Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), Our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the Saudi – UAE tensions in Yemen. 3W has covered developments in Yemen, involving the proxies of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, closely – see here and here.
The UAE was pushing its proxy the Southern Transitional Council, or STC, to establish and independent Southern Yemen. Meanwhile the Saudi’s were supporting its proxy the Presidential Leadership Council or PLC, to maintain a unified Yemeni front against the Houthi’s. This conflict led to the Saudi’s attacking a weapons shipment from the UAE to its proxy, and publicly demanding that the UAE back off.
Based on the latest information at hand, it is now clear to us at 3W that behind this conflict between the Saudi’s and the UAE was the US. We explain why in the below
Furthermore, we look at:
- Israel’s plan to cut the West Bank into two via a new settlement project
- The US proposed “Abraham Accord” between Israel and Syria
- The agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine between Europe and the US
- The latest regarding Venezuela, where the Trump administration is now setting out its demands to the new Venezuelan president, which include removal of China, Russia, Cuba and Iran “spies” and a payment of 30 and 50 million barrels of oil
- The seriousness of the US threats against Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Iran, Greenland an others, following the military operation against Venezuela
- The issue of Taiwan, as China has banned exports of “dual-use items” to Japan in response to the latter’s alignment with the current government of the island territory
- The Trump plan to get Venezuela to significantly increase its oil production in 18 months time
- India’s continued purchases of Russian oil
- China’s efforts to electrify shipping
Geopolitics
As to Palestine, Israel has cleared the final hurdle before starting construction on the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem that will effectively cut the West Bank in two, writes The Associated Press. Work on the project could now begin within the month. The project was under development for decades, but paused under pressure from previous US administrations. The fact that it is now able to progress therefore indicates the US has changed its position on the matter, and supports Israel to create the conditions that make a Palestinian state impossible and thereby further the project for a “Jewish only” Palestine.
As to Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been clashing via their proxies, first, the leader of Yemen’s southern separatists, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC), fled to an unknown destination on Wednesday, after skipping an airplane flight to Riyadh for talks to tackle a crisis that caused a major feud between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, writes Reuters. Rumours are that al-Zubaidi has moved large forces for a renewed offensive against the Saudi-led Presidential Leadership Council or PLC.
More importantly, CNN writes that Saudi Arabia believes the UAE mobilized Yemeni separatist forces in provinces bordering the kingdom after being falsely informed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had asked US President Donald Trump during a White House visit in November to impose sanctions on Abu Dhabi over its alleged support for a warring party in Sudan’s civil war. Riyadh has reached out to the UAE to explain that it made no such request. In the 3W view, the fact that CNN “learned this story” from anonymous sources indicates that the US is gently trying to restore some calm in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. We also believe that the US was actively involved in the Saudi strikes against the UAE proxy in southern Yemen, because the Saudi military, similar to Ukraine, is not capable of using its longer-range weaponry without US targeting support. In other words, at 3W we believe the US guided the Saudi’s and used them to push back against the UAE’s endeavours in Yemen, because a new breakup of Yemen into a North and South is not part of the US plan for the Greater Middle East. After this, the US constructed the face-saving exit from the resulting tensions, which is that the whole affair was just a misunderstanding. It was not, however, and that is why, in the 3W view, CNN also writes that it “understands that further Saudi strikes targeting the STC remain on the table should the separatists not withdraw”. This we see as a message from the US to the UAE to back off in Yemen and accept this face-saving exit from the current tensions and calm things down, or face even greater punishment. The move by the head of the STC means it is not clear at this stage the UAE will back down as the US demands.
As to Syria, the US on Tuesday presented Israel and Syria with a new proposal for a security pact between them that includes establishing a joint economic zone on both sides of the border, writes Axios. A US official said each side would send representatives to the fusion cell to focus on diplomatic talks, military, intelligence and commercial ties. The US also proposed a joint US-Israeli-Syrian “fusion cell” in Amman, Jordan to oversee the security situation in Southern Syria and host further talks on demilitarization and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. A US official said each side would send representatives to the fusion cell to focus on diplomatic talks, military, intelligence and commercial ties.
As to Ukraine, when a coalition of Ukraine’s allies gathered for a summit in Paris this week, they were joined by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, president Trump’s son-in-law, as well as America’s top general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, writes Reuters. The discussions were designed to flesh out details of security guarantees for Ukraine by Europe and the US. A statement by the representatives at the summit said that allies will participate in a proposed US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism. Officials have said this would likely involve drones, sensors and satellites, not US troops. The statement also pledged a European-led “Multinational Force for Ukraine … to support the rebuilding of Ukraine’s armed forces and support deterrence” with “the proposed support of the US”. While Europe presents this statement as evidence the US remains solidly behind Ukraine, in the 3W assessment the language indicates a more cautious position of the US. It has not committed to any hard security guarantees under which the US army would defend Ukraine. The language the US agreed seems more designed to give the Europeans the impression Washington is with them, without committing the US to any meaningful beyond “monitoring”. Beyond this, the whole effort is fruitless as Russia will not accept the security guarantees the Europeans are seeking for Ukraine. Before Europe gets the US to support such guarantees, if it tries to do this Russia should be expected to escalate dramatically to take full control over Ukraine before the guarantees can be implemented.
