On Friday 27th Feb, the Omani foreign minister went public with the details of what Iran offered the US during the most recent nuclear talks. Iran agreed during indirect talks with the US never to stockpile enriched uranium, said Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who described the development as a major breakthrough, writes Al Jazeera. “If the ultimate objective is to ensure forever that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, I think we have cracked that problem through these negotiations by agreeing [on] a very important breakthrough that has never been achieved any time before,” Al Busaidi said. “The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never ever have nuclear material that will create a bomb,” he said. “Now we are talking about zero stockpiling, and that is very, very important because if you cannot stockpile material that is enriched, then there is no way that you can actually create a bomb,” he added. There would also be “full and comprehensive verification by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]”, he said. Regarding recent US demands regarding Iran’s missile programme, Al Busaidi said: “I believe Iran is open to discuss everything”. Al Busaidi added that he believed all issues in a deal between Iran and the US could now be resolved “amicably and comprehensively” within a few months.
Despite all this, on Saturday 28th Feb, the US – Israel Alliance attacked Iran.
What this means, in the 3W view, is that the Omani’s really put in a sincere effort to avoid war. They not only facilitated the negotiations, but went public with what had been agreed, to let the world know peace through diplomacy could be achieved. That the Alliance nevertheless attacked, just hours later, indicates that for Israel and the US, the negotiations were just a façade, a way to win time to prepare for the attack on Iran that was always their real objective. Peace was never the objective. War to destroy Iran was always the intended goal.
US president Trump essentially confirmed this 3W assessment in his video address announcing the military operation. Axios writes that Trump said, “We’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. … We’re going to annihilate their navy, we’re going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces,” Almost as an afterthought, Trump ended his justification with the words, “And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.”
the Omani’s really put in a sincere effort to avoid war. They not only facilitated the negotiations, but went public with what had been agreed, to let the world know peace through diplomacy could be achieved. That the Alliance nevertheless attacked, just hours later, indicates that for Israel and the US, the negotiations were just a façade, a way to win time to prepare for the attack on Iran that was always their real objective
As to how Iran is likely to respond, the country should be expected to try and withstand the first volley of strikes, then respond by targeting symbolic US and allied assets in the region, inflict casualties on US forces, and drag out the conflict, writes Al Majalla. The purpose of Iran’s response would not be to confront the United States directly and try to degrade its capabilities— that’s suicidal and unrealistic—but to exact a high enough political price on Trump to compel him to abort the war effort. Even Trump’s MAGA base is against this war, with a majority of Americans seeing it as another foreign adventure for the interests of Israel. Trump therefore needs a swift and decisive victory, meaning that if Iran can hold pout, domestic US pressure against the war is likely to build on Trump.
First reports are that Iran has already responded, striking US military bases in Bahrain and Qatar, writes APA.
What we at 3W believe the US – Israel Alliance will try to achieve is a coup against the ruling establishment in Iran. In a video announcing the start of the military operation, US president Trump encouraged Iranians to seize control of their government when US military operations conclude, writes CNN. To achieve this, the Alliance would have to “attack to kill” Iran’s current leadership, including the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the moment of confusion that would be caused by such an event, a coup attempt could be launched by elements inside Iranian society loyal to the Alliance. In essence, this was the tactic in Venezuela: pre-agree with elements in the establishment a coup, then take out the leadership in order to enable the coup to be successful.
The purpose of Iran’s response would not be to confront the United States directly and try to degrade its capabilities— that’s suicidal and unrealistic—but to exact a high enough political price on Trump to compel him to abort the war effort
But, 3W notes, the risks of this operation are significant. An attack on the Ayatollah would, in the view of most adherents of Shi’ism, be an attack on the religion of Islam itself. As such, it could trigger uprisings by armed militias regionally, in Iraq and Lebanon in particular. Iran could also ask the Houthi’s in Yemen to come to their aid through re-launching their attacks on Alliance targets in the Red Sea area.
The importance of this latest War on Iran was highlighted by a speech by former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations a few weeks ago. Speaking to senior American Jewish leaders during their annual leadership mission, Bennett argued that “Turkey is the new Iran”, writes The Media Line. “At this moment, a new Turkish threat is emerging,” Bennett said. “Turkey and Qatar have gained influence in Syria, are seeking influence elsewhere and everywhere throughout the region. And from here, I warn, Turkey is the new Iran. Erdogan is sophisticated, dangerous, and he seeks to encircle Israel. We can’t close our eyes again.” Bennett accused Turkey, alongside Qatar, of attempting to build what he described as a hostile Sunni axis. “Turkey and Qatar are nourishing the Islamic Brotherhood monster that is growing,” he said. “Turkey is trying to flip Saudi Arabia against us and establish a hostile Sunni axis with nuclear Pakistan.”
Around the same time, Israel’s former minister of defense Yoav Gallant published an explanation of Israel’s Middle East strategy on Substack. The ultimate objective of the US – Israel Alliance actions since October 7 is to “rearrange the balance of power”, he says. 3W notes that in his piece Gallant speaks as though Iran is already defeated, and he warns that Turkey will try to take up the space in the Middle East that Iran’s defeat has left open. Israel should not allow this, Gallant writes.
This is further confirmation, in the 3W view, of our analysis from months ago, that behind everything happening in the Middle East is an Israel plan to create a “New Levant”. In this New Levant, the immediate neighbours of Israel – Lebanon, Syria, Jordan – are to be destroyed such that Israel completely dominates them. Beyond this, the countries that have an inherent capability to resist Israel, due to their natural resource endowment, i.e. Iran, Turkey, but also Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are to be weakened to such an extent that they will voluntarily choose to submit to Israel. Over time, this “New Levant” will enable Israel to achieve its ambition for a Greater Israel, which means annexation of all the land in between the Nile and Euphrates rivers. This Greater Israel would encompass not only Gaza and the entire West Bank of Palestine, but also Jordan, Syria, and parts of Lebanon, Egypt Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
behind everything happening in the Middle East is an Israel plan to create a “New Levant”
Considering the above, for the sake of peace in the Middle East, and the wellbeing of humanity, the best possible outcome of the first days of war is a “bloody nose” for the Alliance. One which will make it, as at least the US-arm of the Alliance, re-assess its strategic priorities. As 3W wrote last week, Iran could achieve this if it able to down a number of the Alliance fighter jets that attack it. Or, by targeting and striking high-value US assets, such as the aircraft carriers in its vicinity. Or, by announcing the development of a nuclear weapon in response to the second illegal US – Israel War against it.
Beyond Iran, the interests of the countries in the Middle East, and even the interests of their current political leaderships, require that they form a united front against the US – Israel Alliance. As made clear by the above, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will eventually find themselves a target of the Alliance, if the Alliance’s plan for Iran succeeds. Even if the US assures these countries, traditional allies of the US, that they are safe, Israel will eventually pish the US to change its tone. And, Israel has proven the ability to drive US foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Middle East. Event Pakistan should be expected to become a target, as Israel is working on a strategic alignment with India. This was evidenced by the visit of India’s prime minister Modi to Israel last week, during which he said in a speech to the Israel Knesset, “Let us ensure that the friendship between India and Israel remains a source of strength in an uncertain world”, writes Bloomberg.
the ultimate objective of the US – Israel Alliance actions since October 7 is to “rearrange the balance of power”
In all this there is a cause for sadness, as the Israeli ambitions will cause great human suffering across the Middle East, as it aims to destroy the Middle East such that it can rule over the ashes. But there is also reason for hope, as the Israeli hubris might actually achieve that which would prevent this Israeli ambition from being achieved: a partnership between the Muslim world’s major powers Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, in support of Iran.