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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the situation in Iran. Protests have taken place in a number of cities in the country, and have led to violence and death. 3W notes that since mass protests are never spontaneous but always organized, the timing of these protests is suspicious as they coincided with the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu specifically on Iran.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The latest development in southern Yemen, where the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the UAE continues
- The latest round of US sponsored talks between Syria and Israel on an Abraham Accords
- The shake up at the top of Ukraine security institutions and government functions, which in the 3W view indicates policy changes are afoot
- The US plan to use the threat of additional military strikes to force Venezuela’s leadership into compliance with American demands
- America’s threats to forcefully take over Greenland from Denmark
- How the US is forcing its oil companies to return to Venezuela “fast and big,” and why bringing Venezuela’s oil industry back to its prime is a geostrategic priority for the US
Geopolitics
As to Iran, after a week of protests, Iran’s supreme leader insisted Saturday that “rioters must be put in their place”, a statement that is seen as giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations, writes The Associated Press. “We talk to protesters, the officials must talk to them,” Khamenei said. “But there is no benefit to talking to rioters. Rioters must be put in their place.” The violence surrounding the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people so far. Nevertheless, the protests show no sign of stopping. US president Donald Trump on Friday urged them on by saying that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters” the United States “will come to their rescue.”
3W is suspicious regarding the protest movement, for three reasons. It is not that the people of Iran do not have legitimate reasons for protesting – there is significant for criticism of Iran’s government and institutions, as long as one considers that a significant part of the country’s problems is caused by the US sanctions and the US – Israel Alliance military operations against the country. The reasons for our suspicion are first because large scale demonstrations do not happen spontaneously. Ever. They are organized. Second is the timing of the protests, as they essentially coincided with Israeli prime minister Netanyahu’s visit to the White House to discuss the US – Israel Alliance plans against Iran government. Third is a public statement from Mike Pompeo, the previous head of the CIA and US secretary of state, who according to The National on Saturday said that Israel’s spy agency Mossad is operating inside Iran alongside the protestors. “Happy New Year to every Iranian in the streets. Also to every Mossad agent walking beside them”, Petreus wrote on X. “The Iranian regime is in trouble. Bringing in mercenaries is its last best hope,” Pompeo wrote on X. “Riots in dozens of cities and the Basij under siege — Mashhad, Tehran, Zahedan. Next stop: Baluchestan.” he added.
As to Yemen, Yemen ‘s separatist movement, Southern Transitional Council, or STC, on Friday announced a constitution for an independent nation in the south, writes The Associated Press. The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council depicted the announcement as a declaration of independence for the south. Last month, STC-linked fighters seized control of two southern provinces from Saudi-backed forces and took over the Presidential Palace in the south’s main city, Aden. Members of the internationally recognized government — which had been based in Aden — fled to the Saudi-capital Riyadh. Last week 3W noted that the Saudi’s took an unusual public stance against the UAE over the development, accusing it of fomenting unrest in southern Yemen, after organizing a weapons delivery to the STC.
In response to the harsh Saudi words, the UAE declared it had ended its “anti-terror” operation in southern Yemen, writes The National. But clearly, 3W notes, this did not result in the STC adjusting its position of pushing for a separate South Yemen.
So on Saturday, in response to the STC independent declaration, Saudi warplanes carried out new airstrikes against the STC, writes The Associated Press. An official with the STC told The Associated Press that more than 100 Saudi airstrikes struck multiple locations across Hadramout over a 24 hours period.
Following the attacks, Saudi Arabia called on Yemen’s southern factions to enter into talks in Riyadh “to develop a comprehensive vision for just solutions,” writes Bloomberg. In response, the foreign ministry of the UAE released a statement through which it “calls upon the brotherly Yemeni people to prioritise wisdom, exercise restraint, and work to ensure security and stability in the country,” writes The National. “The UAE further affirms that de-escalation and constructive dialogue remain the most effective path to overcoming current challenges, contributing to lasting stability in Yemen and the region, and fulfilling the aspirations of their peoples for security and prosperity.”
