Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the reports that Iran and the US are making progress in the nuclear negotiations.
“We were able to reach a general understanding on a set of guiding principles, on the basis of which we will move forward from now on and begin working on the text of a potential agreement”, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said.
At 3W we are sceptical. One reason is the continued US military build in the Middle East. Another reason is the fact that Israel is pushing the US to demand much more from Iran than just a nuclear deal, as it wants to see an effective capitulation of Tehran. A third reason is that just ahead of the July 2026 attack on Iran, the negotiations were proceeding exactly as they are now. Hence we wonder, is the US – Israel Alliance again lulling the Iranians into a sense of complacency, ahead of another, bigger military attack?
Furthermore, we look at:
- How the changes in geopolitics are affecting the strategies of the world’s major oil companies
- Why China’s control over rare earth minerals is likely to remain for years if not decades to come
Geopolitics
On Tuesday, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that his country and the US had agreed on the “guiding principles” for a potential nuclear deal, writes Axios. “Various ideas were presented and discussed seriously. Ultimately, we were able to reach a general understanding on a set of guiding principles, on the basis of which we will move forward from now on and begin working on the text of a potential agreement. This does not mean that we can reach an agreement quickly, but at least the path has begun,” Araghchi told Iranian state television. The US was less enthusiastic. The talks “made progress” but “there are still a lot of details to discuss,” a US official told Axios. At 3W we are sceptical. One reason is the continued US military build in the Middle East. Another reason is the fact that Israel is pushing the US to demand much more from Iran than just a nuclear deal, as it wants to see an effective capitulation of Tehran. A third reason is that just ahead of the July 2026 attack on Iran, the negotiations were proceeding exactly as they are now. Is the US – Israel Alliance again lulling the Iranians into a sense of complacency, ahead of another, bigger military attack?
Further evidence in support of the thesis that the US is just dragging Iran along is the fact that the US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner are managing not one but two sets of “world scale” negotiations in Geneva – the talks between Ukraine and Russia are also going on there, at the same time, involving the same two unofficial US diplomats. The Iranians have noticed this, writes Reuters. A Middle Eastern official close to Iran’s leadership said the US team’s double agenda in Geneva reinforced doubts about whether Washington was sincere about either of the diplomatic efforts. “The approach risks overstretch,” the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. “It resembles an emergency room with two critically ill patients and a single doctor unable to give either case sustained attention, increasing the likelihood of failure.” The absence of the US’s official top diplomat, secretary of state Marco Rubio, reinforces the impression that Geneva is hosting a show rather than a real effort to achieve diplomatic solutions.
Macroeconomics
The US has launched an aggressive policy offensive to break China’s stranglehold on the global critical minerals market, writes Nikkei Asia. There is the $12 billion stockpiling of metals, as well as the launch of the Critical Minerals Ministerial, a collaboration of US-allied nations with an eye to ensuring a supply chain that is less dependent on China. In the past six months, the White House has also announced more than $30 billion of investment and loan commitments to private companies in the sector. the Trump administration has also taken stakes in several US mining and mineral companies and is also setting its sights overseas. Despite this, the US is unlikely to quickly replace Chinese suppliers anytime soon, NA says. Because even if the US can get its hands on the minerals, most of the rocks will need to be sent overseas – most likely to China – to be processed. The only major non-Chinese heavy rare earths processor at the moment is Australia’s Lynas. A solution could be to invest in new technologies to refine and process minerals. But even if this were to be tremendously successful, it would still be years if not decades until the US can break free from China’s stranglehold on rare earth minerals. In the 3W view, this is why the US is trying to get a stranglehold over crude oil, as a counter to China’s rare earth minerals dominance.
In the 3W view, this is why the US is trying to get a stranglehold over crude oil, as a counter to China’s rare earth minerals dominance.
Energy
After years of cost-cutting to heighten shareholder returns, as investors fretted about peak oil demand, Big Oil executives are now under pressure again to plan for future growth, writes The Financial Times. With the transition to clean energy now expected to be slower, extending the need for fossil fuels, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies are being asked to prove the longevity of their reserves and the strength of their project pipelines. Companies across the sector are now pulling three levers to ensure future growth: stepping up exploration, striking access deals with resource-rich countries, particularly in the Middle East, and pursuing mergers and acquisitions.