Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran.
The “armada” amassed by the US around Iran is large, but less so than in the build-up to the July 2025 Alliance attack on Iran. In this context, the US and Iran are arguing about where to meet for talks, and what to talk about. In the end, the US agreed to talk to Iran on Iran’s terms.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The efforts of Russia and China to remain aligned in the geopolitical arena
- The current state of the War in Ukraine
- How BP and Shell are trying to court the investor world
Geopolitics
The Washington Post has analyzed the location of the US military forces sent into the Middle East region to increase pressure on Tehran. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, accompanied by three guided missile destroyers, entered Central Command’s area of responsibility on Jan. 26 and is now in the north Arabian Sea. At least eight other warships are also in the area, including at least two guided-missile destroyers — the USS McFaul and USS Mitscher — near the Strait of Hormuz. Another destroyer, the USS Delbert D. Black, visited Israel and left port there Sunday; it has since moved further out into the Red Sea. There are two more destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, the USS Bulkeley and the USS Roosevelt. In addition to the warships, more than three dozen American aircraft, including fighter jets, drones and planes used for refuelling, reconnaissance and transport, have traveled to US bases or flown in the region. Most landed at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. At least a dozen F-15E fighter jets along with nine A-10C Thunderbolt IIs, which are used to protect troops on the ground from enemy forces, were at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Two HC-130J Combat King aircraft, which often fly at flight at night and are used for search and rescue operations in contested environments, left the Greek island of Chania last week and flew toward the Jordanian base, which indicates the Pentagon may be anticipating operations where aviators and special operators would need to be retrieved inside enemy territory. Additional assets include F-35 fighter jets and EA-18G Growlers, an electronic warfare aircraft that jams radars and disrupts communications, both of which are on board the USS Abraham Lincoln. The Growlers are used to take out an adversary’s air defenses, creating a safer environment for other jets. According to WaPo, the data reveals that the buildup falls short of what the Pentagon deployed in the region ahead of strikes against the Iranian nuclear program in July 2025.
The US “armada” on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone, writes The New York Times. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln was operating about 500 miles from Iran’s southern coast when an Iranian Shahed-139 drone “unnecessarily maneuvered toward the ship,” according to US military officials. 3W notes that this NYT report is propaganda at work. The US moved an “armada” to the borders of Iran, and then threatened to attack. In this context, an Iranian drone investigating the US military forces cannot realistically be called “aggressive”. But nevertheless, NYT does it.
Then as to the negotiations. As 3W mentioned earlier, the US and Iran had agreed to meet on Friday in Istanbul, with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers. But, Axios writes, the Iranians said on Tuesday that they wanted to move the talks to Oman and hold them in a bilateral format, to ensure that they focused only on nuclear issues and not other matters like missiles. The US refused this change and on Wednesday threatened to call of the meeting in its entirety. But after pleading by the Arab countries, the US agreed to the Iranian proposal after all. The talk will now be in Oman and will be about the nuclear subject only.
3W sees two possible ways to interpret this development. First, it can be seen as a major victory for Iran. The US – Israel Alliance wants Iran to surrender all the elements of power that give it the ability to develop policy independently – its nuclear technological know-how, its ballistic missiles, and its relations with other entities across the Middle East, not only groups such as Hezbollah but even nation-states such as Iraq. (For example, Bloomberg writes that the US has threatened Iraq that if it appoints Nouri Al Maliki, who has close relations with Iran, as its next prime minister, the US will confiscate Iraqi oil revenues currently held in US banks.) In other words, the Alliance wants Iran to surrender at the negotiation table. With that being the objective, accepting an agenda that only talks about the nuclear subject could indicate that the Alliance is decreasing its current demands as it knows it cannot right now get what it wants. In this case, it could mean the US in particular is looking for an “off ramp”, something of a deal that can be sold to the general public as a victory, to prevent a war that in the US assessment would be too painful for the Alliance to bear.
