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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the situation regarding Iran.
The US naval armada has arrived in striking distance from Iran. According to US president Trump, this has increased Iran’s willingness to cut a deal. But, the only deal the US – Israel Alliance is interested is, is complete submission by Iran to the demands of the Alliance.
In our 3W assessment, Iran makes the same mistake as Europe in its dealings with the US. It believes there is a “negotiated way out”, when in reality the Alliance will accept nothing less than unconditional surrender.
If one recognizes the facts as they are, Iran has only one way forward, and that is accepting it will be persecuted by the Alliance, and working on all fronts to reduce the Alliance’s ability to hurt it. That means more firmly integrating into the BRICS hemisphere, and… preparing a nuclear weapon, the means to deliver it, and demonstrate the willingness to use it in self-defence.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The latest update of the US National Defence Strategy (NDS), which confirms 3W’s assessment of the US’s current Grand Strategy
- The Canadian prime minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos, where he summarized the current geopolitical situation
- Israel’s continued violations of the Gaza and Lebanon ceasefire agreements
- The current state of play in Venezuela, where the US now seems in total control
- The purging of China’s military leadership, and its possible implications for Taiwan
Geopolitics
Firstly, in Geopolitics, the US last Friday released the latest version of its National Defence Strategy (NDS). In it, the Pentagon says it will focus on defending the homeland — with a concentration on the western hemisphere — and on deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, writes The Financial Times. The NDS says the security and prosperity of the US are linked to America’s “ability to trade and engage from a position of strength in the Indo-Pacific”. The NDS said that if China dominated the Indo-Pacific, it would be able “to effectively veto Americans’ access to the world’s economic centre of gravity”. The strategy document also urged allies to do more to boost collective defence in the region. The NDS said the US was not trying to dominate, strangle or humiliate China. “Our goal is simple: To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies.”
3W notes this NDS essentially confirms our analysis of US Grand Strategy following the release of the National Security Strategy 2025. At that time we said:
“Firstly, the US has acknowledged the failure of its geopolitical strategies over the past 15 or so years. It has not been able to keep China down. And it cannot, today, take on China and expect the outcome to be favourable to the US. For that reason, the US focus is now no longer on global hegemony, but regional hegemony.
Secondly, as a regional hegemon the US will try to keep China from becoming a regional hegemon, through partnering with other countries in the Asia-Pacific hemisphere. The difference here is that in the past, under a global hegemon ambition the US aimed at determining the Asia-Pacific order. Now, as a regional order, it doesn’t care what the order is. It just wants to prevent a regional hegemon from appearing in the Asia-Pacific.
Thirdly, the above means that the US is adjusting its strategy in recognition of current realities. The ambition is no longer to keep China down, but to keep China from becoming a hegemon in the Asia-Pacific. It may develop a strong economy, and even a strong military. But it must be prevented from being able to use these strengths to order its backyard in a way that benefits it. The US should therefore be expected to offer increased military support to countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, to enable them to stand up to China – for which these countries will have to pay.”
Secondly, we do want to take a look at Davos, last week, focusing in particular in the speech given by Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney as he excellently summarized the current situation – as well as why the Europeans are struggling to effectively deal with it. “We participated in the rituals [of the international rules-based order] and we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality. This bargain no longer works,” Carney said, according to Bloomberg. “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” Carney noted that “Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited,” writes the BBC. He also said “Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call” that geography and historic alliances no longer guaranteed security or prosperity. Carney further said the “old order is not coming back” and urged fellow middle powers to come together. “Middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” Carney said. The full speech, which apparently Carney wrote himself, can be seen here. 3W summarizes Carney’s statements as follows.
Firstly, international law was always a lie. It appeared to be real, if you were living in a few select countries around the world (North America, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea). If, however, you happened to have been born in Latin America, Africa or the other parts of Asia, then you would have had nearly daily experience with the reality that the powerful bully and terrorise the weak to exploit them. Secondly, Europe is at a loss because its political leaders grew up in the system where they were top of the world, as a loyal agent to the US. But that they are not anymore, because the US will use and abuse its “allies” for its own interests, its political leaders do not know what to do anymore. They are used to getting crumbs when loyally serving their master in the White House. So all they can imagine doing when getting bullied and terrorised by this White House, just like the poor African nations, is show more loyalty and submission to the US. Thirdly, there are some politicians in the western hemisphere than can see what is going on. They should expect to be persecuted relentlessly by the US until they shut up and submit. Following his speech, first, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick belittled and ridiculed Carney. “Do you think China is going to open their economy to accept exports from Canada? This is the silliest thing I’ve ever seen,” Lutnick said in an interview with Bloomberg. Then, Trump withdrew his invitation to Canada for it to join his new Board of Peace, writes The Associated Press. “Dear Prime Minister Carney: Please let this Letter serve to represent that the Board of Peace is withdrawing its invitation to you regarding Canada’s joining, what will be, the most prestigious Board of Leaders ever assembled, at any time. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump wrote in a social media post. Then the US began to threaten Carney and Canada. “Canada lives because of the United States,” Trump said, according to The Associated Press. “Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” Trump also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on goods imported from Canada if America’s northern neighbour goes ahead with a China trade deal, writes Axios.
