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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we look at:
- How the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran is further polarizing US society
- The UN conclusion that the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran is illegal under the principles of international law; and the Israeli ambition to “just destroy Iran”
- Why the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran is a war of attrition, that is likely to take weeks, without it being certain at this stage which side will outlast the other; although the changing US – Israeli narrative on how long the war will last is an indication things are not going their way at the moment
- How the US – Israel Alliance plan to get the Kurds to invade Iran could backfire
- How Iran has strategically prepared for this war
- How the War on Iran is creating energy chaos around the world; including how Russia is using this to humiliate Europe over its Russia sanctions policy; and how Asia is affected
In our original analysis of the US – Israel Alliance latest attacks on Iran we set out a scenario that the move would trigger domestic opposition to US president Trump, especially if the attack did not result in a “quick and clear” victory for the Alliance. That seems to be happening. Axios writes that after a briefing on the state of the war, the members of the Democratic party who were in attendance referred to it as “bullsh*t”. Some of Trump’s main MAGA supporters have also spoken out against the war, writes The Associated Press. Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Matt Walsh are among those to express discontent. 3W notes these figures operate in what is called “alternative media”. The most popular personalities on mainstream media such as Fox News – Sean Hannity, Brian Kilmeade and Mark Levin – continue to be supportive of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran. Reuters adds that young male voters were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 election, swinging toward Trump after years of Democrats dominating the youth vote. This demography is who Trump has been losing during his first year of his second term. In February, some 33% of men aged 18-29 approved of Trump’s performance in the White House, down from 43% in the same month of 2025. A March poll of 1,004 Americans found that voters ages 18 to 34 registered the strongest opposition to the strikes, with 71% saying they disapproved.
Part of the reason why the War on Iran is controversial in the US is the fact that it is clearly illegal according to the principles of international law the US itself has been promoting around the world. An independent United Nations probe investigating rights violations in Iran condemned on Wednesday attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran, saying they violated the UN Charter, writes Reuters. The UN probe also said the killing of dozens of Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei through US – Israel Alliance airstrikes, was not an acceptable means to deliver justice under international law. The probe further said Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the region were also in conflict with the UN Charter.
The UN probe’s conclusion is confirmed by the Israeli official position on the reason for the war. The Financial Times writes that it differs from the officially announced position US. Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert and senior researcher at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, summarized Israel’s viewpoint as, “If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn’t care less about the future . . . [or] the stability of Iran.
Then on to the battlefield reality. According to the US secretary of defense Hegseth, the war is going splendid. “This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down,” Hegseth, sounding supremely confident, said at a briefing at the Pentagon, according to Reuters. “We can sustain this fight easily for as long as we need to.” Hegseth was especially happy that a US submarine had sunk an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. The ship was on route back to Iran from India. Local authorities said 32 people had been rescued while 87 bodies had been recovered. About 60 sailors were unaccounted for from the estimated 180-strong crew. “An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters,” said Hegseth. “Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death.” The Israeli military further said its aircraft had struck a compound in eastern Tehran housing all Iran’s security bodies, including the Republican Guard, intelligence, cyber warfare and internal police in charge of cracking down on protests. Iran, meanwhile, has reduced the number of projectiles it is firing. According to general Dan Caine, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, this indicates Iran has lost a significant part of its ability to launch drones and fire rockets. 3W notes that in war, it is normal for the fighting side to present their themselves as “clearly winning”. To really make sense of what is going on, therefore, one must reflect on both stories, that is the US and the Iranian version.
Not much is available in the English language press about the Iranian perspective on how the war is progressing. But earlier, based on the impact of Iran’s strikes on US assets around the Middle East, and the struggles of the US to craft a reasonable narrative about the war, 3W concluded Iran had the upper hand. The National explains one of the keys to Iran’s success. Iran’s war effort rests on a “mosaic defence” strategy, which disperses power to more junior commanders. the aim of the strategy is to withstand attacks on Tehran, such as the strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and let troops fight back based on “general instructions”. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gave the plan away on the second day of the US and Israeli war. “Decentralised Mosaic Defence enables us to decide when – and how – war will end,” he said. Pro-Iran groups across the Middle East, known as the Axis of Resistance, are similarly acting under a “shared understanding” rather than a joint command. The mosaic doctrine was developed in the mid-2000s, after the US invasion of Iraq. As described by state media, it allows the army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to run a “large, dispersed militia force” that fights a war of attrition. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the IRGC from 2007 to 2019, split up military command into 31 cells that could function by themselves if others were destroyed. In the 3W view, this Iranian strategy is key. It means that what the US looks at to determine its success, is by and large irrelevant – similar to the “enemy casualty estimates” the US released during the Vietnam War, which were designed to give the impression it was winning the war that, in the end, it lost. In the 3W view, the War on Iran will be another war of attrition, similar to the War in Ukraine. As such, the supply chain will determine who will, in the end, be able to rightfully claim victory. It is far too early to tell if Iran is indeed running out of missiles and drones, or the ability to launch them, in our view. The possibility that the US will deplete its stockpiles of ammunition, including for air defense, earlier, we believe remains real at this stage.
On the subject of who in this war of attrition can outlast the other, Israel says the War on Iran is likely to last week, writes The Financial Times. Israel says the “third phase” of the war is under way. That followed a first phase that consisted of deadly opening strikes in Tehran on Saturday targeting the Iranian leadership, followed by a second phase of “100 hours” focused on destroying ballistic missile, drone and air-defence capabilities. A senior Israeli military official said Israel’s objective was to “dismantle the regime’s military infrastructure, including the IRGC” as well as Iranian nuclear sites, military production facilities and space and cyber capabilities. “We’re preparing for several long weeks,” an Israeli official said. According to Pete Hegseth, however, the war could last up to eight weeks, writes The Wall Street Journal. In the 3W view, the shifting narrative on the timeline of this war indicates that it is not progressing in line with the original Israeli plan (since we see the US not as a leading actor in the Middle East anymore, but as a stooge being led along by Tel Aviv).