The second option is that, as has happened before, the Alliance is using the push for diplomacy to distract and confuse its opponents. In this case, the Alliance works to draw all attention into the diplomatic process, by causing dramatic ups and downs, with talks being on, then off, then on again, such that when the Alliance finally strikes Iran is caught off guard.
In the 3W view, even if the first option is what is going on, this does not mean the US – Israel Alliance has dropped its ambitions regarding Iran. There are no indications that the Alliance has concluded Iran deserves a “seat at the table”. The first option would therefore only mean that the Alliance is of the opinion the timing is not yet right for a military action that forces Iran to accept the Alliance’s demand for Iranian surrender. This Iran MUST recognize and remember. Iran has no real diplomatic way out of its current predicament. The Alliance will only fundamentally change its position if Iran has the hard power that forces the Alliance to change its position. Until then, any deal Iran strikes with the Alliance will be broken by the Alliance, and will only be used by the Alliance to move forward with its plans to force an unconditional surrender upon Iran.
In the background to the talks with Iran, the US is trying to get Iran’s allies Russia and China to abandon Tehran, writes the Associated Press. US president Trump spoke to China’s president Xi on Wednesday. In the 3W view, this gives the impression the US is not convinced yet the time is right for an attack on Iran.
After speaking to Trump, Xi got on a call with Russian president Putin, writes The Associated Press. The two discussed trade relations, but also their position regarding the US. “I would like to once again assure you of firm support for our shared efforts to ensure the sovereignty and security of our countries, our socio-economic welfare and the right to choose our own development path,” Putin said in opening remarks. Xi said that he and Putin would discuss plans for the development of bilateral ties and “exchange views on major strategic issues”. He noted the two countries need to “use a historic opportunity to continue deepening strategic cooperation.” Putin further accepted an invitation by Xi to visit China twice this year. Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov briefed reporters after the Putin-Xi call, and said the two countries views about their countries’ views on relations with the US “practically coincide,” including their assessment of Trump’s Board of Peace. “Russia and China stand for equal and mutually beneficial cooperation on the basis of international law and the United Nations Charter,” Ushakov said.
As to Ukraine, Reuters writes that Russia’s forces have slowly ground forward along various parts of the 1,200-km (745 mile) front line in recent months. While closing on the so-called “fortress belt” of cities in the eastern Donetsk region, Russian troops are also advancing toward Zaporizhzhia. More and more Ukrainians are fleeing the contested areas.
In this context Russia and Ukraine are presently negotiating in Abu Dhabi, writes The Associated Press. The delegations from Moscow and Kyiv were joined Thursday in the capital of the United Arab Emirates by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, was also present at the talks.
Energy
A significant share of BP shareholders is still not happy with the company, writes The Wall Street Journal. The company reset its strategy February last year, has cut costs, and changed its leadership team. It is funnelling investments into its traditional fossil-fuel business after a move into renewable sources of energy hit profits and led to multibillion dollar write-downs. But a shareholder resolution argues that the reset strategy and renewed focus on oil and gas doesn’t address the root cause of BP’s underperformance. Under its new strategy, BP is increasing oil-and-gas investment to around $10 billion a year for 2025 to 2027. This is 20% higher than previous guidance, and BP expects returns of greater than 15% on these projects. BP should better disclose how it assesses cost-competitiveness for each project and how it accounts for cost-overruns, and should explain how investment in exploration creates value for shareholders, the shareholder group says.
Shell, meanwhile, continues to focus almost solely on returning as much cash as possible to its shareholders – even at the expense of the longer term success of its business, 3W notes. The Financial Times writes that Shell’s chief executive Wael Sawan said he has asked his team to stretch cost cuts to the “upper limit” of the company’s range, which would take them to $7bn by 2028, having already cut $5bn. He also announced a $3.5bn share buyback — the 17th consecutive buyback of at least $3bn — and a raised dividend, despite profits falling. Shell is financing its general shareholder payout through taking on additional debt.