Turning to the (growing) list of current geopolitical hotspots.
As to Gaza, on Sunday 3W noted that the plan to reopen the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt was being used by Israel to further its objective of a depopulation of the strip (to make way for Zionist settlers). Later that day, however, Israel increased its demands, saying that the crossing will only be opened after the body of the last remaining Israeli prisoner in Gaza is located and retrieved, writes The National. For context, according to the ceasefire agreement signed by Hamas and Israel, the border crossing should have been opened already, to allow the free movement of people.
Just in case anyone thought this means Israel is going against the US, a delegation of US officials held talks with Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a meeting on Saturday, writes The National. The US delegation involved Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Aryeh Lightstone and Josh Gruenbaum. 3W notes this means the US sent Jewish Zionists to talk with Jewish Zionists. Unsurprisingly, US officials described the meeting as “productive partnership” and said the two sides are “working very closely together to try and determine what the right next steps are, so that we can keep the ceasefire and turn it into a long and enduring peace in Gaza”.
The Associated Press writes that on Monday, recovered the body of the last remaining Israeli prisoner in Gaza. Axios adds that Hamas helped the Israelis to find and retrieve the body. To show their appreciation, Israel has since announced it will not open the Rafah border crossing as agreed in the ceasefire, but only in a limited capacity. While US president Trump demanded that Hamas now disarms – and thereby surrenders, accepting to be hunted by the Alliance in the same manner that Hezbollah has been since it agreed to the ceasefire in Lebanon (more on that below).
As to Lebanon, Israel’s serious violations of the ceasefire agreement continue. Israeli strikes killed at least two people on Sunday in attacks targeting the eastern Bekaa Valley and several villages in south Lebanon, including Bouslaiya and Aita Al Shaab, writes The National. More than 350 Lebanese have now been killed by Israel since the start of the ceasefire agreement.
As to Iran, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and three accompanying warships have arrived in the Middle East, writes The Associated Press. The strike group as in the Indian Ocean, US Central Command said, and not in the Arabian Sea, which borders Iran.
US president Trump said that Iran wants to cut a deal to prevent another US – Israel Alliance attack on the country. “They want to make a deal”, he said according to Axios. “I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.” A US official said the White House “is open for business” when it comes to negotiations with Iran. “If they want to contact us and they know what the terms are, then we’re going to have the conversation”. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are exchanging messages on an “informal” basis, the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency reported, writes Bloomberg.
3W notes that what this really means is that through a military build up, the Alliance is pressuring Iran to submit to its demands. We also note that the Alliance’s demands are designed to weaken Iran to such a level that it can never resist any Alliance demand again. In our assessment, therefore, Iran makes the same mistake as Europe in its dealings with the US. It believes there is a “negotiated way out”, when in reality the Alliance will accept nothing less than unconditional surrender. If one recognizes the facts as they are, Iran has only one way forward, and that is accepting it will be persecuted by the Alliance, and working on all fronts to reduce the Alliance’s ability to hurt it. That means more firmly integrating into the BRICS hemisphere, and… preparing a nuclear weapon, the means to deliver it, and demonstrate the willingness to use it in self-defence.
Meanwhile, security forces from the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and specialised units from the US have begun a large-scale tactical training event, the Arabian Gulf Security 4, writes The National. It involves police forces and security agencies from all six GCC countries, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait. 3W notes this news because it should be remembered next time a GCC country issues a formal statement saying it will not support a US – Israel Alliance attack on Iran…
As to Venezuela, the current state of play was made clear by a Semafor article late last week. The Trump administration had completed its first sale of Venezuelan crude oil, valued at $500 million, and it holds the proceeds. It will give these funds to Venezuela, because its current government has “fully cooperated” with the US, stated a US official.
As to Taiwan, China made a major announcement over the weekend, saying it was investigating the army’s top general, Zhang Youxia, for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, writes The Associated Press. The Defense Ministry said Saturday that authorities were investigating Zhang, the senior of the two vice chairs of the powerful Central Military Commission, China’s top military body, and general Liu Zhenli, a lower member of the commission who was in charge of the military’s Joint Staff Department. “Xi Jinping has completed one of the biggest purges of China’s military leadership in the history of the People’s Republic,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Thomas added that the purge “makes China’s threat toward Taiwan weaker in the short term but stronger in the long term.” It would make a military escalation against the island riskier in the immediate term because of “a high command in disarray,” but in the long term would mean the army has a more loyal and less corrupt leadership with more military capabilities, he said.
Nikkei Asia adds that Zhang and Xi had a long relationship dating back to their early days as fellow “second-generation reds,” a term for the descendants of revolutionary-era Chinese Communist Party leaders. Zhang’s late father was a heavyweight in the PLA and one of the “founding generals” of the People’s Republic of China. Zhang fought in the Sino-Vietnamese conflicts in the 1980s and was first elevated to the CMC in 2018, during the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress. The Wall Street Journal adds that Zang stands accused of leaking China’s nuclear secrets to the US. WSJ speculates that Zang was operating too independently from Xi, and that the move was designed by Xi to prevent a military coup in China, by bringing the military firmly under his control.