As to Syria, the US keeps pushing Israel to agree a new security arrangement deal with Syria. Axios writes that senior Syrian and Israeli officials are meeting today in Paris, to restart negotiations. President Trump’s Syria envoy Tom Barrack is mediating the new round of negotiations. This is the fifth round of talks, but the first in nearly two months. The US goal is a security pact that includes the de-militarization of southern Syria and Israeli withdrawal from the parts of Syria it occupied after the collapse of the Assad regime. Israel is not in agreement with this US proposal, 3W notes, as it wants to stay maintain its military occupation of the Golan Heights in their entirety.
As to Ukraine, president Zelenskyy has launched a major shake up of Ukraine’s security apparatus, appointing his top military intelligence chief as head of the presidential office and nominating a new defence minister, writes The Financial Times. Zelenskyy selected Kyrylo Budanov as head of the presidential office, a position that gives him the role of chief of staff. Budanov was previously head of the HUR, the military intelligence agency. The president appointed Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the foreign intelligence service, as the new boss of the HUR. Zelenskyy said he had offered the position of defence minister to Mykhailo Fedorov, a longtime ally who has overseen the modernisation of administrative services as digital transformation minister. Defence minister Denys Shmyhal is nominated to become energy minister. Zelenskyy also moved Serhii Deineko, head of the state border guard service, to the ministry of internal affairs. 3W notes that moves such as these typically indicate a fundamental shift in policy – new people are to execute the new policy. Budanov is among the few Ukrainian officials to keep an open line with Moscow through the war, FT notes.
As to Venezuela, after removing president Nicolas Maduro from power, the Trump administration intends to intimidate the Venezuelan leader’s inner circle into toeing the US line through threats of further military action, writes Reuters. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One traveling from Florida to Washington that more military intervention was on the table. “If they don’t behave, we will do a second strike,” he said. Trump said he wants Rodriguez to give the US and private companies “total access” to Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, as well as roads and bridges that are in disrepair. If she and the interim government do not cooperate, Trump told reporters they could face a strong response. “I just say that she will face a situation probably worse than Maduro,” he said.
The threat appears to be working as Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president of Venezuela, has asked the US to work with her country, writes Bloomberg. “We extend an invitation to the US government to work together on a cooperation agenda, aimed at shared development, within the framework of international law, and to strengthen lasting community coexistence,” she said in a statement released late on Sunday.
Beyond Venezuela, yesterday 3W noted that US president Trump and his secretary of state Rubio threatened Cuba, Colombia and Mexico with a similar fate. The Associated Press writes that as Trump flew back to Washington from his home in Florida on Sunday, he told reporters. “It’s so strategic right now. Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it.” Obviously, the Europeans are upset by these US threats. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in a statement that Trump has “no right to annex” the territory. 3W notes that the EU was not able to take a stance in support of international law when the US invaded Venezuela. Consequently it should not expect the rest of the world to take a very strong position in defense of Greenland when the US again tramples over international law to forcefully make the territory American. You regret the loss of soft power the moment you need it.
Energy
White House and State Department officials have told U.S. oil executives in recent weeks that they would need to return to Venezuela quickly and invest significant capital in the country to revive the damaged oil industry if they wanted compensation for assets expropriated by Venezuela two decades ago, writes Reuters. In the 2000s, Venezuela expropriated the assets of some international oil companies that declined to give state-run oil company PDVSA increased operational control, as demanded by late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Chevron was among companies that negotiated to stay in the country and form joint ventures with state-run PDVSA, while rivals ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips left and filed for arbitration.
Meanwhile, Javier Blas of Bloomberg is catching on to what 3W has previously mentioned is the ultimate objective of the US invasion of Venezuela. The crude oil production of the US, Canada, Mexico and Venezuela, combined with that of the other states in Latin America such as Brazil, Argentina and Guyana, equates to 40% of global crude oil production, Blas notes. That means the US, through the NSS2025’s “Don-Roe Doctrine”, has a dominant influence in the market for what still is the world’s most important commodity – oil. The US can now decide what the oil price will be, by forcing countries in its backyard to increase or decrease production. In addition, the US can now decide on where the oil goes – and where not (read: China). 3W notes that the US control over the countries of the Arabian Peninsula means it effectively control even more 40%. Its pressures in Iran and Nigeria are designed to establish an effective stranglehold over world oil production.