In an effort to turn the battlefield reality decisively around, Israel is pushing the US to start arming Kurds and have them start a second front in the north of Iran, crossing from Iraq, writes The Wall Street Journal. Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran, and the US has asked Iraqi Kurds to support them, writes The Associated Press. Khalil Nadiri, an official with the Kurdistan Freedom Party, or PAK, based in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, said Wednesday that some of their forces had moved to areas near the Iranian border in Sulaymaniyah province and were on standby. He said Kurdish opposition group leaders had been contacted by US officials regarding a potential operation, without giving more details. 3W notes that the Kurds never seem to learn. For over a hundred years now they have been used and abused by the empires that have sought to dominate the Middle East. The most recent example is the Kurds of Syria, who supported the US plans for Syria during the civil war there, and then got abandoned after the US decided Al Sharaa should be the new president. Whether the Iranian Kurds can have play a decisive role in the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran remains to be seen. If they do indeed open a front against Iran from the north, it does increase the risk of the further regionalization of the conflict, as this would leave the Turks on edge and eager to get involved – but on the side of Iran, against the Kurds. In addition, 3W notes, if the Iraqi Kurds were to offer support to the Iranian Kurds, this also increases the risk of renewed civil war in Iraq where the Kataaib Hezbollah remain loyal to Iran.
Then on to the broader economic fallout from the war. Qatar has declared “force majeure” on gas exports on Wednesday, with sources telling Reuters it may take at least a month to return to normal production volumes. Force majeure is a clause that frees parties from liability if any failure to meet supply obligations is due to events beyond their control. The move means global gas markets will experience shortages for weeks even in the unlikely scenario the conflict ends today, as Qatar supplies 20% of global liquefied natural gas. The US, the world’s largest LNG producer, has little spare capacity to quickly lift LNG output and offset lost supply, Reuters adds.
This means Russian LNG is now, suddenly, is great demand. Clearly, Russian president Vladimir Putin has seen an opportunity in this, as Wednesday he said that he will instruct his government to consider halting deliveries of Russian energy resources to Europe – which has been working on its 20th sanctions package on Russia – and redirecting them to Asia, writes Anadolu Ajansi. In an interview with local media, Putting emphasized that Europe itself plans to completely refuse Russian energy resources. “They are still, as they just said, planning to introduce restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas, including liquefied natural gas, in a month, with the last day being the 24th, starting on the 25th. And in a year, in 2027, further restrictions up to a complete ban,” he said. Putin added: “But now, other markets are opening up, and perhaps it would be more advantageous for us to stop supplies to the European market right now, to move to those markets that are opening up and establish ourselves there.” The Russian president emphasized that there is “no political subtext” in his proposal, but 3W notes that anyone who believes that is a geopolitical fool. Putin said what he said exactly because he knows Europe is now desperate for Russian energy. And, we add, he is wise to now maneuver into a situation where he can say to the Europeans, “we don’t have any supplies for you, I am afraid, but if you cancel all your sanctions on us, I will see what I can do”.
Energy import dependent Asia is also concerned about the situation, writes Nikkei Asia. Energy companies throughout Asia are also increasingly invoking “force majeure” clauses as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts supply chains across the region. There are growing concerns that supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), critical to a wide range of industrial activities, as well as fuel and basic chemical products such as ethylene will be disrupted. In Myanmar and Thailand, some worry about shortages of gasoline used in everyday life. Indonesia’s largest petrochemical company, Chandra Asri Pacific, announced on Tuesday that it had declared force majeure. In Vietnam, state-owned gas giant Petrovietnam Gas has declared force majeure for LPG supplies to some customers. In India distributors have begun rationing gas supplies to industry.
While jet fuel is still readily available in Asia, Jet fuel prices in Asia’s trading hub Singapore rocketed 72% to $225.44 a barrel on Wednesday, writes Reuters. The spot price of jet kerosene has now gained 140% since the close of $93.45 a barrel on February 27, the day before the United States and Israel launched an aerial bombing campaign against Iran.
China has told the country’s largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, in order to ensure domestic supplies, writes Bloomberg. India, meanwhile, has increased its buying of Russian crude oil to deal with the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg writes separately.
As to the Strait of Hormuz, interestingly, while its blockade is still in place, Iran has allowed a Chinese-owned vessel to sail through, writes Bloomberg. An LPG tanker which broadcast that it was a Muslim-owned and Turkish-operated vessel was also allowed to sail through.
The Gulf’s biggest oil producers are facing a race against time to resume exports before their storage tanks fill up, writes The Financial Times. Iraq on Tuesday became the first major exporter to begin reducing output, announcing it was winding down production at three of its largest oilfields. Further oilfields across the region are poised to shut down over the coming days, taking millions of barrels of crude off the market, unless energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are able to resume. Saudi Arabia is estimated to have as little as two weeks before it would have to cut production. This means, 3W notes that the US – Israel War on Iran will affect the global economy for longer than the actual war will last. Even if the war is decisively won by the Alliance in a relatively short time period, weeks, it will affect global energy supplies for months. A global recession in 2026 is therefore a given, in our view., The only question at this stage is, how deep will it be?