Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the Marco Rubio speech at the Munich Security Conference.
He struck a seemingly more conciliatory tone than JC Vance did last year. But beneath the surface, Rubio’s speech this year and Vance’s in 2025 were two sides of the same coin. Rubio’s appeal for a renewed partnership with Europe was very conditional, with the condition being that European leaders embrace the foreign policy of the US.
Furthermore, we look at:
- Israel’s renewed push to bring war back to the Gaza strip
- The status of the US – Iran negotiations; including the Israeli efforts to push the US into war with Iran
- The Ukraine – Russia negotiations
Geopolitics
US secretary of state Marc Rubio spoke at the Munich Security conference. According to Axios, Rubio invited European allies to join the US in building a “new world order” based on economic sovereignty and re-industrialization. The Guardian writes that after the shock of last year’s event, when JD Vance stunned the audience with a frontal US attack on Europe’s liberal democracies, Marco Rubio struck a seemingly more conciliatory tone. But beneath the surface, Rubio’s speech this year and Vance’s in 2025 were two sides of the same coin, it notes. The vision Rubio outlined is fundamentally one of empire. In this imagining, the Americas and Europe are bound by ancestry and religion; “connected spiritually”, as Rubio put it. But the “western alliance” will be marked by raw power, exercised first and foremost within the empire itself by the strong – the US – against the weak – small and medium-sized European countries, Canada and South American states. Within the empire, the US intention is clear, the allies pay up but the US calls the shots. There will be other empires in the world, including Russia and China, and the American empire will compete with them. Yet it is also ready to cooperate, perhaps even collude, especially if the price for collusion is to be paid by its US allies in the “western alliance”. Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times agrees that Rubio and Vance are not, in fact, far apart. Rubio’s appeal for a renewed partnership with Europe was very conditional, he notes, with the condition being that European leaders embrace the blood-and-soil nationalism championed by the Maga movement. That assessment is confirmed by the fact that after Munich, Rubio went to visit Hungary and Slovakia who most resemble the Trump administration’s objective for Europe. In the 3W view, it would have been more accurate for Rachman to say that Rubio demanded that Europe adopt the foreign policy of the US. But otherwise we agree with him.
Trita Parsi notes that despite all this, Rubio received a standing ovation from the European elites in attendance. “The Europeans seem so adamant of being America’s vassal continent that they are willing to accept any basis for it, as long as the US pretends that Europe is an American partner”, Parsi writes on LinkedIn. But Rachman of the FT is more optimistic. He says that the experiences of the past year have drummed home two key messages in Europe. The first is that, in the Trump era, transatlantic relations will inevitably lurch from crisis to crisis. The next one could be over Greenland or trade or Ukraine or something else. But it will surely come. The second lesson is that appeasing Trump is a mistake. Europeans tried that on trade — accepting US tariffs without retaliating. But that decision signalled weakness and invited further attacks. On Greenland, they took a different approach — standing united and making it clear that they were prepared to hit back. Trump backed off. At 3W we say, we hope Europe learned those lessons – but we doubt it.
As to Gaza, while Israel has lived up to none of its promises under the ceasefire deal – it kept bombing the territory, it has kept aid out, and it has established its “yellow line” marking the new border well within the area that was supposed to be Palestinian controlled – it is now crafting a narrative that blames Hamas for everything. Israel on Monday said Hamas will be given a 60-day deadline to disarm or Israeli troops will “complete the mission”, writes The National. To 3W this is not surprising. We have consistently said that the Israel ambition is ethnic cleansing of Gaza, and that it is only going along with the US plan to find a way to bring its plan back in action.
As to Iran, firstly, 3W noted that in his interview with the Judging Freedom podcast, John Mearsheimer echoed our assessment of the causes for the urgent meeting between Trump and Netanyahu at the White House last week. The Israeli’s were fearing a US backtrack on Iran and for that reason travelled to Washington DC in an attempt to keep the US on track with the Israeli plan to attack Iran in order to deliver a coup there. But, based on the official press releases by both Trump and Netanyahu after their meeting, Mearsheimer developed the view that Israel did not succeed in its objective, and that certain forces with US elite circles that do not want to go to war with Iran now are having the ear of the US president. In the 3W view, the official statements do incline one to that conclusion. Trump “insisted that negotiations with Iran continue” and that in these negotiations the US is prioritizing a nuclear deal with Tehran, over the broader deal including Iran’s ballistic missile program that Israel wants, writes PBS.
But, at 3W we note, we do not expect Israel to take this “lying down”. Undoubtedly, it will continue its efforts to win over US policy makers to its positions on the subject. Against this background, US senator Lindsay Graham travelled to Israel to meet with Netanyahu, writes The Times of Israel. In Tel Aviv he told reporters is visiting the country “to reassure the Israeli people there is no light” between the US and Israel on Iran. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Foreign Affairs notes that Graham also said “The wars of the future are being planned here in Israel”. In the 3W view, indeed they are.
Meanwhile, the US and Iran will continue nuclear talks this week in Geneva, Switzerland. President Trump said he is going to be “involved indirectly” in these talks, writes Axios. The Iranians are tough negotiators “…I hope they are going to be more reasonable,” Trump said. “They want to make a deal. I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal.”
Iran, however, is maintaining its stance that the country’s missile capabilities are its red line and are not a subject to be negotiated. “The Islamic Republic’s missile capabilities are non-negotiable,” Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader the ayatollah, said according to Reuters.
3W remains our readers that there are two possible explanations for what is going on. One is that Iran is indeed “winning” in the diplomatic exchange, as it has convinced the US to accept a narrower platform for discussions, focusing on the nuclear subject where Iran has previously shown a willingness to compromise; because the US would prefer a face saving” exit from the current tensions, as it faces a war with Iran it cannot easily win. The other explanation is that the US is again taking Iran for a ride, giving it the impression negotiations are successfully moving forward, lulling it into a sense of safety, all in preparation for another had military strike. 3W does not at this stage rule out either option. Also because the US military buildup in the Middle East continues, writes CNN.
As to Ukraine, with the Iran talks moving to Geneva, so have the conversations between Ukraine and Russia. In Geneva, the talks are focusing a land swap accord, writes Reuters. Russia is demanding that Ukraine cede the remaining 20% of the eastern region of Donetsk that Moscow has failed to capture – something Kyiv refuses to do.