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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we answer some of our reader’s questions regarding developments in the Middle East.
It’s been 3 months since the Gaza peace deal. How has it changed the situation for the Palestinians in Gaza?
While the intensity of Israel’s attacks on Gaza has decreased since the declaration of the ceasefire on October 10, 2025, Israel has nevertheless violated the agreement with near-daily attacks, killing hundreds of people. Israel violated the ceasefire agreement at least 969 times from October 10 to December 28, through the continuation of attacks by air, artillery and direct shootings, writes Al Jazeera.
AJ adds that Israel also continues to choke aid into the Gaza Strip. From October 10 to December 28 only 19,764 trucks entered Gaza averaging 253 trucks per day. That is only 42% of the number agreed under the ceasefire deal. Israel has blocked essential and nutritious food items, including meat, dairy, and vegetables, crucial for a balanced diet. Instead, non-nutritious foodstuffs are being allowed, such as snacks, chocolate, crisps, and soft drinks.
Hamas, meanwhile, released all 20 remaining living Israeli captives on October 13, as per the terms of the ceasefire agreement. As of December 3, Hamas has returned 27 Israeli captives’ bodies. Only one body remains in Gaza, but Hamas has said it requires heavy excavation equipment to recover the remaining captive’s body buried under the rubble from Israeli bombardment, and Israel refuses to allow such equipment to enter Gaza.
This data makes clear that while Hamas has lived up to its side of the deal, Israel continues to squeeze the Palestinians between murder and hunger.
During the most recent meeting between US president Trump and the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, 3W noted that the US did not raise Israel’s lack of adherence to the terms of the ceasefire deal as an issue. Instead, the US spoke about moving into the second phase of the deal, as if the first phase has been completed in accordance with what was agreed. This indicates the US is not fundamentally objecting to Israel’s behavior.
In fact, The Guardian writes that current operations in Gaza, including the military attacks and the management of aid, are managed from a command center, the so-called Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), where the US and Israeli militaries collaborate. “It is an integration. It is hand in glove. They (the Israelis) remain the hand, and the CMMC have become the glove over that hand,” a US official said.
What’s been happening with the Gaza Stabilisation Force?
Under the terms of the ceasefire deal, during the second phase of the ceasefire an international military force, to be named Stabilization Force (SF) should be established to ensure security in the Gaza Strip. This force would enable the Israeli military to withdraw from Gaza, and would perform the task of disarming Hamas.
In December the US organized a conference in Qatar to get countries to support the SF. Egypt, Indonesia, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait, Morocco, Bahrain, Bosnia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are among the attendees, an Arab official told The Times of Israel. Turkey was left out of the meeting because Israel strongly opposes a deployment of Turkish soldiers on its border. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are working with the US to secure support for the deployment of troops to Gaza, including funding.
According to The Wall Street Journal, 19 countries approached have communicated a willingness to assist, including by providing troops, logistical support, or equipment. But so far, no country has publicly communicated support for the SF.
Ahead of Netanyahu’s recent trip to Washington DC, the Israeli’s said 3 countries have officially offered to support the SF, writes YNet. Indonesia is one of them, although publicly it has said it is prepared to deploy up to 20,000 troops only to take on health and construction-related tasks in Gaza.
3W notes that the US and Israel have established a military base in Israel, the earlier mentioned Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), from which the operations of the stabilization force are to be managed. The Guardian writes that the CMCC operates without any input from the Palestinian side. This indicates that the SF is designed to manage security for Israel; its mandate does not include protecting or securing the right or interests of the Palestinians. It will be a colonial occupation force.
In other words, any country to provides support for the SF will effectively be providing support for the US–Israeli plan for Gaza. It will not be supporting the Palestinians.
What’s been happening with the Gaza International Transitional Authority?
Under the terms of the ceasefire deal, during the third phase of the ceasefire the US would establish a Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) with the mandate of functioning as the civil authority in Gaza until a permanent solution is agreed between Israel and the Palestinians. The Gaza International Transitional Authority is also referred to as the Board of Peace.
Originally, former UK prime minister Tony Blair, a close associate of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, was identified to lead the GITA. But his nomination has been withdrawn following objections from a number of Muslim and Arab states, writes The Guardian.
US president Trump has said that an announcement about which leaders will serve on CITA will be made early 2026, writes Reuters.
The naming of the entity indicates the plan does not include the naming of Palestinians to the GITA. Similar to the SF, therefore, this entity should be expected to be a colonial occupation force that serves the interests of the US and Israel, against the interests of the Palestinians.
Are the US and Israel aligned on the future for Gaza?
Officially, the US and Israel are in agreement about the future of Gaza. As to what exactly this future is to look like, very little has been made publicly available, notes The Middle East Council Affairs, other than the objective being to “rebuild and energize Gaza.”
On the ground, however, Israel is acting contrary to the ceasefire agreement.
The New Yorker writes that since the ceasefire began, Israel has constructed at least thirteen new military outposts inside Gaza and expanded forty-eight existing ones. Israel has built roads connecting these outposts to its domestic military bases. This way, effectively, Israeli has brought under its permanent control an area of Gaza that is much larger than the buffer zone that was agreed as part of the ceasefire agreement.
During his most recent meeting with US president Trump, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu also focused the conversation on Gaza on “disarming Hamas”. As we at 3W noted in `our analysis of that meeting:
“What Netanyahu wants at this stage, as it means all attention is focused on what the Palestinians need to do according to the ceasefire deal. This means Israel can do whatever it wants to do, ignore all its commitments, because the mental state of the US is such that if then Hamas in response refuses to abide by its side of the deal, the US will blame Hamas and pressure it, ignoring Israel. The end result will then be US support for a new war against the Palestinians of Gaza – which is what Netanyahu really wants to achieve.”
Gaza is really an example of how Israel manipulates the US. It never officially objects to US plans that do not align with the vision of Tel Aviv. Instead, it officially agrees, but uses its agents inside the US political, economic and military establishment, as well as the close personal relationships between Israeli and US officials, to change the viewpoint of the US. Such that the US gradually adjusts its plans to align them with the vision of Tel Aviv.
This, in the 3W view, is exactly what is happening now in Gaza. Slowly but steadily, Israel is changing the agenda, paving a way towards a renewed all-out military attack on Gaza, ostensibly to “disarm Hamas”, but in reality to remove the Palestinians from Gaza. As mentioned also by The New Yorker, Netanyahu continues to publicly speak about a “voluntary emigration” of the Palestinians from Gaza.