As to Venezuela, the Trump administration is setting out the agenda that it wants Venezuela’s new president Delcy Rodríguez to follow. It is pressing her, firstly, to dismiss all suspected spies and other intelligence agents from China, Russia, Cuba and Iran from the South American country, writes Axios. In addition, Trump has demanded that Venezuela “hand over” to the US between “30 and 50 MILLION” barrels of oil, writes Axios. Trump said on his social media account the sanctioned oil will be sold at market price, and the resulting revenue will be controlled “by me, as President of the United States” to “ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” 3W notes that at current oil prices, the US demand equates to a payment by Venezuela of about $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion.
Meanwhile, the keep up the pressure, Trump previously said the US would conduct a second military operation in Venezuela if Venezuela failed to comply with the administration’s demands, while US secretary of state Rubio said the US would maintain its oil “quarantine” to get Venezuela’s new leaders to comply with the Trump administration’s wishes.
What Venezuela is experiencing is mafia-style blackmail, pure and simple, 3W notes. And, we add, anyone who believes this is going to end in Venezuela only, is a fool. Since their Venezuela invasion Trump and Rubio have together threatened six other countries, writes Axios. Cuba, Colombia and even Mexico. Trump also said an operation to depose Colombian President Gustavo Petro “sounds good to me.” A day earlier, Trump said the leftist leader has to “watch his ass.” Trump also threatened to attack Iran, in the name of protecting those protesting economic hardship there. And there’s Greenland, which Trump says the US will be taking over. Stephen Miller, another architect of the move on Maduro, meanwhile said all the rest of the Western Hemisphere should be on notice: “We’re a superpower, and under President Trump we’re going to conduct ourselves as a superpower,” Regarding Greenland the US White House has officially said the “U.S. military is always an option,” writes Nikkei Asia. “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander in chief’s disposal.”
The seriousness of these threats is indicated by the fact that Maduro’s Cuban bodyguards were all killed in the US attack on Venezuela. On Tuesday, Cuba released the names, ranks and ages of the 32 Cuban military personnel killed, writes The Associated Press. “Our compatriots fulfilled their duty with dignity and heroism, falling after fierce resistance in direct combat against the attackers, or as a result of the bombing of the facilities,” an official statement said. In the 3W view, this number of dead indicates “targeted killing”.
As to Taiwan, the US military operation in Venezuela, and the loudmouthed statements from Washington DC that “the Western Hemisphere is ours!”, in the 3W view increases the chances that China will opt for a military operation to bring the island back into the fold sooner rather than later. One reason is, the US turn to militarism means that a war over Taiwan is essentially becoming inevitable. Whatever China does to avoid it, the US will use war to prevent China from achieving its objective. The other reason is, the US has via its attack on Venezuela undermined the “moral case” against a Chinese military intervention in Taiwan. Further to the issue of Taiwan, the subject continues to increase tensions between China and Japan, writes Nikkei Asia. The start of the tensions was when Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be deemed an existential threat to Japan. In response, most recently China has banned exports of dual-use items to Japan that can be used for military purposes. Dual-use items are goods, software or technologies that have both civilian and military applications, and includes rare earth elements that are essential for making drones and chips.
For what it’s worth, Japan said on Wednesday that China’s ban on exports of dual-use items to the country was “absolutely unacceptable and deeply regrettable”, writes Reuters.
Energy
US president Trump will meet Friday with US oil executives at the White House as he presses the industry to invest in reviving Venezuela’s production, writes The Wall Street Journal. The meeting is expected to include representatives from Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips. Trump believes the US industry could expand operations in Venezuela in less than 18 months. “A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue,” Trump said, according to Reuters.
Russian crude oil cargoes continue to make up a quarter of India’s total imports of the commodity, writes Nikkei Asia. New Delhi has sharply cut its reliance on Russian crude over the past half year, with Moscow’s share of total crude oil imports dropping from 44% in June, which was the high-water mark of monthly shipments from Russia to India in 2025, to about 25% in December. But this still leaves Russia as India’s most important supplier of crude oil. In the 3W view, India and the US agreed a deal on Russian crude oil. While the US wanted India to end its purchases from Russia completely, the Indians wanted to maximize the purchases not only for domestic use but also for re-export following processing into products. The “deal” is that India only buys from Russia for domestic use purpose, but no longer for processing and re-export purposes. This explains India’s “continued but lower” purchases.
Chevron and private equity firm Quantum Capital Group are teaming up on a bid to buy the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil, writes The Financial Times. If a deal is clinched, Chevron and Quantum plan to divvy up the assets, valued at $22bn by Lukoil, between them.
Technology
China’s leading supplier of electric-vehicle batteries, CATL, is quickly branching out into battery-powered ships to achieve further growth. CATL has made deliveries for nearly 900 electric-ship projects, the company said, according to Nikkei Asia. CATL has established a wholly owned subsidiary named Contemporary Amperex Electric Ship Technology (CAES) to drive this push forward. CAES’ strength lies in its cost-competitiveness. The company offers a lineup of low-cost lithium-iron phosphate batteries tailored to customers’ needs, including long-life and fast-charging types. When used in conjunction with control systems that manage cruising speed and power consumption, the company claims to be able to reduce power consumption during ship operation by more than 30% from typical levels. CAES also offers a battery replacement service. Batteries are housed in large containers installed on the ship. Those running low are exchanged for fresh containers in about 15 minutes at swapping stations in ports.