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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer the US-Israel Alliance war on Iran that is now in its third day.
Hezbollah launched what it said was a rocket and drone attack against an Israeli military base near Haifa in northern Israel, writes Al Jazeera. The movement said the attack was in retaliation for the killing of the ayatollah Khamenei. In response, Israel launched a massive attack on Lebanon. At least 31 people were killed and 149 injured by Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern Lebanon, writes The National.
Axios writes that the current US – Israel Alliance attack against Iran was agreed during the visit of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu to the White House in December 2025. Over the following weeks, the Mossad director visited Washington DC twice, followed by the Israeli military intelligence chief and the IDF chief of staff — all coordinating what would become Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion. Then in February Netanyahu again travelled to Washington DC to define what the Alliance should demand from Iran in negotiations – a complete end to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, as well as to its ballistic missile program, and its support for groups in the Middle East such as Hezbollah. Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were skeptical about the chances of getting a deal on the basis proposed by Netanyahu from the start, but were instructed to keep negotiations going to give the Iranians the idea diplomacy was being given a real chance. Last Saturday, the Alliance then struck while Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei was having a routine weekly meeting with his aides. They also attacked two other gatherings of Iranian security and intelligence officials in Tehran at the same time.
The Washington Post writes that in addition to Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also made multiple private phone calls to Trump over the past month advocating a US attack. At the same time, Riyadh supported the efforts of the US – Israel Alliance to mislead Iran, saying in public that it would not allow the Alliance to use Saudi territory or airspace for an attack on Iran.
One of the meetings attacked by the US – Israel Alliance was a meeting of Iran’s Defense Council. Anadolu Agency writes Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s Defense Council secretary and senior adviser to Ali Khamenei, was killed in this attack, as were Chief of the General Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Pakpour, and Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Aziz Nasirzadeh.
The New York Times writes that the CIA figured out the location and time of the meetings, and then passed the information on to Israel for them to deliver the attack.
3W notes that this indicates a shocking level of complacency among the Iranians, who really should have operated on the basis of a worst-case scenario (“attacks are imminent”) rather than on the belief that diplomacy would avoid an actual war. We note the Iranians made the exact same mistake in July 2025. At the same time, in Iran’s defense, Foreign Policy writes that the country has built a system of institutions that ensures the Iranian state is not dependent on any single individual, and as such capable of withstanding “decapitation strikes”.
3W also notes that most western media completely ignore the statements from Oman Foreign Minister, which 3W covered yesterday. Badr Albusaidi said that Iran had agreed to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and to never stockpile enriched uranium, something the UN inspectors would be allowed to check with full and free access to Iran. This fact does not fit in with the narrative the US – Israel Alliance has crafted, which holds that Iran was not sincere in the negotiations, was only playing for time, wanted to maintain its ability to produce a nuclear weapon, etc, and as such is being ignored. The facts indicate that, as The Guardian writes, “there was no need” for this war. The US – Israel Alliance effectively demanded that Iran surrender, while Iran insisted on its right for nuclear enrichment for civilian purposes that is allowed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty – that Israel has refused to sign – as well as its sovereign right for self defense.
Meanwhile, The National has analysed some of the weapons system Iran has recently acquired through its collaboration with Russia and China. Russian scientists have enhanced the Iran-developed Shahed-136 drones, enabling them to carry missiles on top to give them greater range and effect. Iran is understood to have secretly signed an arms deal with Russia in December to supply it with 500 of the Verba shoulder-held surface-to-air missile launchers (SAMs), complete with 2,500 of the 9M336 infrared homing missile. The weapon can travel at 1,850kph with a range of 6.5km carrying a 1.5kg warhead and is able to engage fighters, helicopters, drones and even cruise missiles. It is China’s YJ-12 “Eagle Strike” ship-killer cruise missile that will, if it has been supplied to Iran, cause the most concern among US commanders. Carrying a 500kg warhead, the missile, whose export variant is called the CM-302, can perform evasive manoeuvres to avoid anti-missile threats while travelling at 5,000kph.
As to what Iran’s strategy likely is, Trita Parsi writes on LinkedIn that “this time is different” from the Iranian perspective. Iran agreed to a ceasefire after the US – Israel Alliance attacked it in July 2025, and has now concluded that this only enabled the Alliance to reorganize and regroup in preparation for another attack. In addition, Iran’s security establishment has concluded that their country’s willingness to enter into diplomacy, and offer concessions on its nuclear program, was seen as “signs of weakness” by the security establishments of Israel and the US. Therefore, Iran is now focused on ensuring its deterrence is re-established, and the ability of the Alliance, and its allies when it comes to Iran, namely the Gulf States and Europe, is severely degraded. Such that the US and Israel’s other allies will properly assess Iran’s defensive capabilities, and be without the practicable ability to launch another war on Iran at least for a number of years. To achieve this, Iran is systematically attacking the US bases across the Middle East region, in order to completely destroy them.
The above strategy explains why, after the UK agreed to let US use British military bases to attack Iran, Iran struck the British military base on Cyprus. The UK’s RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus was hit by a drone strike, writes The Guardian. Another Iranian drone struck an Abu Dhabi naval base hosting French forces, writes Al Arabiya.
The above also explains why Iranian security chief Ali Larijani quickly denies a report that he had privately sought a diplomatic off-ramp amid the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. “We will not negotiate with the United States,” Larijani said in a post on X on Monday, writes The Wall Street Journal.
This highlights the key weakness in the plan of the US – Israel Alliance. This is the lack of public support for the current war. Already, elements of the US’s political and policy establishment have come out against the war
While the US – Israel Alliance have succeeded in killing a number of Iran’s political elites, the war is certainly not over. Instead of protests inside Iran against the government, it appears to have brought the Iranians together and motivated their armed forces. 3W says this because Axios writes that Trump is now publicly bracing his country for a sustained, costly military campaign in the Middle East. The first three US military casualties have already been announced, and Trump says more will follow. Trump, in a social media post, also tried to harness support for his war, again arguing that Iran was on the verge of building a nuclear weapon with which is was about to attack the US. 3W notes that above we explained why the facts are against this narrative.
This highlights the key weakness in the plan of the US – Israel Alliance. This is the lack of public support for the current war. Already, elements of the US’s political and policy establishment have come out against the war. Writing on Substack, the American diplomat and former editor of Foreign Affairs Richard Haass calls the operation “A Questionable War of Choice”. He also says that regime change is unlikely to be achieved by the military operation. “The Trump administration has chosen an objective – regime change – that is political rather than military. Military force can destroy and kill, but on its own it cannot bring about regime change… Regime ouster is [also] not the same as regime change – certainly not successful regime change. Even if this clerical regime were to fall, the security forces are best positioned to take its place, not a democratic alternative. And they would likely continue Iran’s current foreign policy objectives that the United States finds so objectionable.” In an interview with Politico, “uber hawk” John Bolton cheered on the attack, but also expressed the believe that the Trump administration probably did not think through completely how things would develop after the first strike was over.
The reports that Iran has been able to shoot down a number of US fighter jets over Kuwait, as reported by Bloomberg, is therefore bad news for the US – Israel Alliance. The American public loves winners. If the US is not seen as dominating in this conflict, very quickly the US public will turn against Trump’s War on Iran. In that sense, as some analysts have speculated, the outcome of what is presented as a “regime change operation” could well be a”reverse regime change operation” – pushing Trump into a political corner domestically.