi’s to force the Bab open, but after a month Trump was forced to declare victory and leave without having changed anything on the ground.

In the background to all this, Israel’s military chief of staff  Eyal Zamir has warned that the “IDF is going to collapse in on itself”, writes The Times of Israel. “I am raising 10 red flags in front of you,” Zamir told ministers. “Right now, the IDF needs a conscription law, a reserve duty law, and a law to extend mandatory service,” he was quoted as saying. “Before long, the IDF will not be ready for its routine missions and the reserve system will not last.” This confirms 3W assessment earlier this week, that the War on Iran is looking more and more like it will destroy the US Empire and the Zionist project.

At this stage, however, we just hope the US – Israel Alliance will not first drag the entire world into World War III…